双语对照 - 工资提高，是否该离开中国了？

工资提高，是否该离开中国了？

The rising cost of manufacturing in China gives multinationals a rare chance to rethink global production plans, write Joe Manget and Pierre Mercier

中国制造业成本的增加给了跨国公司一个少有的机会来重新考虑其全球生产计划。

By Joe Manget and Pierre Mercier

作者 Joe Manget，Pierre Mercier

Rising wages—together with currency fluctuations and high fuel costs—are eating away the once-formidable "China price" advantage, prompting thousands of factory owners to flee the Pearl River Delta. Much has been written about the more than doubling of wages at the Shenzhen factory of Foxconn (2317:TT), the world's largest electronics contract manufacturer, which produces Apple (AAPL) iPhones and iPads and employs 920,000 people in China alone. "One can talk about a world pre- and post-Foxconn," says Victor Fung, chairman of Li & Fung (494:HK), the world's biggest sourcing company and a supplier of Wal-Mart (WMT). "Foxconn is as important as that."

工资提高 - 连同汇率波动和高油价 - 正在蚕食着一度令人敬畏的 “中国价格”优势，促使数千家厂主逃离珠江三角洲。关于富士康 (2317:TT)深圳工厂加薪幅度超过一半已经有过很多报道，这家世界最大的电子代工厂商，生产了苹果 (AAPL) iPhone 和 iPad，中国员工人数 92 万。世界最大的外包公司和沃尔玛(WMT)供应商，利丰集团 (494:HK)主席冯国经说，“我们可以把世界分为前富士康时代和后富士康时代。富士康确实非常重要。”

Foxconn's wage increases are only the most dramatic. Our analysis suggests that, since February, minimum wages have climbed more than 20 percent in 20 Chinese regions and up to 30 percent in some, including Sichuan. At a Guangdong Province factory supplying Honda (HMC), wages have risen an astonishing 47 percent. All this is bad news for companies operating in the world's manufacturing hub, and chief executives should assume that double-digit annual rises—if not on the scale witnessed this year—are here to stay.

富士康提高工资只是最具戏剧性的个案。我们的分析表明，从二月以来，中国国内 20 个地区的最低工资已经攀升了超过 20%，最多的甚至达到 30%，其中就包括四川省。本田 (HMC)在广东的一个供应商的工资增幅甚至达到了惊人的47%。这一切对于在世界制造中心开办的企业来说是坏消息，即便今年没有达到这一规模，企业主管们仍应该警惕这一现象的存在。

Looked at another way, however, wage inflation provides companies with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink radically the way they approach global production—and they should do so sooner rather than later.

不过从另一方面来说，工资上涨给企业提供了一个前所未有的机会来从根本上重新考虑他们的全球生产方式，这种事情宜早不宜迟。

Why the urgency? After all, wage hikes in China are nothing new. Since 1990 they have risen by an average of 13 percent a year in U.S. dollar terms and 19 percent annually in the past five years.

为什么这一问题是非常紧要的呢？毕竟加薪在中国不是什么新鲜事。以美元计算，从 1990 年开始，工资就以平均每年 13% 的幅度提高，而最近五年来甚至达到了 19%。

Outstripping Productivity Gains

极速的生产力提高

There are two big reasons the situation is different now. The first has to do with productivity. Over the past 20 years, productivity increases have broadly matched wage increases, negating their impact. The pay rises came from a very low base, so while average wages grew 19 percent a year from 2005 to 2010, this amounted to only $260 a month per employee, a sum that could be offset by more efficient production or switching to cheaper sources of parts and materials.

现如今形势的变化有两大主要原因。首先，这一变化与生产力有关。过去 20 年中，生产力的提高与工资涨幅基本一致，从而消除了后者所带来的冲击。工资的增长起于一个非常低的基点，因此从 2005 年到 2010 年尽管平均工资年增幅为 19%，而平均到每个员工头上，其月工资合计仅增长了 260 美元，这一数字可以通过更有效的生产或是转用更廉价的部件和材料来抵消。

If labor costs continue, however, to increase at 19 percent a year for another five years, monthly wages would grow $623 per month, according to BCG estimates. Such an increase would ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices for components, business services, cargo-handling, and office staff.

据波士顿咨询公司估计，人工成本如果继续增加的话，也就是说，在下一个五年内如果以年平均 19% 的速度增长，那么月薪的涨幅就可能达到每月 623 美元。这种涨幅会波及零部件、企业服务、货运及办公等领域，造成后者的价格提高。

The second reason relates to societal change. Until now, it has been easy to lure a seemingly unlimited number of young, low-wage workers to the richer coastal regions and house them cheaply in dormitories until they saved enough to return home to their families in the interior provinces. In the future, though, young workers will be harder to recruit. This is partly because there will be fewer of them: Largely because of the country's one-child policy, the number of Chinese aged 15 to 29 will start declining in 2011. Moreover, with living standards rising across China, fewer of today's rural youth will want to go to coastal regions to toil for 60 hours a week on an assembly line and live in a cramped dormitory.

其次，这一变化与社会转型有关。到目前为止，似乎数量不受限制的年轻低薪工人很容易被吸引到较富裕的沿海地区，在存够钱返回内陆省市之前，安置他们的住宿舍的支出也很少。但是，未来雇佣年轻工人将更为困难，部分原因是由于其人数量减少：这主要是因为该国的计划生育政策，中国 15 - 29 岁的人口数量从 2011 年将开始下降。此外，随着全国生活水平的提高，愿意去沿海地区，在生产线上一周苦干 60 小时，住狭窄宿舍的农村青年越来越少了。

Where Is Labor Cheaper?

什么地方的人力成本更便宜？

So what can CEOs do in this fast-changing environment? An instinctive reaction is to search for cheaper labor elsewhere. But this is short-sighted and would provide—at best—a short-term fix. Wages are rising everywhere in China, and while some companies have fled to neighboring countries, such as Vietnam, labor there isn't the bargain it appears.

那么首席执行官们该如何应对这种快速变化的环境呢？一种本能反应就是去其他地方寻找更便宜的人工。但这是目光短浅的做法，至多只能解燃眉之急。工资增长在中国是一个普遍现象，有些企业已经逃往邻国，如越南等，那里的人工成本似乎还很低廉。

Take one factory in Vietnam, where wages of 80¢ per hour are 31 percent lower than in China. On the face of it, this looks like a good deal—but factor in the differing productivity rates, and the Vietnamese factory's cost edge drops to 14 percent. Furthermore, it won't take long for young Vietnamese to demand the same treatment as their Chinese counterparts. New BCG research shows that the hopes and expectations of the new generation of youth are remarkably similar, whether in China, India, Indonesia, or Brazil.

拿越南的一家工厂来说，那里的时薪是 80 美分，比中国低 31%。乍看起来还不错，但考虑到二者在生产率上的不同，越南工厂的成本优势就下降到了 14%。此外，用不了多久越南的年轻工人也会像中国工人那样要求同样的待遇。波士顿咨询公司的一项新研究表明，无论在中国、印度、印度尼西亚还是巴西，新一代年轻人的希望和期望都极其相似。

Another option is to stay in China and try to squeeze out greater productivity gains. The country still has the industrial capacity, world-class infrastructure, skilled workforce, and managerial experience to remain competitive far into the future. We think there is still plenty of room to improve efficiency at Chinese plants with lean manufacturing methods, more automation, and closer collaboration with suppliers, although this will require companies to be creative, shrewd, and bold in their investment decisions.

还有一个选择就是留在中国，设法获取更大的生产收益。在未来很长一段时间里，这个国家仍然在工业生产能力、世界级的基础设施、熟练的劳动大军以及管理经验等方面具有竞争力。我们认为通过改进生产工艺、扩大自动化程度以及密切与供应商关系，中国工厂的生产率还有充分的提升空间，尽管这需要企业在投资决策方面更具创新、精明和大胆。

By staying in China, companies will also be able to serve the rapidly growing domestic consumer market. The country is already the world's biggest market for mobile phones and the No. 2 buyer of PCs and white goods. By our calculation, the number of households earning $6,000 to $15,000 a year will swell more than 40 percent, to 135 million, by 2020. Those making $15,000 or more will increase almost fivefold, to 65 million.

如果留在中国，那么企业还应当能服务于飞速增长的国内消费市场。这个国家已成为世界最大的移动电话市场，也是个人电脑和白色家电的第二大消费市场。据我们计算，到 2020 年为止，年收入在 6000 至 15000 美元的家庭的数量将增加超过 40%，达到 1.35 亿。而其中收入在 15000 美元以上的几乎将增加五倍，达到 6500 万。

Nearer to the Buyers

更贴近顾客

A third option is for companies to move all or part of their manufacturing capability closer to the consumer. Those serving the North American market should consider Mexico and low-cost U.S. states. Likewise, those serving consumers in Germany, France, Italy, the U.K., and Spain should consider Eastern Europe.

对企业来说，还有一个选择，那就是使得自己的全部或部分产能更贴近消费者。那些主打北美市场的企业应当考虑墨西哥和低成本的美国各州。同样的，主打德国、法国、意大利、英国以及西班牙市场的，应当考虑东欧。

Whatever companies decide—and it may be a combination of these and other options—they should understand that to thrive in today's volatile world, they need to create an adaptable and diversified approach to global production. Yes, China's wage inflation is wreaking havoc with the economics of doing business today, but it is merely the latest in a series of hard-to-predict scenarios for global companies. Tomorrow, the challenge could be a political crisis. The day after that, the emergence of a new competitor. And after that? Who knows?

无论企业作出何种决策 - 或许综合采纳上述建议或者其他建议 - 他们都应当理解，为了当今变化莫测世界中求得发展，必须采取适应性强的多样化全球生产方式。中国的工资上涨肯定对企业经营产生极大影响，但对全球企业来说，这只不过是一系列难以预测的事态发展中的新情况。明天，说不定面临的挑战有可能是政治危机。今后的每一天都可能出现新的竞争对手。今后的事情，只有天知道。

The point is that multinational companies need a flexible global supply chain to handle every eventuality. If CEOs can make this the prize of an eroding "China price" advantage, they will have delivered a long-term benefit to their companies.

重要的是，跨国企业需要灵活的全球供应链以应对不测。如果首席执行官们能将这视为日渐削减的“中国价格”优势带来的好处，那么他们就能给企业带来更长远的利益。

Manget is a senior partner in Toronto for the Boston Consulting Group and global leader of its operations practice. Mercier is a partner in London in the operations practice.

作者之一的 Manget 是波士顿咨询集团驻东京的资深合作者，在全球范围负责具体运营，Mercier 则负责伦敦方面的具体运营。。

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