谢国忠：熊市的扭曲 Bear wrestling

谢国忠：熊市的扭曲  Bear wrestling

阅读(7280) 评论(24) 发表时间：2009年04月02日 02:27

本文地址：http://qzone.qq.com/blog/622006065-1238612873

熊市的扭曲 / 謝國忠谢国忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/

I wrote the following article the morning of last Friday, thought I would spot another market top. Well, during the days for the article to come thru the Paper, the rally already fell apart. The point is that a structural bear market will bring down smarter and smarter investors. It is difficult for smart people to remain idle for long. At some point they talk them into action, which produces bear rallies. I am afraid that it may bring down Warren Buffett before it's all over. Best wishes. Andy

Bear wrestling

The world's economies and markets could remain depressed for years, and hopes for a recovery rest with Beijing

Andy Xie      Updated on Mar 31, 2009   

Stock markets have stormed back in the past month, up 20 to 30 per cent across the board. Businessmen who have been reporting plummeting earnings are beaming with confidence about the future - that is, you should give them more money. Well, hold on to your cash; this is just a dead-cat bounce. The world is in a protracted bear market that will last at least throughout 2010 - and, with policymakers focused on stimulus rather than reform, it could last considerably longer. So don't join the chase. If you do, kiss your money goodbye first.

Cash is still king. There will be a time when the central banks' money-printing will make cash unsafe. Then, you'll want to swap cash into assets like oil and gold. But, before inflation rears its ugly head, cash is still safe. The time for switching will probably be in the first half of 2010.

Plummeting stock, property and commodity markets have cleaned out many wealthy people. But, the smarter ones escaped early and are cash rich now. After hibernating for months, they are itching for action. Unfortunately, the itchier ones will probably part with their cash for good, too. There will be many bear-market bounces over the next two years. They will swallow those who escaped the bear's clutches before. Stock markets are cash grinders now.

Most investors fondly remember stock markets as wealth fountains, in which buying opportunities always followed major declines. But such memories are opium that lure the unwary into traps. The past three decades have been the exception, not the norm, in stock market investing. Even Warren Buffett got lucky. The last bear market in the US lasted for more than a decade. Japan's market is lower today than it was a quarter of a century ago. South Korea's is lower than it was two decades ago. If you believe stock markets make money in the long run, you need to live for a really long time. America and Europe have entered the sort of structural bear market that gripped Japan and South Korea two decades ago, for two reasons. First, the need to reverse the past borrowing binge will keep economic growth weak, so the pie won't expand significantly in the future. Second, there are more pressing needs, for example, coping with an ageing society. When a society abandons economic growth, is there any reason for favouring profit?

America's bank bailout plan was the catalyst for the current bounce. It wasn't significantly different from former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan. The market's response was different because it had been in fear mode for so long that it was ready to interpret such action positively. But, the problem with stripping toxic assets from failing banks is their prices. The current market prices are too low for the banks to survive. The plan tries to boost demand for toxic assets by offering buyers leverage of six times with government-guaranteed debt. As the debt cost for such a private borrower is probably eight percentage points higher than the government's, the subsidy for the equity tranche is nearly 50 percentage points. By priming the upside for private investors, the Treasury hopes that demand for toxic assets will increase sufficiently for their prices to rise enough for banks to survive the stripping.

This hope is probably in vain. In contrast to the stock market's reaction, the credit market has barely changed since the plan's announcement. The prices for toxic assets may need to more than double for the banks to survive. The odds of this happening are quite low. The chances are that the Treasury will come back to nationalisation again.

The Federal Reserve's plan to buy up to US$1.15 trillion of treasuries, credit card loans and mortgage-backed securities was another reason for the market's optimism. Its main aim was to keep mortgage interest low which would, in turn, stabilise the US housing market. But, printing money to keep interest rates low only works temporarily; it will eventually cause the US dollar to crash. Shouldn't investors demand higher interest rates for holding dollar papers? It is working in the short term, as investors focus on the impact of the Fed buying Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's paper, and ignore its impact on the dollar.

The US is essentially counting on the treasury bubble to keep its economy alive. Because China, Japan and Saudi Arabia are locked in, a depreciating asset could sell at a high price. Like IT, property and collateralised debt obligations before, this bubble will burst. I believe that US asset prices will finally bottom out when the treasury bubble bursts, possibly in 2010.

Experience from the past two decades has taught investors to rush in when a market seems to have hit the bottom, as a V-shaped recovery has always followed. But you will be making a big mistake if you think it will happen this time: there will be no V-shaped recovery; perhaps no recovery at all. Economies and markets may remain at the bottom for years. Possibly the only hope for the next bull market is for China to pick up where the US left off. It has the size and growth potential to lead globalisation. But it must change its export/investment-led model and undertake three reforms:

l Float the yuan, open the capital account and cut income tax to 25 per cent. These actions will attract the rich and talented from all over the world. Shanghai would surpass London and New York as a global financial centre. l Return the wealth to the people in the form of all government shares in state-owned enterprises. The initial impact would increase household consumption by 500 billion yuan (HK$568 billion). A good economy will tighten the labour market and push up wages, further boosting consumption.

l Designate 25 metropolises as mega cities, with 30 million people each. These cities should be allowed to issue bonds to finance their development, so they can keep property prices low, which would attract buyers. As migrant workers build the cities, the government should start a mortgage programme to allow them to buy the properties they build.

China has the potential to become a developed economy in two decades. There could be another bull market, but the catalyst will not be what Washington is doing. Watch Beijing, instead.

Andy Xie is an independent economist.

谢国忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/

空间的其他文章：

[媒体访谈]:谢国忠：熊市反弹是个杀人机器(2009年04月15日 18:56)

[财经专栏]:谢国忠：熊市反弹令人垂涎(2009年04月13日 14:33)

[言论]:谢国忠：对2010年的再思考(2009年04月13日 14:22)

[财经专栏]:谢国忠：熊市反弹后会跌得更狠(2009年04月13日 11:13)

[媒体访谈]:谢国忠：补贴投机(2009年04月10日 16:38)

[个人日记]:谢国忠：下一轮牛市在中国(2009年04月07日 07:21)

[媒体访谈]:谢国忠：政策悬空(2009年04月03日 17:38)

[言论]:谢国忠：美联储印钞的乐观反应(2009年04月01日 01:26)

[媒体访谈]:谢国忠：现在出现牛市概率为零 炒股亏钱活该(2009年03月31日 20:26)

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回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除1楼 支持你的人   评论时间：2009年4月2日 10时6分49秒

怎么不用中文呢？？？

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除2楼 总有好心情   评论时间：2009年4月2日 11时32分8秒

扭曲的熊市是牛市还是熊市

政府还真是有回天之力啊

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除3楼 や文┌轩や   评论时间：2009年4月2日 14时51分10秒

哎呀呀~~~~~到我空间看看

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除4楼 风萧萧兮   评论时间：2009年4月2日 21时15分28秒

确定美国和欧洲股市也会像泡沫经济后的日本一样长期处于调整，内部合理调整的中国还存在一次市场繁荣的机会，但现有的经济发展模式需要根本转变

需要对未来的变化有足够的警觉吧

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除5楼 Qzone用户   评论时间：2009年4月2日 23时43分58秒

你去死啦,中国人用英语。

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除6楼 法拉利2005   评论时间：2009年4月3日 8时48分28秒

不要在中国用英文.鄙视你.........................

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除7楼 鴻   评论时间：2009年4月3日 10时46分35秒

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除8楼 Qzone用户   评论时间：2009年4月3日 16时31分9秒

你太看不起老百姓了，你不会连自家文字都不会用了吧？!

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除9楼 光头师父   评论时间：2009年4月4日 23时34分29秒

怎么不用中文呢？？？

看不懂呀  谢先生    

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除10楼 rickyfung   评论时间：2009年4月5日 12时17分36秒

This is a very good article.I'm so agree with.I still hope the chinese government should appoint you as chief financial minster. you should led our country to a supper wealth and power.

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除11楼 怡莲   评论时间：2009年4月5日 12时23分58秒

巴菲特要死在风暴平息前？好，等着看

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除12楼 Qzone用户   评论时间：2009年4月5日 20时40分31秒

装神弄鬼的哦

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除13楼 文木白   评论时间：2009年4月5日 21时47分32秒

真因为没你那水平才想向你学,所以你就别用那英文了!

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除14楼 悟心人   评论时间：2009年4月6日 1时10分12秒

哥哥加油，为我们谢家再争口气。我也会跟着你的脚步漫步前进的，我以你为荣

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除15楼 悟心人   评论时间：2009年4月6日 1时19分5秒

不会英文很可惜

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除16楼 上帝的羔羊   评论时间：2009年4月7日 0时48分22秒

这不是给我看的！

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除17楼 海啸   评论时间：2009年4月7日 12时27分46秒

你不用英文也知道你人才，我不知道你不喜欢中文.中国人太穷没文化.

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本留言来自手机Qzone

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除18楼 1066151325   评论时间：2009年4月7日 17时8分17秒

文化水太少，不知道你说了些什么。可惜！也许你只是写给“精英”们的，我只…

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本留言来自手机Qzone

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除19楼 joan   评论时间：2009年4月7日 23时41分3秒

我想做为中国人还是用我们的语言会让更多人从你文字里了解信息

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本留言来自手机Qzone

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除20楼 热在北方   评论时间：2009年4月8日 4时14分57秒

好象中期最赚钱的机会己经过去了,现在己不便宜了.看不清别下手.炒股的关健是买入的时机.

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本留言来自手机Qzone

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除21楼 Qzone用户   评论时间：2009年4月8日 16时26分24秒

外国人写的当然用外文了！

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除22楼 Qzone用户   评论时间：2009年4月8日 16时26分57秒

这叫装逼~

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除23楼 我在你身边   评论时间：2009年4月9日 11时54分57秒

5.6楼骂谢博士用英文，人家用什么字写文章关你们什么事，看不懂就别看呗，谁又没请你来看。不要总去攻击别人。走出国门的人视野才会宽阔，不要做井底之蛙随便叫唤！

回复 | 引用 | 举报 | 删除24楼 麒麟   评论时间：2009年4月13日 23时52分21秒

引自： 我在你身边   于 2009年4月9日 11时54分57秒 发表的评论

引用内容：

5.6楼骂谢博士用英文，人家用什么字写文章关你们什么事，看不懂就别看呗，谁又没请你来看。不要总去攻击别人。走出国门的人视野才会宽阔，不要做井底之蛙随便叫唤！

你 是中国人的败类，你爸爸是英国早造