中国经济数据靠谱吗？ Inflation in China

Spot the odd one out. China’s broad money supply has been increasing at an average annual rate of 25 per cent since January 2009. Gross domestic product grew at a 12 per cent rate in the first quarter, and just over 10 in the second. The official index of annual consumer price inflation, meanwhile, registered just 3.5 per cent last month.

让我们来盘点一下中国数据的异常之处。自2009年1月以来，中国广义货币供应量(M2)以年均25%的幅度增长。今年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长12%，第二季度的增幅则略高于10%。与此同时，上月官方的消费价格指数(CPI)同比仅上涨3.5%。

Rampant price rises helped bring down the Kuomintang in the late 1940s. Could the current government be trying to avoid that fate by cooking the books? Certainly, the National Bureau of Statistics’ CPI basket looks like no other, lumping together items such as recreation and education along with “cultural articles and services.” The headline figures often jar with on-the-ground evidence, such as the surge in the price of a foot-rub or a KFC meal.

物价飞涨是上世纪40年代末国民党垮台的原因之一。现政府会不会为了避免这种命运，而在数据上做手脚呢？当然，国家统计局的CPI篮子看上去就有这种嫌疑。比如，把诸如休闲娱乐和教育这样的项目和“文化用品及服务”捆在了一起。而总体指标往往与实际生活中的证据——比如快速上涨的足底按摩的价格或肯德基(KFC)的价格——不相符。

But the official reading may not be so far off, despite the much more rapid increase in the money supply than in GDP. The ultra-low benchmark one-year bank deposit rate – held at 2.25 per cent since December 2008, and below CPI since February – provides a partial explanation. As Beijing-based finance professor Michael Pettis points out, low yields transfer income away from net savers (Chinese households) in favour of net users of capital (big state-owned enterprises and local and central governments). So long as households provide this subsidy, the inflationary impact of rapid M2 expansion can be contained.

不过，尽管货币供应的增速远快于GDP，这些官方数据或许也不是那么离谱，部分原因在于超低的基准一年期银行存款利率——自2008年12月以来一直保持在2.25%，自今年2月份以来一直低于CPI。正如驻北京的金融学教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)所指出的那样：低利率会把净储蓄者（中国家庭）的收入，转移给净资本使用者（大型国企、中央政府和地方政府）。只要家庭继续提供这份“补贴”，M2快速扩张的通胀效应就可以得到控制。

But this form of financial repression brings its own dangers: asset bubbles, excess capacity and overinvestment. It was no surprise that August’s data dump revealed that while CPI remained subdued, fixed-asset investment was continuing on its merry trajectory, up 25 per cent, year-on-year. One is the flipside of the other.

但这种金融抑制作用有其隐患：会引发资产泡沫、产能过剩和过度投资等问题。难怪8月份的数据有这样的表现：CPI保持温和，而固定资产投资依然高歌猛进，同比增长25%。这是同一个问题的两个方面。