Lex专栏：全球通胀不同炎凉

Too hot and too cold at the same time: the developed world fears deflation while in much of the developing world overcooked inflation preys on the mind.

冰火两重天：发达国家担心通缩，而在许多发展中国家，让人头疼的却是过高的通胀。

The current inflation rate in almost all rich countries is below 2 per cent (Australia and the UK are exceptions). Morgan Stanley expects a 1.5 per cent rate for the whole group in 2010. And unless rapid economic growth stages a welcome but unexpected return, the predominant direction of pressure on prices and wages will remain resolutely downwards.

在几乎所有富裕国家，当前的通胀率都低于2%（澳大利亚和英国除外）。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预计，2010年富国总体通胀率为1.5%。除非经济出人意料地恢复快速增长，否则物价和工资所承受的主要压力仍必然是下行方向。

By contrast, the emerging market inflation rate is about three times higher – expected at 5.4 per cent in 2010 – with central banks scrambling to slow the momentum.

相比之下，新兴市场的通胀率则高出了三倍左右——2010年预计为5.4% —— 各国央行正争相遏制通胀势头。

The main inflation difference between rich and poor countries is living standards: rising commodity prices have much more influence on the total cost of living for the poor. As prosperity spreads, more spending goes to items that have relatively stable prices: processed goods, services and rents (house prices do not figure in most inflation indices).

富国与穷国之间主要的通胀差异体现在生活标准上：大宗商品价格持续上涨，对穷人总体生活成本的影响要大得多。随着社会日益繁荣，人们把更多的支出花在价格相对稳定的商品上：加工品、服务和租金（大多数通胀指标都不计入房价）。

The global inflation imbalance can be traced back to the post-crisis stimulus, in both rich and poor countries. A significant portion of the river of cheap money flowed into commodity markets. The initial price recovery caused no problems, but the trend now threatens to create a vicious circle.

寻根溯源，全球通胀失衡可以归因于富国和穷国在危机后所采取的刺激措施。很大一部分廉价资金流入了大宗商品市场。物价的初步复苏没有造成任何问题，但如今这一趋势很可能形成一种恶性循环。

Central bankers in the rich world are hardly bothered by commodity excess (in the US, food and fuel prices are considered non-core and irrelevant), while their poor-country counterparts see rising prices of basic goods as a threat to monetary and social stability. They have to tighten policy, but raising policy interest rates risks attracting capital flows from still cash-flooded rich countries, creating yet more inflationary pressure.

富国的央行不会为大宗商品价格高企伤脑筋（在美国，食品和燃油价格被认为是非核心及不相关的），而穷国则把基本生活用品价格上涨，视为对货币及社会稳定的一种威胁。他们必须紧缩银根，但上调政策利率又可能吸引资金从现金依然泛滥的富国流入，进一步加剧通胀压力。

Cheap money brings benefits for a time, but, as Goldilocks discovered to her cost, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

廉价资金会带来一时之利，但正如金发姑娘付出代价后所发现的那样：天下没有免费的午餐。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/杨远