中国将加大抑制通胀力度China sets policy to rein in inflation

China will step up efforts to combat inflation next year after prices rose more than 5 per cent in November, according to a statement released after an annual economic policy meeting in Beijing.

根据中国年度经济政策会议后的声明，中国将在明年加大抑制通胀力度。此前发布的数据显示，11月份物价指数上涨逾5%。

The rise in the consumer price index by 5.1 per cent in November was higher than expected, and up from 4.4 per cent in October. It is also well above the government’s 3 per cent inflation target, and will increase pressure on the authorities to raise interest rates and further rein in the huge monetary stimulus of the past two years.

11月消费者价格指数(CPI)从10月份的4.4%升至5.1%，高于预期水平，同时也远高于政府制定的3%的通胀目标，这将加大政府提高利率和进一步遏制过去两年那种巨额货币刺激的压力。

State media said on Sunday, at the conclusion of a three-day conference to set economic policy for 2011, that the government’s goal would be to battle inflation without jeopardising growth.

上周日，在为期三天、旨在制定2011年经济政策的会议结束之际，中国官方媒体报道称，政府目标将是在不影响增长的情况下抑制通胀。

“The priority is to actively and properly handle the relationship between steady and relatively fast economic growth, economic restructuring and managing inflation expectations,” state radio reported.

官方电台报道称：“重点是要积极而正确地处理好保持经济平稳较快增长、调整经济结构和抑制通胀压力的关系。”

The conference reiterated that Chinese currency policy would remain basically stable next year. China remains under heavy international pressure to let the renminbi appreciate.

会议重申，明年中国货币政策将保持基本稳定。中国仍面临要求人民币升值的强大国际压力。

The annual economic meeting chaired by Hu Jintao, China’s president, reaffirmed a shift to a “prudent” monetary policy from the previous “appropriately loose” stance. The shift was announced by the Chinese communist party’s ruling body last week, raising expectations for an imminent increase in interest rates. On Friday, the central bank raised reserve requirements for commercial banks for the fifth time this year – and the third in just over a month – in order to drain liquidity from the financial system.

由中国国家主席胡锦涛主持的这次经济工作年会，再次确认了货币政策从早先的“适度宽松”转向“稳健”。中共中央政治局上周宣布了这一转变，提升了中国即将加息的预期。上周五，中国央行上调商业银行存款准备金率以吸取金融体系中的流动性——这是中国央行年内第五次上调准备金率，也是一个月内的第三次上调。

The weekend’s further increase in inflation, combined with a renewed surge in fixed asset investment and exports, will fuel concerns that the economy is overheating.

上周末发布的数据显示，通胀水平进一步上涨，加之固定资产投资和出口再度飙升，都将引发经济过热的担忧。

The biggest contributor to rising inflation was food prices, which increased 11.7 per cent year-on-year, against 10.1 per cent in October. Non-food inflation also rose from 1.6 per cent in October to 1.9 per cent.

通胀不断上升的最大推手是食品价格——11月同比增长11.7%，而10月份为10.1%。非食品价格涨幅也从10月份的1.6%升至1.9%。

According to Qian Wang at JP Morgan in Hong Kong, strong fiscal spending “coupled with the still accommodative monetary environment . . . and low interest rates raise the risk of overheating by early next year”.

摩根大通(JP Morgan)驻香港的王黔表示，积极的财政支出“加上仍然宽松的货币环境……以及低利率，加大了明年年初经济过热的风险”。

Andy Rothman, at CLSA in Shanghai, warned that the inflation rise was mainly the result of bad weather, which has raised the price of vegetables. Although interest rates might rise by 0.25 per cent by year-end, he did not predict a significant tightening next year.

里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海的安迪•罗斯曼(Andy Rothman)警告称，通胀上升主要是因为恶劣天气——它推升了蔬菜价格。尽管年底前可能加息25个基点，但他预计明年不会出台大规模的紧缩措施。

“Overcapacity and strong competition leaves few firms with the ability to fully pass these higher costs on to final goods prices,” he said.

罗斯曼表示：“由于产能过剩和竞争激烈，没有几家企业能够把这些增加的成本转移到最终产品价格上。”