汇丰孙瑜：明年春节前不要入市 China: inflation trumps QE2, so take profits now

This isn’t the first time analysts have poured cold water on China’s recent hot streak. Last week, Vincent Chan and Peggy Chan at Credit Suisse predicted a 10-15 per cent decline on the Shanghai market. Now Steven Sun, head of China equity strategy at HSBC, is doing the same.
这并非分析师第一次向中国近期的火爆行情泼冷水。上周，瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的陈昌华(Vincent Chan)和Peggy Chan就曾预言，上海股市将下跌10%至15%。现在，汇丰(HSBC)中国股票策略主管孙瑜(Steven Sun)正在泼出又一盆冷水。
Rising food prices, he says, look troubling - and outweigh the bullish signals of the Fed’s coming flood of cash.Thursday’s inflation print - at 4.4 per cent - was the starting pistol on a massive wave of selling on the Shanghai market. Friday saw the index lose over 5 per cent. Today, it rose, but only by 0.97 per cent and it remains the region’s worst performing index this year, under-performing its fellow big laggard, the Nikkei 225.
他表示，不断上涨的粮食价格令人担忧，其影响力要大于美联储(Fed)将向市场大举注资这一看涨信号。中国上周四发布的通胀数据（同比涨幅达4.4%），打响了上海股市抛售浪潮的发令枪。上周五，上证综指下跌逾5%。尽管该指数本周一出现上涨，但涨幅只有0.97%。此外，上证综指仍是今年亚洲表现最差的股指，甚至不如同样大幅落后的日经225指数。
Sun says there is more to come, both in terms of inflation, and in selling of stocks.
孙瑜表示，无论是通胀还是股市抛售浪潮都远未结束。
'The majority of investors have switched to “risk-on” mode, exercised the “Bernanke Put” and enjoyed the QE2-driven market rally. But now it’s time for a reality check. We believe it is questionable whether QE2 can solve the chronic economic problems dogging the US. There’s no question, however, that it is fuelling inflation and asset bubbles in emerging markets.
“大多数投资者已转入‘追逐风险’模式，执行了‘伯南克看跌期权’(Bernanke Put)，享受到了二次定量宽松驱动的市场反弹。但现在是时候审视一下现实了。我们认为，二次定量宽松能否解决困扰美国多年的经济问题是存在疑问的。但不存在任何疑问的是，该政策正在加剧新兴市场的通胀和资产泡沫。”
The longer the Fed conducts quantitative easing, the higher the inflationary pressure in China and the more likely it is that Beijing’s policymakers may be forced to play catch-up.'
“美联储定量宽松政策实施得越久，中国面对的通胀压力就越大，中国的政策制定者就越有可能被迫进行补偿性加息。”
So what to do? Take profits, and leave the market alone until the Chinese New Year, says Sun. But is this true of all emerging markets?
那么，接下来该怎么办？孙瑜表示，应该获利回吐，明年春节前不要入市。但这一建议适用于所有新兴市场吗？