韓國的經濟-CommonWealth Magazine

韓國經濟：增長的速度加快
由經濟學人信息部
從經濟學
發布時間：2010年4月29日
韓國的經濟復甦加強了2010年第一季度，根據央行的事先估計。實質本地生產總值增長了1.8％，由上一季度和7.8％，由去年同期早。雖然出口前景正在改善隨著全球經濟的復甦，第一季度的表現是國內驅動。經濟學人信息部預計大致相同的模式，以恢復在2010年作為一個整體。
韓國恢復從全球經濟低迷的影響正日益鞏固。誠然，非常強勁的一年的按年經濟增長速度，在第四季度以來最快的2002年，是誤導。它是由低膨脹基地，與第一季度相比2009年，當經濟衰退是在全面展開，實質本地生產總值大幅收縮，特別是在去年的按年計算。私人消費，例如，增長 6.2％，比去年同期的2010年首3個月相比，收縮了4.4％，高於去年同期。同樣，固定投資總額增長 10.7％，而今年第一季度，有收縮 7.4％,1 - 3月季度的2009年。在輸出方面，製造業增長更是大跌了20％，而2010年首3個月後，承包了13.6％，而同期去年同期。
其他指標的改進，如工業生產和商品出口，這兩者都在快速成長的數個月後的痛苦和長期的大幅下降，在最嚴重的衰退，復甦提供更廣泛的確認。貨物出口，以美元計算，增加的速度超過 30％，去年同期為過去 4個月。工業生產增長近27％，比去年同期在2010年2月，後上升約 31％和35％的前兩個月。總之，無論經濟條件大棚產出的低迷而現正回雙快時間。
如果經濟，毫不奇怪，這樣做是遠遠優於這是一年前，它也加快的勢頭，在過去的四分之一。這是明顯的季度與上季度的增長數字，也包括在本地生產總值的預先估計，韓國銀行（韓國銀行，中央銀行）發表於 4月27日。較上季經濟成長率可能會有波動，但最新的數據仍然令人鼓舞同時採取其他指標的改善。私人消費增長加快至0.6％，季季（從 0.4％，而2009年第四季度）;韓國銀行解釋，這是消費者自己的消費上正在大打“半持久”的貨物。政府消費增長 5.7％，龐大的福利開支較高，扭轉了急劇下滑，上一季度。固定資本投資放緩，但仍張貼增長 0.9％。
其中最顯著特徵的最新數據是作出重大貢獻的庫存整體 GDP的增長。韓國企業開始削減庫存，第四季度到2008年，在預期的更加疲軟的國內和外部需求。庫存仍在下降，但他們現在下降的速度比以前慢。因此，他們已經作出了積極貢獻標題 GDP增長。
對外貿易方面還提出鼓勵在第一季度完成。貨物出口及服務增長 2.5％，季季，超過 1％，扭轉了上一季度收縮。貨物出口增長更為迅速，擴大了3.4％。據韓國銀行的回升主要是結果的出貨量強勁增長的汽車，半導體和LCD平板顯示器，一解釋證實了很好的近期財報的公司如三星電子，LG顯示，海力士半導體和現代汽車。
然而，出口增長更是相形見絀，進口快速增長，第一季度完成。在國家，會計基礎，商品和服務進口上升4.4％，部分反映國內需求的改善，但也可能強調出口商需要更多的零部件和原材料。因此，淨貿易作出了貢獻，對 GDP增長負在第一季度完成。
展望
我們認為，經濟增長在2010年作為一個整體將遵循類似的模式大致在第一季度完成。整體國內生產總值將增加5％的實質，2010年急劇上升的2009年增加0.2％（這本身現在看起來像一個非常積極的結果相比，在輸出大收縮在許多經濟體的最後一年）。
庫存重建將是迄今為止最大的因素在今年的GDP增長，貢獻 3.4個百分點，總的增長。庫存調整是普遍的週期性和短暫的。然而，事實上，庫存，雖然已經提高增長的絕對數量仍然承包表明stockbuilding週期還沒有打開。存貨增加可能會隨著企業開始提高產量和進口更多的原材料或半製成品符合改善貿易條件。這表明，stockbuilding將繼續增加整體國內生產總值增長率至少一對夫婦的宿舍了。
這也是一個主要原因，儘管外部需求回升，我們預期淨出口對 GDP增長減去今年。我們認為，出口的貨物和服務將增加7.2％，今年的實質（收縮 0.8％後，2009年）。然而，我們的預測是對進口貨物和服務增加了12.6％，而外部的平衡，因此減去 1.5個百分點的增長。
圖片將在2011年的變化，屆時庫存週期可能已經走完了其歷程和淨出口將作出積極的貢獻增長。在這種情況下，主要風險之一，對韓國經濟復甦是在國外需求也將隨之刺激政策的影響主要出口市場消失。減輕這種風險是由中國的事實，這是蓬勃發展，是目前全國最大的出口市場，約佔四分之一的所有貨物。不過，儘管中國經濟增長在明年將保持強勁，這將大幅放緩至約 8％相比，幾乎 10％，我們現在預測 2010年。在其他地區，前景在韓國的其他主要出口市場尤其是美國和日本仍然不明朗得多，尤其是因為政策的刺激作用減弱可能在這兩個國家，導致在2011年增長放緩。韓國目前正活躍，但挑戰還在後面。

South Korea economy: Growth picks up
By THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
From The Economist
Published: April 29, 2010
South Korea's economic recovery strengthened in the first quarter of 2010, according to the central bank's advance estimate. Real GDP grew by 1.8% from the previous quarter, and by 7.8% from the same period a year earlier. Although export prospects are improving as the global economy revives, the first-quarter performance was domestically driven. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a broadly similar pattern to the recovery in 2010 as a whole.
South Korea's recovery from the effects of the global downturn is looking increasingly entrenched. Admittedly, the very strong year-on-year rate of economic growth—the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2002—is misleading. It is inflated by a low base of comparison with the first quarter of 2009, when the economic downturn was in full swing and real GDP contracted particularly sharply in year-on-year terms. Private consumption, for example, grew 6.2% year on year in the first three months of 2010, compared with a 4.4% contraction in the year-earlier period. Similarly, gross fixed investment grew 10.7% in the first quarter of this year, having contracted by 7.4% in the January-March quarter of 2009. On the output side, manufacturing grew by a whopping 20% in the first three months of 2010, having contracted by 13.6% in the same period a year earlier.
Improvements in other indicators such as industrial production and merchandise exports—both of which have been growing rapidly for several months after suffering sharp and prolonged falls during the worst of the downturn—provide broader confirmation of recovery. Exports of goods, measured in US dollars, have increased at rates of over 30% year on year for the past four months. Industrial production grew almost 27% year on year in February 2010, after rises of around 31% and 35% in the two previous months. In short, whatever the economy shed in terms of output during the downturn it is now making back in double-quick time.
If the economy, unsurprisingly, is doing much better than it was a year ago, it has also picked up momentum in the past quarter. This is apparent from quarter-on-quarter growth numbers, also included in the advance GDP estimate that the Bank of Korea (BOK, the central bank) released on April 27th. Quarter-on-quarter growth rates can be volatile, but the latest data are nonetheless encouraging when taken alongside improvements in other indicators. Private consumption growth accelerated to 0.6% quarter on quarter (from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009); the BOK attributes this to consumers upping their spending on "semi-durable" goods. Government consumption grew by a massive 5.7% on higher welfare spending, reversing a steep decline in the previous quarter. Gross fixed capital investment slowed, but still posted growth of 0.9%.
One of the most notable features of the latest data is the substantial contribution of inventories to overall GDP growth. South Korean businesses began to cut their stocks in the fourth quarter of 2008, in anticipation of much weaker domestic and external demand. Inventories are still falling, but they are now declining at a slower rate than before. As a result, they are already making a positive contribution to headline GDP growth.
The external sector also offered encouragement in the first quarter. Exports of goods and services grew by 2.5% quarter on quarter, more than reversing a 1% contraction in the previous quarter. Exports of goods increased even more rapidly, expanding by 3.4%. According to the BOK, the upturn was mainly the result of stronger shipments of cars, semiconductors and LCD flat-panel screens, an interpretation corroborated by the very good recent earnings results for companies such as Samsung Electronics, LG Display, Hynix Semiconductor and Hyundai Motor.
However, growth in exports was eclipsed by even more rapid growth in imports in the first quarter. On a national-accounts basis, imports of goods and services rose by 4.4%, partly reflecting the improvement in domestic demand but also probably underlining exporters' needs for more components and raw materials. As a result, net trade made a negative contribution to GDP growth in the first quarter.
Outlook
We think economic growth in 2010 as a whole will follow a broadly similar pattern to that in the first quarter. Overall GDP will increase by 5% in real terms in 2010, sharply up on the 0.2% increase in 2009 (which itself now looks like a very positive result compared with the big contractions in output in many economies last year).
Inventory rebuilding will be by far the biggest factor in this year's GDP expansion, contributing 3.4 percentage points of total growth. Inventory adjustments are generally cyclical and short-lived. However, the fact that inventories—though already boosting growth—are still contracting in absolute terms suggests that the stockbuilding cycle has not yet turned. Inventories are likely to start increasing as businesses ramp up production and import more raw materials or semi-finished goods in line with improving trading conditions. This suggests that stockbuilding will continue to add to overall GDP growth for at least a couple of quarters more.
It is also a major reason why, despite the upturn in external demand, we expect net exports to subtract from GDP growth this year. We think exports of goods and services will increase by 7.2% in real terms this year (after a 0.8% contraction in 2009). However, our forecast is for imports of goods and services to increase by 12.6%, and for the external balance to therefore subtract 1.5 percentage points from growth.
The picture will change in 2011, by which time the inventory cycle is likely to have run its course and net exports will be making a positive contribution to growth. In this context, one of the key risks for South Korea is that the recovery in foreign demand will falter as the effects of policy stimulus in major export markets fade. This risk is mitigated by the fact that China, which is booming, is by far the country's largest export market, accounting for around a quarter of all shipments. Still, while growth in China will remain strong next year, it will slow sharply to about 8% compared with the almost 10% that we are now forecasting for 2010. Elsewhere, prospects in South Korea's other key export markets—most notably the US and Japan—remain far more uncertain, particularly as the effects of policy stimulus are likely to wear off in both countries, leading to a slowdown in growth in 2011. South Korea is looking buoyant right now, but challenges lie ahead.