中国：用人民币升值抗击通胀？ Inflation? may? play? lead? role in renminbi appreciation

As politicians move to head off a global “currency war”, few questions loom larger than the extent to which China will allow its currency to strengthen against the US dollar.

随着各国政界人士采取行动，阻止全球“汇率战争”的爆发，目前最突出的问题莫过于，中国将允许人民币对美元升值到何种程度。

The debate has intensified since mid-October when the US Treasury delayed a highly anticipated report on international exchange rates and thereby avoided the delicate question of whether to label China a currency “manipulator”.

10月中旬，美国财政部推迟了市场高度期待的国际汇率报告的发布，就此回避了是否将中国列为汇率“操纵国”的棘手问题。此后，辩论愈演愈烈。

Since then, the renminbi has stopped moving higher against the dollar – and has instead depreciated by 0.2 per cent. Currency traders have also scaled back their bets in the forwards markets on the pace of future appreciation.

自那以来，人民币已停止了对美元的升值——反而贬值了0.2%。外汇交易员也减少了在远期市场上对人民币未来升值速度的押注。

The dip follows a month-long period in which the renminbi rose sharply amid mounting pressure from US politicians, who accuse China of undervaluing its currency to support domestic industry.

此前，美国政界人士不断向中国施加压力，指责中国通过让人民币贬值来支持国内产业。在这种压力下，人民币出现了长达一个月的大幅升值。

Since June, when Beijing cut the renminbi loose from its de facto peg to the dollar, China’s currency has risen 2.5 per cent.

今年6月，中国政府解除了人民币事实上与美元的挂钩。自那以来，人民币升值达2.5%。

While the renminbi will continue to appreciate over the long term, says Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Crédit Agricole, the pace will vary in the coming weeks and months largely according to international political pressure.

法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)策略师戴锐斯•科瓦茨(Dariusz Kowalczyk)表示，虽然长期而言，人民币将继续升值，但未来数周和数个月内，升值速度将在很大程度上随着国际政治压力的情况而变化。

“It’s pretty clear that the appreciation of late-September and early-October was aimed at providing an excuse for the Treasury not to brand China a currency manipulator,” he says. Traders are watching a raft of important political events scheduled for November, including a meeting of G20 heads of government and mid-term elections for the US Congress.

他表示：“很显然，9月底到10月初人民币的升值，目的是为美国财政部不把中国列入汇率操纵国提供借口。”交易员们正密切关注着11月份将发生的一系列重要政治事件，包括20国集团(G20)政府首脑会议和美国国会中期选举。

The Treasury is also finally expected to publish its delayed report on currency practices of its trade partners, although a date has not yet been set.

美国财政部预计也将最终发布被推迟的关于其贸易伙伴汇率操作的报告，但日期尚未确定。

Beijing wants to avoid being classified as a “manipulator” because that could eventually enable the US to impose trade sanctions and prompt other nations to follow suit. Over the weekend, G20 finance chiefs agreed a policy framework to contain large current account surpluses and deficits, which was in keeping with China’s own stated economic goals.

中国政府希望不被列为汇率“操纵国”，因为那可能会使美国最终可以对中国实施贸易制裁，并促使其他国家效仿。上周末，G20财长就控制巨额经常账户盈余和赤字达成了政策框架，这与中国自己所说的经济目标一致。

Critics of China’s currency regime point to the country’s relentless accumulation of foreign exchange reserves as evidence that the renminbi is undervalued.

对中国外汇制度持批评态度的人士指出，中国不断积累的外汇储备，就是人民币被低估的证据。

Data this month showed that the country’s reserves, already by far the largest in the world, increased by a record $194bn in the third quarter to $2,650bn.

本月的数据显示，第三季度，已经位居全球之首的中国外汇储备增至2.65万亿美元，增幅达到创纪录的1940亿美元。

Beijing, for its part, argues that too rapid an appreciation of the renminbi would be too much to bear for China’s export sector and could therefore hurt the global economy.

中国政府从自身的立场出发辩称，人民币的过快升值，将令中国出口行业难以承受，并可能因此影响到全球经济。

Moreover, China’s trade surplus has been falling in recent years.

此外，近年来，中国的贸易顺差一直在下降。

Crédit Agricole forecasts that the surplus will narrow to $140bn in 2011 – equivalent to just 2.6 per cent of gross domestic product – sharply down from 3.8 per cent this year.

法国农业信贷银行预测，2011年，中国的贸易顺差将收窄至1400亿美元，仅相当于国内生产总值的2.6%，较今年的3.8%大幅下降。

But besides foreign pressure, one of the most compelling reasons for China to allow the appreciation of the renminbi is to help fight domestic inflation.

但除了外国压力以外，中国让人民币升值最具说服力的理由之一是，它将有助于抗击国内通胀。

Concern over rising price levels and asset bubbles prompted China to raise interest rates last week for the first time in nearly three years.

对物价水平上升和资产泡沫的担忧，促使中国上周近三年来首度升息。

The move, which follows a strong rebound in growth, is a small step towards scaling back the huge stimulus that China injected into its economy during the financial crisis.

在经济增长强劲反弹后采取的这一举措，是中国迈出的一小步，目的是逐步撤出金融危机期间向经济中注入的大规模刺激。

Win Thin, of Brown Brothers Harriman, believes that China is likely to use currency gains to limit inflation if studies of recent monetary policy tightening from the People’s Bank of China are a guide.

Brown Brothers Harriman的温•辛(Win Thin)认为，如果中国央行(PBoC)最近就货币政策紧缩所作的研究可以作为指导的话，中国有可能会利用本币升值来抑制通胀。

As the PBoC tightened monetary policy in 2006 and 2007, renminbi appreciation was significant.

中国央行2006年和2007年收紧货币政策时，人民币曾大幅升值。

It rose 1.5 per cent against the dollar in the second quarter of 2007, 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2007, 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and to a peak of 4.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2008.

2007年第二季度到第四季度，人民币兑美元汇率分别上升了1.5%、1.3%和2.8%，到2008年一季度，升幅更是达到4.2%的最高水平。

“In other words, the PBoC used a combination of rate hikes, reserve requirement hikes and currency appreciation to help battle rising price pressures,” said Mr Thin. “That’s what we see happening in 2011 too.”

温•辛表示：“换句话说，中国央行综合运用了加息、提高存款准备金率和货币升值等手段，帮助抗击物价上涨的压力。这就是我们将在2011年看到的情形。”

Markets have pared back renminbi appreciation expectations following the rate rise with 12-month non-deliverable forwards pricing in a 3.3 per cent gain in the Chinese currency against the dollar compared with close to 4 per cent at the start of last week.

中国加息后，市场下调了对人民币升值的预期，12个月无本金交割远期汇率显示，人民币对美元将升值3.3%，低于上周初的接近4%。

“Ultimately, it may be that inflationary pressure . . . increases comfort with further foreign exchange moves,” says Dominic Wilson, of Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的多米尼克•威尔逊(Dominic Wilson)表示：“最终也许会是，通胀压力会减少对汇率进一步波动的不安。”