中国动用加息重武器 China rolls out inflation big guns

At last, China has moved beyond the pea-shooters. Three increases to banks’ reserve requirement ratios since the beginning of the year had little obvious effect on prices; the inflation rate in August was 3.5 per cent, the fastest pace in 22 months. Bigger guns have now been deployed. For the first time since December 2007, the People’s Bank has increased the benchmark one-year deposit and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.5 and 5.56 per cent respectively.

中国终于抛弃了射豆枪。自今年年初以来银行存款准备金率(RRR)的三次上调，几乎未对价格产生明显影响；8月份通胀率已达到3.5%，是22个月来的最快增长速度。如今，当局已动用了重型武器。自2007年12月以来，中国央行首次将一年期存贷款基准利率上调0.25个百分点，分别至2.5%与5.56%。

Not before time. Banks have been lending more than expected; September’s Rmb596bn in new loans was ahead of consensus forecasts of Rmb500bn. The lending has helped push up asset prices, particularly property; the nationwide index is 9.1 per cent rate higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, higher deposit rates may make savers less willing to rely on instant-access deposits, from which the funds often go into more speculative investments. These deposits grew by 39 per cent between January 2009 and September this year, almost double the growth rate of more sober time deposits.

中国央行早该这么做了。各大银行的贷款一直超出预期；9月份5960亿元人民币的新增贷款，超过了普遍预期的5000亿元人民币。如此巨额的放贷，帮助推高了资产价格，尤其是房地产；全国房地产价格指数较一年前上涨了9.1%。此外，提高存款利率，可以降低储户依赖活期存款的意愿，此类存款的资金常常流向更具投机性的投资。2009年1月至今年9月，这类存款增长了39%，几乎是定期存款增长速度的两倍。

Another way to fight inflation is through currency appreciation, but, as Royal Bank of Scotland notes, the People’s Bank typically avoids tightening through multiple policy instruments simultaneously. Most market participants, though, consider the appreciation so far, 2.6 per cent nominal against the dollar since the end of June, to be inadequate. The pace of strengthening implied by Hong Kong’s non-deliverable forward market is near a two-year high, while the offshore renminbi premium over the onshore market has never been wider. If the heavier armory implies that the exchange rate will be left alone for now, China may cool passions at home but inflame them overseas.

另一个对抗通胀的方法是货币升值，但正如苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)所指出的，中国央行一般会避免同时采用多个政策工具，来达到收紧的目的。尽管如此，大多数市场人士认为，人民币迄今为止的升值幅度——自6月末以来对美元名义汇率上升了2.6%——还不够。香港无本金交割远期(NDF)市场所显示的升值幅度已接近两年来的高点；而离岸人民币对在岸人民币的溢价已达到创纪录高点。如果上述重型武器意味着人民币汇率暂停上升，那中国或许会让国内“降温”，却会让国外的愤怒“升温”。