全球市场从“抗通缩”转向“防通胀”Investors start to focus on inflation prospects

China wants to combat it, the US to create it. The possibility of rising inflation, and the way that could play out around the world is giving some investors a headache, just weeks after they worried about the opposite risk, deflation.

中国想抗击它，美国想制造它。通胀上升的可能性及其对世界各地的影响，正在让许多投资者头痛不已，而就在数周前，他们担忧的还是截然相反的风险——通货紧缩。

“Inflation is very high up the agenda of institutional investors,” says Keith Wade, UK fund manager Schroders’ chief economist.

英国基金管理公司施罗德(Schroders)首席经济学家基思•韦德(Keith Wade)表示：“机构投资者非常关注通胀情况。”

Latest data on Chinese inflation show consumer prices rose by 5.1 per cent in November, a much higher rise than expected. Food prices were the biggest contributors and some economists are starting to express concerns over rising non-food commodity prices as well.

中国最新的通胀数据显示，11月份消费者价格上涨了5.1%，涨幅远高于预期。食品价格是11月份通胀上升的最大诱因，而一些经济学家也已开始对非食品类价格的上涨表示担忧。

Yet for now, equity markets are in sanguine mood. Shares in Asia and Europe rose on Monday, largely on news that, in spite of the higher inflation, there was little prospect of a rise in Chinese interest rates soon.

不过股票市场目前却是一片乐观。亚洲和欧洲股市周一上涨，主要原因在于有消息称，虽然通胀上升，但中国短期内加息的可能性极小。

In the US, too, where the Federal Reserve is adamant that it will both boost inflation and head off the threat of a sustained period of economic stagnation and falling prices, investors’ expectations have moved little.

在美国，投资者的预期也几乎没有改变。美联储(Fed)有决心在推高通胀率的同时，抵御经济持续停滞和价格下降带来的威胁。

US Treasury yields may have risen substantially since the Fed announced its second bout of “quantitative easing”, QE2, in November, whereby it is buying an additional $600bn of long-dated Treasury securities to inject money into the financial system and revive the economy.

美联储11月份宣布了第二轮“定量宽松”(QE2)措施，将再购买6000亿美元的长期美国国债，向金融体系注入资金并重振经济。自那以来，美国国债收益率或许已经大幅上升。

But those gains have been almost matched by those in real yields, which are adjusted for inflation. The so-called “break-even” rate for inflation has remained close to its current 2.19 per cent through that period, JPMorgan Asset Management says.

但美国国债收益率的升幅与经过通胀率调整的实际收益率的升幅几乎相当。摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)称，在此期间，所谓的“损益平衡”通胀率一直保持在当前2.19%的水平附近。

Some analysts see that as a sign that markets are slowly normalising and discounting the “tail risk” of deflation that they had fretted for much of the year. “Investors are still hedging against an increase in inflation, but fewer are as focused on deflation,” says Dean Curnutt, chief executive of Macro Risk Advisors. “There is a more middle of the road sentiment out there than before.”

一些分析人士认为，这表明市场正在缓慢恢复正常，逐渐无视今年大多数时间一直困扰着市场的通缩“尾部风险”。“投资者仍在对冲通胀率的上升，但关注通缩的人减少了，”Macro Risk Advisors首席执行官迪安•科纳特(Dean Curnutt)表示。“现在市场上的中庸人气比以前浓厚了。”

Others, though, worry that financial markets might be shrugging off too lightly the risks of a jump in inflation and what that might mean.

不过另一些分析人士则担心，金融市场也许过于轻视了突然陷入通胀的风险以及可能的后果。

“You have to be careful what you wish for,” says Patrick Rudden, head of blend strategies for equities at AllianceBernstein in London. His research suggests that strong inflation is not good for equities and bonds. “If inflation goes to 3, 4 or 5 per cent then that is a problem for equities.”

AllianceBernstein驻伦敦的股票混合战略负责人帕特里克•卢顿(Patrick Rudden)说：“你必须考虑清楚自己到底想要什么。”他的研究表明，严重通胀不利于股票和债券。“如果通胀升至3%、4%或5%，那对股市就是一个问题。”

The more immediate worry is in emerging markets where the leap in Chinese prices is an ominous sign. This is mostly because the cheap dollars created by QE2 have poured into emerging market assets, stoking concerns about potential overheating.

更为迫切的担忧在于新兴市场。中国物价大幅上升就是一个不详的预兆。随着QE2产生的廉价美元大举注入新兴市场资产，投资者担心这些经济体可能会出现过热。

“The US fiscal loosening puts pressure on the emerging markets,” says Nigel Rendell, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “This creates more global liquidity, which is likely to try and force its way into the emerging markets. The stock and property markets in some of these countries could overheat.”

“美国放松银根对新兴市场构成了压力，”加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)新兴市场高级策略师奈吉尔•兰德尔(Nigel Rendell)表示。“这造成了更多的全球流动性，它们可能会跃跃欲试进入新兴市场。其中一些国家的股市和楼市可能会过热。”

Indeed, inflows into emerging market equity funds this year have hit $89bn, according to EPFR Global, the data provider. This compares with outflows of $79bn from developed world equity funds.

确实，数据提供商EPFR Global的数据显示，今年已有890亿美元资金流入新兴市场股票基金，而从发达国家股票基金中流出的资金为790亿美元。

That is not just causing problems in Asia. Brazil has introduced capital controls and this weekend the Turkish authorities hinted they might follow the Chinese and raise reserve requirements for commercial banks to take the heat out of their economy.

这不仅在亚洲造成了问题。巴西采取了资本管制措施，土耳其政府上周末暗示可能会效仿中国提高商业银行存款准备金率，以便为经济降温。

Turkey, unlike some of the eurozone’s heavily indebted economies, has weathered the financial crisis relatively well. However, the threat of runaway price rises – inflation has risen to 7.3 per cent – is a big concerns. Ankara is reportedly considering cutting interest rates to curb capital flows.

土耳其与欧元区一些负债累累的经济体不同，它相对安然地度过了金融危机。不过，价格上涨失控的威胁——通胀率已升至7.3%——令人非常关切。据报道，安卡拉正考虑下调利率，以遏制资本流动。

Monday’s benign reaction of equity markets to China’s news worries some economists. “With the continuing rise of inflation in China, markets have probably become a bit complacent about what China will have to do,” says Mr Wade.

周一股市对中国通胀数据的良性反应，引起了一些经济学家的担忧。韦德说：“随着中国的通胀率继续上升，市场可能会有些自负地认为，自己对中国将不得不采取的行动，已经心中有数。”

To protect against rising prices, strategists recommend a number of investments, including buying gold and other commodities. A traditional inflation hedge, gold hit a new nominal high last week.

为了防范物价上涨，策略师提出了若干投资建议，包括购买黄金和其他大宗商品。黄金是一种传统的通胀对冲工具，上周价格创下名义新高。

Mr Rudden says investors should look at commodity futures, rather than pure commodities, to take advantage of “backwardation” in these markets (see opposite page). Inflation-linked bonds are another popular investment. The US Treasury two months ago sold $10bn of securities with a negative yield for the first time, an indication of the strength of demand for these notes.

卢顿表示，投资者应关注大宗商品期货，而不是纯粹的大宗商品，以利用这些市场上的“现货升水”(backwardation)。另一种流行的投资工具是通胀挂钩债券。美国财政部两个月前首次发行了100亿美元负收益率债券，显示了对此类债券的需求非常旺盛。

But the biggest unanswered question remains: will inflation actually take hold in the US? There seems little evidence yet of consumers or companies wanting to spend again. In fact, some wonder whether the sovereign debt crisis in Europe could unleash a renewed wave of downward pressure on prices.

不过未能解答的最大问题仍然是：通胀会不会真的在美国出现？目前几乎没有证据表明，消费者和企业愿意恢复开支。实际上，还有人在想，欧洲的主权债务危机是否会给物价带来新一波下行压力。

“We think deflationary pressures will again rear their head,” says Mr Curnutt. “The potential deflationary impact of the eurozone sovereign debt problems is tremendous.”

“我们认为通缩压力会再次抬头，”科纳特表示。“欧元区主权债务问题造成的潜在通缩影响十分巨大。”

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has affirmed that deflation will not be allowed to occur. “Concern of inflation has increased, both as a result of QE2 and on the back of the Fed’s commitment to keeping rates low for a long time,” says Deepa Majmudar, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management’s global fixed income group.

美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)坚定地表示，绝不允许通缩发生。摩根大通资产管理公司全球固定收益部门投资组合经理Deepa Majmudar表示：“通胀担忧增加了，这既是由于美国实施了QE2，也是因为美联储承诺将长期维持低利率。”

Investors could be forgiven for nervously eyeing governments’ huge debt piles and the possibility of rising prices. As Mr Wade puts it: “People who have been concerned that governments could inflate away their debt are probably more concerned now.”

投资者紧张地关注着各国政府积累如山的巨额债务和物价上涨的可能性，这是可以原谅的。正如韦德所说：“那些曾经担忧政府会通过通胀降低债务规模的人，现在可能更加担忧。”