分析：韩国人被炮声“惊醒” Attacks alter perceptions of Pyongyang

When her teachers cancelled afternoon maths classes because of North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island last month, Yoon Na-ru, a high school student in Seoul, suddenly felt very scared.

上月，当老师们因朝鲜炮击韩国岛屿而取消下午的数学课时，首尔高中生Yoon Na-ru突然感到非常害怕。

Like many young Koreans, the 16-year-old had been sceptical about the government’s account of the sinking of a South Korean warship in March, which killed 46 sailors. “But this time the North Koreans definitely attacked us. It was a reminder that North Korea is really dangerous and has got bolder,” she says.

今年3月，韩国一艘战舰沉没，导致46名水兵丧生。像许多韩国青年一样，16岁的Yoon Na-ru也对韩国政府针对此事的解释持怀疑态度。“但这一次，朝鲜的的确确攻击了我们。这起事件提醒我们，朝鲜真的很危险，而且它的胆子越来越大，”她说道。

Although many South Koreans dismiss the risk of open conflict, Miss Yoon’s fears have been echoed across Seoul. South Koreans are reassessing their perception of the danger posed by Kim Jong-il after being faced with unsettling television pictures of North Korea’s first direct bombardment against civilians since the 1950-53 Korean War.

虽然许多韩国人不认为朝韩有爆发公开冲突的风险，但首尔民众像Yoon Na-ru一样，普遍对局势感到担心。这是朝鲜自1950-53年朝鲜战争以来首次把炮火对准平民，在看到电视里那些令人不安的画面后，韩国人正在重新评估自己对金正日(Kim Jong-il)所构成危险的看法。

“My view of North Korea has changed a bit because its attacks look like they are going to be more provocative or stronger than in the past,” says Jung Yu-chul, a 34-year-old banker.

34岁的银行家Jung Yu-chul表示：“我对朝鲜的看法有了一些改变，因为这起攻击让我感到，朝鲜似乎要变得比以前更具挑衅性、更加强悍。”

Security fears after previous incidents have often given a fillip to conservative South Korean administrations, such as that of Lee Myung-bak, the current president.

以往发生冲突事件后，民众对国家安全的担忧往往会提振韩国保守派政府的支持率，现任总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)的政府走的就是保守主义路线。

However, this year’s attacks have weakened the president’s stature at home in spite of winning him praise abroad.

不过，今年朝鲜对韩国发起的攻击却削弱了李明博在国内的声望，尽管他因这些事件在国外赢得了好评。

Mr Lee’s party was hammered in midterm elections after the sinking of the Cheonan because his government appeared to be covering up key facts. Worst of all, he frightened the electorate by prosecuting people who disagreed with the official version of events – a move reminiscent of South Korea’s military dictatorship, which fell in the late 1980s.

在“天安舰”沉没之后，李明博所在的政党在中期选举中遭遇惨败，因为他的政府似乎在掩盖某些关键事实。最糟糕的是，他对那些对官方解释表示异议的人士提起公诉，此举让选民感到害怕，因为它令人想起韩国在上世纪80年代末垮台的军事独裁统治。

Many people in Seoul are also critical of Mr Lee over the bombardment of Yeonpyeong island because he has appeared weak and at a loss to define a clear strategy to deal with the North.

首尔许多人士还针对延坪岛遭炮击事件批评李明博，称其表现得很软弱，而且制定不出一项对付朝鲜的明确战略。

“This incident makes me wonder whether our military really can defend our people and respond to a North Korean attack,” says Oh Min-woo, an accountant.

会计师Oh Min-woo表示：“这起事件让我怀疑，我们的军队是否真的能够保护我们的人民、对朝鲜的攻击作出回击。”

Mr Lee’s popularity rating has suffered, falling to 42.7 per cent after the attack, from 47.4 per cent in mid-November, according to a poll by Realmeter, a pollster.

民调机构Realmeter进行的民意调查显示，在这起攻击事件之后，李明博的支持率受到拖累，从11月中旬时的47.4%降至现在的42.7%。

Still, most people admit Mr Lee has no good options. Many are divided on whether aid to the North should be cut. Some have suggested closing a South Korean industrial complex in the North Korean city of Kaesong, while others favour talks or a greater US military presence in the region.

不过大多数人也承认，李明博没有什么好的选择。对于是否应削减对朝援助，许多人意见不一。有些人建议关闭韩国在朝鲜开城的工业园区，另一些人则支持谈判，或加强美国在该地区的军事存在。

“Yeonpyeong has completely changed my view of the North. Part of me now thinks we should put more pressure on it to the point it collapses, but then I get scared this could lead to war,” says Choi Eun-gui, a housewife.

家庭主妇Choi Eun-gui表示：“延坪岛事件彻底改变了我对朝鲜的看法。现在我有些倾向于认为，我们应对朝鲜施加更大压力，直到其崩溃为止。但一想到这可能导致战争，我就心惊胆战。”

Many Koreans also think it best to ignore the North rather than give the attention it seeks.

许多韩国人还认为，最好的做法是对朝鲜视而不见，而不是像它希望的那样去关注它。

Oh Yoon-min, who runs a recycling company, said: “They are just trying to scare us but I do not care.”

经营着一家回收公司的Oh Yoon-min表示：“他们只是想吓唬吓唬我们，但我根本没当回事。”

Although the lack of good policy options has dented the standing of Mr Lee and his Grand National party, support for the leftwing opposition, which is more sympathetic to the North, has fallen even more sharply. According to polls,

由于缺乏好的政策选择，李明博和他的大国家党(Grand National party)的声望受到削弱，但对朝鲜持更加同情态度的左翼反对党的支持率下降幅度更大。民意调查显示，执政的保守派的支持率约为43%，而左翼的韩国民主党(Democratic party)的支持率只有24%左右。

support for the ruling conservatives is about

高丽大学(Korea University)政治学教授李来荣(Lee Nae-young)表示：“我认为，只要朝鲜安全问题继续令人忧虑，人们就会更加支持保守的大国家党。”

43 per cent, while the leftwing Democratic party has support of only about