能源：能源的未来

[2008.06.21] 能源：能源的未来
[2008.06.21] 能源：能源的未来
归类于：社论 — 标签：能源 — Eco Team @ 10:06 pm
Energy
能源
The future of energy
能源的未来
Jun 19th 2008
From The Economist print edition
A fundamental change is coming sooner than you might think
巨变转瞬及至 速度超出想象

SINCE the industrial revolution 200 years ago, mankind has depended on fossil fuel. The notion that this might change is hard to contemplate. Greens may hector. 15:03 2008-6-24 may nag. The central heating’s thermostat may turn down a notch or two. A less thirsty car may sit in the drive. But actually stop using the stuff? Impossible to imagine: surely there isn’t a serious alternative?
从200年前的工业革命以来，人类就一直依赖化石燃料，几乎从未仔细想过过会有所改变。也许有环保人士危言耸听，也许有些良心不安。也许会把中央空调调低一两格，或者买辆低油耗车子。但不再用这些东西？很难想象：真的没有选择了吗？
Such a failure of imagination has been at the heart of the debate about climate change. The green message-use less energy-is not going to solve the problem unless economic growth stops at the same time. If it does not (and it won’t), any efficiency saving will soon be eaten up by higher consumption per head. Even the hair-shirt option, then, will bring only short-term relief. And when a dire prophecy from environmentalism’s jeremiad looks as if it is coming true, as the price of petroleum rises through the roof and the idea that oil might run out is no longer whispered in corners but openly discussed, there is a temptation to believe that the end of the world is, indeed, nigh.
眼下气候变化问题争得纷纷攘攘，根源就是安于现状，缺乏对未来的设想。”节约能源”-不错的环保口号，但无济于事。除非经济同时停止增长，否则就算用最苛刻的手法也只能暂时缓和，不管节约多少很快就被更高的人均消费所吞噬。哪怕像苦行僧一样生活，也是换汤不换药的做法。环保主义预计的暗淡前景似乎就会成为现实。油价飙升，储量告急，当这些不再是市井传言而成为公开议题时。人们有理由相信，世界末日，真的，不远了。
Not everyone, however, is so pessimistic. For, in the imaginations of a coterie of physicists, biologists and engineers, an alternative world is taking shape. As the special report in this issue describes, plans for the end of the fossil-fuel economy are now being laid and they do not involve much self-flagellation. Instead of bullying and scaring people, the prophets of energy technology are attempting to seduce them. They promise a world where, at one level, things will have changed beyond recognition, but at another will have stayed comfortably the same, and may even have got better.
但也不是每个人都如此悲观。在物理学家，生物学家和工程师的眼中，另一个世界正在成型。一篇关于此议题的特别报道提出，石化能源经济时代结束后的计划已经在制定中，而且没有多少痛苦的转型过程。提倡新能源的人士不会威逼吓唬，而是去诱惑人们，为他们勾画出一个超出想象却又同样舒适，甚至更加美好的世界。
This time it’s serious
这次来真的了
Alternative energy sounds like a cop-out. Windmills and solar cells hardly seem like ways of producing enough electricity to power a busy, self-interested world, as furnaces and steam-turbines now do. Battery-powered cars, meanwhile, are slightly comic: more like milk-floats than Maseratis. But the proponents of the new alternatives are serious. Though many are interested in environmental benefits, their main motive is money. They are investing their cash in ideas that they think will make them large amounts more. And for the alternatives to do that, they need to be both as cheap as (or cheaper than) and as easy to use as (or easier than) what they are replacing.
替代能源听起来像在逃避现实。风力和太阳能似乎都很难如现在的熔炉和蒸汽轮机那样给这个繁忙自私的世界提供足够的电力。电池驱动的汽车更加有点搞笑，就像送奶的马车，离名牌跑车还差的远。但新替代能源的支持者却非常认真对待。尽管他们中不少人看中其环保价值，但更多却是为了钱。因此不管是什么替代品，必须要便宜（至少不必现在高）又要容易使用（至少不比现在难）。
For oil replacements, cheap suddenly looks less of a problem. The biofuels or batteries that will power cars in the alternative future should beat petrol at today’s prices. Of course, today’s prices are not tomorrow’s. The price of oil may fall; but so will the price of biofuels, as innovation improves crops, manufacturing processes and fuels.
对于石油的替代品来说，价格突然不是什么问题了。未来使用生化燃料或者电池驱动汽车价格应当会比今天的石油更有竞争力。当然价格不是一成不变的。石油的价格或许会跌。但通过改进作物，生产流程和燃烧效率，生物燃料价格也会降低。
Electrical energy, meanwhile, will remain cheaper than petrol energy in almost any foreseeable future, and tomorrow’s electric cars will be as easy to fill with juice from a socket as today’s are with petrol from a pump. Unlike cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells, of the sort launched by Honda this week, battery cars do not need new pipes to deliver their energy. The existing grid, tweaked and smartened to make better use of its power stations, should be infrastructure enough. What matters is the nature of those power stations.
与此同时，在任何可预见的未来中，电力都比汽油便宜。未来的电力汽车插上插座就能充电，和现在用油泵加油一样。本田公司本周公布的新车型依然属于氢燃料电池驱动车，而电池汽车不需要新渠道输送能量。现有的电网调整优化后，能提高使用发电站输出电能的使用效率。这样基础设施就已足够用了，关键是用什么发电。
The price is right
价格合理
They, too, are more and more likely to be alternative. Wind power is taking on natural gas, which has risen in price in sympathy with oil. Wind is closing in on the price of coal, as well. Solar energy is a few years behind, but the most modern systems already promise wind-like prices. Indeed, both industries are so successful that manufacturers cannot keep up, and supply bottlenecks are forcing prices higher than they otherwise would be. It would help if coal-the cheapest fuel for making electricity-were taxed to pay for the climate-changing effects of the carbon dioxide produced when it burns, but even without such a tax, some ambitious entrepreneurs are already talking of alternatives that are cheaper than coal.
另外两种似乎会是更合适的替代品。风力已经赶上天然气，后者的价格随着石油水涨船高，而风力价格已经接近煤矿。同时太阳能也只落后几年。但大多数现代体系已经认可了风力这种程度的价格。事实上，两个行业都非常成功，供不应求。它们价格本不该如此，但受制于供应不足的瓶颈而被迫提高。煤作为最便宜的发电燃料，燃烧时产生的二氧化碳对气候有很大影响。如果对其收取特殊税将有助于替代能源的发展。然而就算不需支付这种税，一些雄心勃勃的企业就已开始讨论采用比煤更便宜的替代品了。
Older, more cynical hands may find this disturbingly familiar. The last time such alternatives were widely discussed was during the early 1970s. Then, too, a spike in the price of oil coincided with a fear that natural limits to supply were close. The newspapers were full of articles on solar power, fusion and converting the economy to run on fuel cells and hydrogen.
老愤青们也许会发现如今不安和历史惊人的相似。上一次替代能源引起广泛讨论是在上世纪70年代初。当时油价同样暴涨，同样引发了对自然资源很快枯竭的恐惧。报纸上全是探讨太阳能，核能和改变经济基础，以燃料电池和氢气作为主要能源的文章。
Of course, there was no geological shortage of oil, just a politically manipulated one. Nor is there a geological shortage this time round. But that does not matter, for there are two differences between then and now. The first is that this price rise is driven by demand. More energy is needed all round. That gives alternatives a real opening. The second is that 35 years have winnowed the technological wheat from the chaff. Few believe in fusion now, though uranium-powered fission reactors may be coming back into fashion. And, despite Honda’s launch, the idea of a hydrogen economy is also fading fast. Thirty-five years of improvements have, however, made wind, solar power and high-tech batteries attractive.
当然，石油储量本身并没有减少。一切都是政治操控的结果。别说石油不短缺，就算是的也无所谓，现在和以前完全不同。首先这次涨价是由于需求增加引起的。世界各地都需要更多能源，这给替代能源打开了大门。其次35年以来，各类技术已经去芜存菁。尽管铀核裂变能源或许会重新流行，但核能如今已引起了广泛的质疑。而氢气能源尽管这次本田推出了新车，依然免不了很快衰退。不管怎样，35年的进步让风力，太阳能核高科技电池成为热门。
As these alternatives start to roll out in earnest, their rise, optimists hope, will become inexorable. Economies of scale will develop and armies of engineers will tweak them to make them better and cheaper still. Some, indeed, think alternative energy will be the basis of a boom bigger than information technology.
这些替代性能源的运用开始有了实质性的进展。乐观的估计，他们的增长趋势不可阻挡。规模的扩大会产生额外的经济效应。大量工程师会不断调整使它们进一步做到质优价廉。一些人坚信替代能源对经济繁荣的促进将超过信息技术。
Whether that boom will happen quickly enough to stop the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reaching dangerous levels is moot. But without alternative energy sources such a rise is certain. The best thing that rich-world governments can do is to encourage the alternatives by taxing carbon (even knowing that places like China and India will not) and removing subsidies that favour fossil fuels. Competition should do the rest-for the fledgling firms of the alternative-energy industry are in competition with each other as much as they are with the incumbent fossil-fuel companies. Let a hundred flowers bloom. When they have, China, too, may find some it likes the look of. Therein lies the best hope for the energy business, and the planet.
光明何时到来？是否能赶在大气中聚集的二氧化碳达到危险程度之前？一切都是未知数。但如果没有替代能源，二氧化碳肯定会提高。最理想的就是富国政府能收取温室气体排放税（哪怕知道印度和中国肯定不会这样做）并取消对石化燃料的补助，以求能促进替代能源的发展。剩下的就由竞争决定。新兴的替代能源公司相互厮杀，当然还要对抗石化能源公司。百花齐放的能源市场或许会让富国当然还有中国发现自己钟爱的替代品。这样，能源市场还有我们生活的星球才有希望迎接一个光明的未来。