分析：中国成品油提价治“油荒”China fuel price hike: long lines ahead

In Beijing on Tuesday, long lines began to form around gas stations across the city. It was one of the first tangible signs of the government’s decision to raise fuel prices, which went into effect Tuesday at midnight.

周二，北京各家加油站外都排起了长龙。这是成品油价上涨的首批迹象之一；中国政府决定自周三零时起上调油价。

Although the drivers waiting in line may have been worried about their pocket books, the increases are not all that large: gasoline now costs a maximum of 8,530 rmb per tonne (which is less than one dollar per litre), up from 8,220 rmb per tonnne. Diesel prices are now capped at 7,780 rmb per tonne, from 7,480.

尽管排队的司机们可能会担心自己的钱包，但此次涨幅称不上大：汽油最高限价从每吨8220元人民币上调至每吨8530元人民币（每升不到1美元），而柴油最高限价从每吨7480元人民币上调至每吨7780元。

The price hike is a belated bid by the government to bring fuel prices closer in line with global markets, as crude prices this year have risen. Officially, China adjusts fuel prices in step with the international price of crude. But analysts say that today’s increase is smaller than would have been dictated by global markets because of inflationary fears. An official from the National Reform and Development Commission, which governs prices, was careful to point out that the fuel price hike will have minimal impact on the CPI numbers.

鉴于今年原油价格有所上涨，此番涨价是中国政府让油价与国际市场接轨的一次迟到的努力。根据官方说法，中国油价的调整与国际原油价格同步。但分析师表示，由于担心通胀，此次涨幅要小于全球市场的涨幅。负责调控物价的国家发改委一位官员小心翼翼地指出，此次油价上涨对消费价格指数(CPI)的影响将是轻微的。

The new prices will make life a bit easier for China’s refiners and distributors—who sometimes have to sell at a loss when prices get out of joint. But it’s unlikely to address another key issue that’s been plaguing Chinese drivers across the country: diesel shortage.

涨价会让中国的炼油厂和分销商的日子好过一点——当油价脱节时，他们有时不得不亏本销售成品油。但这不太可能解决另一个让中国各地车主苦不堪言的关键问题：柴油短缺。

In Chongqing, truck drivers are lining up for three to four hours to fill their tanks with Diesel, according to coverage from state media CCTV. In central Henan province, the government has sternly ordered state-owned oil companies to provide diesel to gas stations, which local media compare to giving blood. The city of Chengdu has made special arrangement to secure diesel supplies, but private gas stations there are still not selling the fuel.

根据中国官方媒体中央电视台(CCTV)的报道，在重庆，卡车司机要排上3到4个小时的队，才能加满柴油。在中部河南省，政府严令国有石油企业向加油站提供柴油，当地媒体将此比作献血。成都市也已做出特别安排，保证柴油供应，但当地民营加油站仍不卖柴油。

There are two reasons for the diesel drought. Demand for the fuel has soared in the last several months, as businesses and individuals use diesel-powered generators to supply themselves with electricity. Power cuts across the country have been widespread as part of the government push to reduce electricity consumption.

柴油荒有两个原因。过去几个月，随着企业和个人使用柴油发电机发电，柴油需求激增。由于政府大力推行减少电力消耗，全国各地普遍出现断电情况。

Since the retail price of diesel is set by the state, this sudden surge in demand wasn’t passed on to higher prices. Instead wholesalers, betting on future price hikes, started storing diesel instead of selling it. Meanwhile diesel’s wholesale price, which is less tightly controlled by the state, started to soar and soon exceeded the retail price—so many gas stations could only sell diesel at a loss.

由于柴油零售价是由政府规定的，需求的激增并未转化为价格的上涨。相反，押注未来油价会飙升的批发商，开始囤积柴油不售。同时，政府管控相对不那么严格的柴油批发价开始飙涨，很快就超过了零售价，因此，许多加油站只能亏本销售柴油。

Wednesday’s price hike will help alleviate the imbalance but is unlikely to fully resolve the problem. There is also a basic shortage of supply: China’s diesel imports have soared and the country has announced a ban on diesel exports next year, according to reports. Those truck drivers in Chongqing may have to wait in line a while longer.

22日的涨价将有助于缓解这种失衡局面，但不可能彻底解决问题。还存在供应短缺这一根本问题：相关报道称，中国的柴油进口飞涨，同时中国已宣布明年禁止柴油出口。重庆的卡车司机可能还要再排一段时间的队。