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来源：百度文库编辑：神马文学网时间：2024/04/27 21:19:03

Samuelson的警言
　　
　　作者：曼昆(Gregory Mankiw)
　　原文：Samuelson's Words of Warning
　　
　　出色的经济学家兼教科书作家Paul Samuelson的悲观看法(英文)：
　　
　　到现在为止，中国一直都愿意通过购买回报最低的美国国债，保持其可循环资源。这仍是个好消息，但这几乎不可能一直持续下去。
　　
　　会有那么一天，可能很快，中国将开始悲观地看待美元。对未来的美国经济来说，这意外着致命的打击。我相信，在美元开始被无绪操作时，真正的全球性经济恐慌才令人害怕。
　　
　　中国，日本，韩国现在持有美元，不是因为他们认为美元安全。那是什么原因呢？他们这样做主要是因为这种方式能延长其由出口带动的增长。
　　
　　担心未来收支平衡的人不止我一个。比如Warren Buffett，他已成了一个贸易保护论者。贸易保护主义的情况可能很快就会变得更恶劣。*
　　
　　奥巴马总统正在挣扎着是否要支持自由贸易，但他是个谨慎的中立派总统，要他妥协会让他倍受压力。
　　
　　而且他将会长期受到新的压力。他身边的专家们应该现在为美国制定相应计划，让美国从属于中国，后者是当今世界经济领导力量最集中的地方。

Samuelson's Words of Warning

Paul Samuelson, the great economist and textbook author, has some ominous things to say:

Up until now, China has been willing to hold her recycled resources in the form of lowest-yield U.S. Treasury bills. That's still good news. But almost certainly it cannot and will not last.

Some day -- maybe even soon -- China will turn pessimistic on the U.S. dollar. That means lethal troubles for the future U.S. economy. When a disorderly run against the dollar occurs, I believe a truly global financial panic is to be feared.

China, Japan and Korea now hold dollars not because they think dollars will stay safe. Why then? They do this primarily because that is a way that can prolong their export-led growth.

I am not alone in this paranoid future balance-of-payment fear. Warren Buffett, for one, has turned protectionist. Alas, protectionism may well soon become more maligned.*

President Obama struggles to support free trade. But as a canny centrist president, he will be very pressed to compromise.

And he will be under new chronic pressures. His experts should right now be making plans for America to become subordinate to China where world economic leadership is concerned.