Lex专栏：中国货币政策“稳健”吗？China: still relatively imprudent

China’s economic policymakers announced this weekend at their central economic work conference that they would “prioritise overall price stability”, after an ugly surprise as inflation hit 5.1 per cent. Activity data suggested an overheating economy. But by the day’s end, the central bank had not followed up by raising lending rates.

在上周末的中央经济工作会议上，中国的经济政策制定者宣称“要把稳定价格总水平放在更加突出的位置”。此前中国通胀攀升到5.1%这一出人意外的糟糕水平。活动数据似乎表明，中国经济正出现过热。但最终中国央行没有采取上调贷款利率的跟进措施。

Markets will probably greet this as good news and an excuse for some more “risk on” trading but it should cause concern. It suggests that China is stuck in command-economy mode. Its leaders recognise that inflation is well above target, while industrial output growth accelerates, showing that capital is priced inefficiently. Official policy shifted this month from “relatively loose” to “prudent”. Yet all China wants to do about it is continue rationing by tightening banks’ capital requirements.

市场很可能把这视为好消息，并以此为由，在交易中承受更大风险，但其实他们应该感到担忧。上述情况似乎表明，中国仍拘泥于计划经济模式。中国领导人意识到，通胀已经远高于目标水平，同时工业生产增长加快，表明资本定价效率低下。本月官方政策从“适度宽松”转向“稳健”。然而，中国就此采取的唯一措施，只是收紧银行存款准备金要求，以求继续限制放贷。

The People’s Bank of China has tinkered with reserve requirements incessantly. Friday’s increase to an 18.5 per cent ratio was the sixth such rise this year and makes it higher than at any point in the last inflation cycle. But all this year’s “tightening” has failed to stem inflation, which is unsurprising as banks are awash with cash after the drastic stimulus of two years ago.

中国央行已多次调整存款准备金率，上周五又将准备金率上调至18.5%，这已是年内第六次上调准备金率，并使其高于上轮通胀周期中的任何时刻。然而，今年以来的所有“收紧”都未能有效遏制通胀。这不足为奇，因为自两年前实施了激烈的刺激措施后，银行如今资金充沛。

The PBoC’s lending rate remains at 5.56 per cent. It was more than a percentage point higher when inflation was last this high, amid the boom of 2007. In that cycle, rates peaked at almost 7.5 per cent. Letting the currency appreciate might also cut inflation, while cheering up much of the rest of the world. But the renminbi is no higher against the dollar than it was two months ago.

中国央行将银行贷款利率维持在5.56%。上次通胀像现在这么高时（那是在2007年繁荣时期），贷款利率比现行水平高出了一个百分点以上。在那个周期，利率最高接近7.5%。让人民币升值可能也有助于降低通胀，世界许多地区也将为此而欢呼。但目前人民币兑美元汇率和两个月前不相上下。

The PBoC might well soon come through with higher rates. And it could be argued that China’s inaction on these critical measures shows that its leaders think the inflation problem is not too much of a worry. They are certainly not dumb. But in the face of an obvious danger of overheating, such insouciance should prompt concern; not a rush to take on more risks.

中国央行可能很快就会加息。同时也可以辩称，中国不采取此类关键措施，说明中国领导人认为通胀问题无需过虑。他们当然不蠢。但在明显存在过热风险的形势下，如此漫不经心的态度应当引起担忧，而不是贸然承受更多风险。