《财富》评论：盛大新游戏——陈天桥欲打造中国迪斯尼

《财富》评论：盛大新游戏——陈天桥欲打造中国迪斯尼  2005.10.11  来自：CSDN  刘韧    朋友们认为陈天桥疯了，因为在中国，一旦推出新的视频游戏，各式各样的盗版马上就会充斥着大街小巷，通过游戏来盈利的可能性微乎其微。
翻译至《财富》杂志10月7日评论文章
作者：STEPHAN FARIS
四年前，中国互联网泡沫破裂，盛大从中华网融资的300万美元已经所剩无几，陈天桥将手中仅有的30万美金拿下了韩国游戏《传奇》的代理权。
朋友们认为陈天桥疯了，因为在中国，一旦推出新的视频游戏，各式各样的盗版马上就会充斥着大街小巷，通过游戏来盈利的可能性微乎其微。然而从复旦大学经济系毕业的陈天桥却采用了一种简单而又极其巧妙的收费方式：用户将免费获得游戏软件，但是需要购买在盛大服务器上玩游戏的时间，他们每小时只需花费3美分，就可以在互联网上与其他人进行竞技和交流。
“盛大解决了盗版问题，”技术行业咨询公司BDA China的主席兼董事总经理邓肯?克拉克表示，“在中国，人们是不会买精装的正版产品的。”
陈天桥的赌博成功了：盛大在两个月内开始创收；2004年，盛大在美国纳斯达克上市，目前市值已达19亿美元，成为中国最大互联网企业之一；盛大运营的《传奇》等角色扮演类网络游戏向人们提供了一种不同于乏味的电视电影节目的全新娱乐方式，游戏用户爆炸性增长，最高同时在线人数目前已达250万；盛大收入平均每年翻一倍；今年第二季度，盛大实现收入6520万美元，比去年同期增长88%，净利润达到2690万美元，比去年同期增长58%；而盛大的股价则比首次公开发行价格上涨了近两倍。
现在，陈天桥又在进行另一场豪赌。尽管分析家们预计网络游戏市场将在接下来的5年内以每年35%的速度递增，盛大却积极地在其他互动娱乐领域寻求突破。对于一家平均每年利润增长近一倍的企业来说，35%的增幅是远远不够的。陈天桥认为：“如果盛大要保持快速增长，我们必须扩张，必须拓展用户群。”
在过去一年里，盛大动用从股票市场上募集的1.5亿美元资金，以及通过发行可转换债券获得的2.75亿美元资金进行了一系列收购，其中包括一些非网游公司。在并购了手机游戏开发商数位红和文学网站起点中文网之后，盛大又令人惊叹地拆资2.3亿美元收购了中国最大门户网站新浪网19.5%的股权，这也是迄今为止中国出现的最接近恶意收购的商业事件。随后，盛大和中国最大的收缩引擎百度建立了战略合作伙伴关系，接着又与环球音乐结成联盟，提供音乐下载服务。
而在主营业务网络游戏方面，盛大也在积极扩展。盛大推出了一系列休闲游戏，这些游戏往往与《超级玛利》风格类似，但同时参与者可以达到成百上千。休闲游戏本身是免费的，但是玩家们需要付费购买游戏中人物的衣服、帽子等道具，也可以重新设置背景。正如盛大投资者关系副总监梁晓东所说，“这就像是在商店购物，每个人都希望与众不同。”
但是，陈天桥最大的赌注还要数将互联网和中国3.7亿电视机结合的盛大“盒子”了。陈天桥认为，宽带和电视的结合可以使盛大接触到那些不经常去网吧或使用个人电脑的用户。盛大“盒子”在今年7月份亮相，它提供宽带和有线电视两个接口，并承诺将互联网（包括盛大产品）直接送入家庭。
另一方面，盛大还在拓展角色扮演类网络游戏业务。盛大目前共运营六款大型角色扮演类游戏，其中有四款是自主研发；公司还计划推出一款卡通风格的魔幻类游戏和一款3D角色扮演游戏，以此和对手九城代理的《魔兽世界》一较高下。另一方面，大型角色扮演网络游戏收入占盛大总收入的比例已经降至三分之二，而管理层希望这一比例还能继续降低。盛大首席财务官李曙君表示，“整个网络游戏行业的增长速度要高于角色扮演类游戏的增长。”
在远离市区的上海浦东，竖立着一栋四层楼高的办公楼，这里是盛大总部所在，也是中国游戏产业革命的震中。在一楼接待大厅的一座鱼缸上方，一台纯屏显示器正在播放《梦幻国度》的宣传片（这是一款针对女性玩家设计的卡通风格的角色扮演游戏）。大部分的来访者都会通过右侧的走道进入客服中心，在那里工作人员将帮助用户处理密码丢失和虚拟道具被盗等问题。由于盛大要求丢失密码的用户亲自携带ID报失，一些用户甚至不远千里来到这里。“如果你被朋友骗了，我可以帮你解决问题，”24岁的客服员工李丽（音译）说道。
在另一侧，300名电话操作员正每天24小时轮流接听用户来电。在陈天桥看来，他们是整个行业的见证人，“网络游戏不是一个产品，而是一项服务，因此盛大在创收的第一个月就建立了电话服务中心。”而在另一个房间里，一些技术人员正在监测盛大游戏的用户数量（盛大在全国拥有一万四千台服务器，可以同时容纳590万用户）。盛大投资者关系总监周东蕾表示：“很多人都以为在游戏行业里，谁的产品最好，谁就会取胜。而事实是，谁拥有最稳定的平台，谁才会成为赢家。”正如陈天桥所言：“你的房子首先要足够坚固，然后才可以装修。”
盛大共拥有2000名员工（平均年龄25岁），其中绝大部分人员都从事游戏开发，他们知晓同邻人在游戏方面的爱好。在一间间紧密相连的办公隔间里，设计人员正在勾画怪兽、描绘地图、设计道具、撰写新情节、测试同事们的工作成果……为了加快动画制作速度，盛大还新购入了一套动作捕捉系统，从简单的招手动作到较难的飞毛腿招式，都可以通过录入演员、舞蹈家和武术人员的表演来移植到游戏人物中。23岁的动作捕捉工程师蔡颖还介绍，“我们甚至可以捕捉人物表情，演员们可以做出饥饿或高兴的样子。”
……
正如网络游戏中的人物一样，陈天桥希望遥遥领先于其他竞争者，成为行业的王者，因此“盒子”对盛大的未来而言将尤为重要。目前陈天桥已经同48家内容提供商结成联盟，通过提供丰富多彩的娱乐产品吸引不同年龄层次的用户。陈天桥描绘了这样一幅场景：青少年玩魔幻类游戏；家长和孩子一起玩教育类游戏；老人们玩期牌和麻将；而全家人在电视机前唱卡拉OK。“也许在内容方面你不能解决盗版问题，但是你可以通过控制渠道来收费。”
陈天桥喜欢迎难而上。“如果在接下来的五年中，盛大的利润每年都能翻一翻，它市值就同迪斯尼一样了”——陈天桥说道，语气中不带丝毫玩笑的成分——“我们现在（市值）将近20亿美元，而迪斯尼大约是400亿至500亿美元，如果我们翻五翻……”他的声音渐渐减弱，“这不是一个目标，而是一个梦想，我的梦想。”
Features/Power Plays/Shanda‘s New Game
SHANDA‘S GOT A NEW GAME Chen Tianqiao is betting he can turn China‘s hottest online-gaming company into the next Disney.
STEPHAN FARIS
2,653 words
17 October 2005
Fortune Asian Edition
96
English
Copyright (c) 2005 Bell &Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. 　　? 　　It was the first crime of its kind in China: Last year a 40-year- old man used a real knife to stab to death a younger man who had borrowed his virtual sword from an online videogame and sold it for $870. There are no laws in China protecting virtual property, so Qiu Chengwei, the man whose sword had been stolen, got no help from the police. 　　? 　　Instead he tracked Zhu Caoyuan to his one-room apartment in Shanghai and, in the presence of Zhu‘s girlfriend, plunged a knife into his heart. 　　? 　　The crime earned Qiu a death sentence. It also sent shivers through China‘s fast-growing and increasingly controversial gaming industry, which has been accused of causing obsessive and sometimes violent behavior. Nowhere has that backlash against videogames been more keenly watched than at the Shanghai headquarters of Shanda Interactive Entertainment, China‘s biggest gaming company. Shanda specializes in online role-playing games that draw thousands of players together in their virtual worlds. Although it doesn‘t operate the game that Qiu and Zhu were playing--Legend of Mir III-- it does operate the even more popular version, Legend of Mir II, featuring Asian warriors. And for Chen Tianqiao, Shanda‘s founder and CEO, the backlash is one more reason that he‘s racing to transform his successful videogame company into a more broadly based entertainment conglomerate--one he hopes will become China‘s Disney. 　　? 　　This isn‘t the first time Chen, a quiet, unassuming 32-year-old, has made a counterintuitive bet. Four years ago, with the dot-com bubble bursting and the $3 million in venture capital he had raised for an online cartoon website running out, Chen forked over his last $300,000 to a South Korean company for the Chinese rights to Legend of Mir II. His friends thought he was crazy. No sooner had other companies launched videogames in China than pirated copies flooded the streets. But Chen, who graduated in economics from Shanghai‘s Fudan University, had a deceptively simple yet ingenious plan: He would give the software away free and get players to buy time on the company‘s servers. For as little as 3 cents an hour, they could interact and compete. "They cracked the piracy problem," says Duncan Clark, chairman and co-managing director of BDA China, a Beijing technology-consulting firm. "In China, shrink-wrapped products don‘t sell." 　　? 　　Chen‘s gamble paid off: Within two months the company was profitable. Last year it went public, and it now has one of the largest market capitalizations ($1.9 billion) of any Internet company in China. Online role-playing games, like Legend of Mir II and others the company has developed on its own, offered China‘s young people an escape from the barren entertainment landscape of state-run television and poor-quality knockoffs of Western movies. For many it was an escape from reality itself. Teenage boys and young men streamed into Internet cafes to log on to Shanda‘s games and assume the identities of warriors, monks, and magicians in order to kill monsters and each other. Online gaming became a national obsession, with as many as 2.5 million players logging on to Shanda‘s games at once. Revenues doubled every year, on average, reaching $65.2 million in the second quarter of 2005, up 88% from the previous year. Net income grew too, jumping 58%, to $26.9 million, in the same period. And the stock--listed on Nasdaq--has nearly tripled since its IPO. 　　? 　　Now Chen is betting against conventional wisdom once again. Although industry analysts expect China‘s online gaming industry will continue to expand by 35% a year for the next five years, Shanda is looking to diversify into other forms of interactive online entertainment. For a company used to doubling in size every year, 35% growth isn‘t good enough. "If we want to keep Shanda growing very quickly," Chen says, "we have to expand, to broaden our demographics." 　　? 　　Over the past year, Shanda has taken the $150 million it raised in its public offering and another $275 million from the sale of convertible bonds and bought several companies, many beyond the realm of online gaming. After buying Digital-Red, a provider of games for cellphones, and Qidian, a literature website, Chen made waves by spending $230 million to acquire 19.5% of Sina.com, China‘s premier Internet portal and news site. It was the closest thing the country has seen to a hostile takeover. Shanda has also teamed up with Baidu, one of China‘s top search engines, and it is partnering with Universal Music to offer digital downloads. 　　? 　　The company has been expanding its reach in the gaming world too, with a move into so-called casual games--online arcade offerings, often in the style of Super Mario Bros. but with hundreds playing at once. The games are free, but users pay for upgrades to provide their characters with clothing or hats, say, or to change the background. "It‘s just like you‘d buy something at the shopping mall," says Frank Liang, Shanda‘s associate director of investor relations. "Everyone wants to look different from the others." 　　? 　　But Chen‘s biggest bet is on a new set-top box designed to bring the Internet to the country‘s 370 million televisions. To Chen, a marriage of broadband with television could bring Shanda to those who might not frequent a cybercafe or use a home computer. Unveiled in July, the box features a jack for ADSL, a cable for television, and the tantalizing promise of piping the Internet--and Shanda products--directly into the living room. 　　? 　　Shanda is still trying to grow its online role-playing games. It currently offers six titles, including four developed in-house, and it‘s planning a fantasy cartoon game and a new 3-D role-playing game that would compete with World of Warcraft, operated by rival The9. But role-playing games now account for only two-thirds of Shanda‘s revenue, and the company‘s managers expect that figure to keep dropping. "The natural growth of the gaming industry is higher than that for just role-playing games," says Li Shujun, Shanda‘s chief financial officer. 　　? 　　The epicenter of China‘s gaming revolution is a four-story office park in the distant reaches of Shanghai‘s Pudong district. In the reception area, above an aquarium, a flat-screen TV loops a trailer for Magical Land, a cartoon-style online role-playing game targeting young girls. Most visitors head through a side entrance to Shanda‘s customer-service center, where clerks behind glass handle cases of lost passwords and theft of virtual equipment by hackers. Some customers have traveled more than 800 miles. (The company requires people who forget their password to show up in person with ID.) "If you were cheated by your friend, I can‘t solve that problem for you," says Li Li, a 24-year-old clerk. 　　? 　　In another wing sit 300 telephone operators, who field questions from callers 24 hours a day. They are testimony to Chen‘s view of the industry. "Online gaming is not a product, it‘s a service," says Chen. "The first month we got profitable, we invested in the call center." In another room, technicians monitor real-time digital graphs that track how many users are logged on to Shanda‘s games. (The company has a network of 14,000 servers that can accommodate as many as 5.9 million users.) "A lot of people think of games as whoever has the hottest product will be the winner," says Zhou Donglei, head of investor relations. "But it‘s really not. It‘s who has the most stable platform." Or as Chen puts it, "If you want to live in a house, first it should be strong enough. Then we can add the decorations." 　　? 　　Most of Shanda‘s headquarters is devoted to game development. The company employs 2,000 workers (average age 25), who are expected to know what their game-playing peers want. In cubicle after cubicle, designers draw new monsters, map new lands, dream up new gear, mastermind challenges for the players, and test their co-workers‘ products. The company has recently invested in motion-capture equipment to speed animation, and it has brought in actors, professional dancers, and martial artists to lend their moves to the characters. The motions range from a simple wave of the hand to flying kung fu kicks. "We even have expressions," says Cai Ying, a 23-year-old motion-capture engineer. "The actor does some motion showing that he‘s hungry or happy." 　　? 　　Shanda employees sometimes enter their own online worlds. On a recent summer day, Hu Zhenkai, 24, was leading several dozen online Legend of Mir II players into a virtual cave. Logged on as a game master, a special character that can‘t be harmed, he waited in a clearing near some trees. An armored knight with white, feathery wings arrived and slashed at him with a sword (a standard greeting). Other characters appeared, one followed by a pig, another escorted by a skeletal henchman. Hu led them through twisting corridors, around gray stalagmites, and past the corpses of bat-winged beasts. Every so often a blue bolt would blast him: a new arrival, saying hello. When the last beast, a giant dragon, succumbed to the barrage, the players were rewarded with snowmen that exploded into piles of gold. 　　? 　　The very features of the games that pull players in--their violence, their ability to shunt the real world aside--make them unpopular with parents and the government. The local press delights in linking videogames with obsessive or violent acts. A 13-year-old boy jumps from a 24th floor with his arms stretched forward in a flying posture, leaving a note that says he is joining three virtual friends. Another teenager, accustomed to dodging bullets in a popular videogame, can walk only in zigzags. A man protests a game by setting himself on fire. 　　? 　　Each report turns up the heat. "The values and rules in these online games are completely different from real, physical society," says Shang Jiangang, a lawyer with the Shanghai Industry Association of Online Professionals, a group of gaming companies tasked by Shanghai‘s municipal government with considering industry regulations. It wouldn‘t be the first time the government intervened to protect the young. When PlayStation arcades elicited similar complaints in the 1990s, officials forced them to close. Last year many telecom companies took a hit after a crackdown on short- messaging systems cut off an important revenue stream. After a fire in an Internet cafe killed 25 people in 2002, the government began restricting their use. Players must prove they are older than 18, and the cafes, where nearly half the online gamers play, must close at midnight. Universities have blocked access to game servers, and schools have banned cafes in their neighborhoods. The obsessive nature of online role-playing games--their "stickiness," in Shanda‘s parlance--helped build the industry. Now that stickiness threatens to undermine it. 　　? 　　So far the government‘s focus has been on limiting playing time, mainly by introducing the concept of fatigue--points earned by players are automatically cut after the first few hours of play. In August it issued regulations requiring that players have their online characters‘ powers reduced after three hours of play and severely restricted after five hours. Seven of China‘s largest gaming companies, including Shanda, pledged to implement the system. Other proposals include speeding up character advancement, banning those under 18 from playing games that involve killing other players, restricting the trade in virtual weapons, and introducing a rating system much like the one for movies in the U.S. Though Shanda seems to be currying favor with the regulators--in September it announced it would team up with the government to develop patriotic games featuring party-approved historical characters--the restrictions could squeeze gaming revenues. Against this backdrop, Shanda‘s diversification gambit begins to look less like a gamble. 　　? 　　When Chen moved into online role-playing games, he had the China market to himself, and for four years his games were the most popular there. Now, for the first time, another game--Netease‘s Fantasy Westward Journey--holds the No. 1 spot. And World of Warcraft has become a runaway success since its launch in June. 　　? 　　Whether these rivals are luring customers from Shanda or expanding the market is a subject of debate, but they‘re one more reason that life in the gaming business is becoming a little more uncomfortable for Chen. James Rhee, who handles investor relations for The9, reckons there‘s room for several corporate players in a growing market. "New players are being drawn in who have never played in the past," he says. But Chen isn‘t so sanguine. "The competition to acquire the games is increasing," he says, "but the demographics are remaining fixed." 　　? 　　That‘s why the set-top box is so important to Shanda‘s future. Like a character in one of his games, Chen wants to stay ahead of hungry competitors nipping at his heels, perhaps even slay one or two of them. So he has lined up 48 content partners to offer a wide variety of entertainment products appealing to many segments of the population. Chen imagines teenagers playing fantasy games, parents playing educational games with their children, grandparents playing chess or mahjong online, and whole families singing karaoke in front of their TV sets. "Maybe you can‘t overcome the piracy problem on the content side," Chen says, "but you can control the channel side and charge for it." 　　? 　　Failure to get a return on its set-top-box investment could damage the company. "It‘s a high-stakes games," says Clark of BDA China. "The market is not mature yet." But Chen likes his odds. "If we can double in the next five years, every year, then maybe we can have the same valuation as Disney," he says, without a hint of humor in his voice, adding that he expects to push out to Asia and then the U.S. in the next few years. "Now we are at nearly $2 billion, and Disney is at about $40 billion to $50 billion. If we double five times ..." His voice trails off. "It‘s not a target," he says. "It‘s a dream. It‘s my dream." 　　? 　　Shanda cracked China‘s privacy problem: It gives away its software but charges gamers for playing time.The obsessive nature of online role-playing games helped build the industry. Now it threatens to undermine it. 　　? 　　See also introduction on page 41 of same issue. 　　? 　　PHOTO: PHOTOGRAPHS BY FRITZ HOFFMANN--DOCUMENTCHINA SWASHBUCKLING Shanda uses actors to simulate action for its role-playing games. THREE PHOTOS: PHOTOGRAPHS BY FRITZ HOFFMANN--DOCUMENTCHINA MONSTERS AND MAGICIANS Shanda has invested in motion-capture equipment (left) that helps designers to accurately portray characters‘ expressions and actions. Above: Scenes from Mir II. PHOTO: PHOTOGRAPHS BY FRITZ HOFFMANN--DOCUMENTCHINA EYEING DISNEY Chen, Shanda‘s CEO, is diversifying into other forms of entertainment. PHOTO: PHOTOGRAPHS BY FRITZ HOFFMANN--DOCUMENTCHINA RED ALERT More than half of China‘s game players use Internet cafes to enter their virtual worlds, but authorities are restricting access. PHOTO: PHOTOGRAPHS BY FRITZ HOFFMANN--DOCUMENTCHINA CAN I HELP YOU? Customer-service clerks restore lost passwords for players who must show ID. CHART: FORTUNE CHART / SOURCES: IDC; GOLDMAN SACHS TURBOCHARGED -Online gaming has exploded in China, and so have Shanda‘s revenues. -Millions of dollars -Est. &Proj. Total China online gaming market Shanda‘s revenues