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Friday, March 30, 2007
Shoving Match
The bulls and bears are really starting to hate each other. Today was a total shoving match. First the market blasts higher. Then it does about a 150 point reversal. It ends the day basically unchanged. Just look at the action over the past couple of weeks. You can see where the bulls and bears are starting to brawl at the red and green markers I've laid out.
The first quarter of the year is over, and in the coming weeks we can look forward to earnings season - - to, once again, see if there is anything that will give this market some direction. If you believe it has direction, you're wrong. Let's examine the percentage change of the major U.S. indices.
The Dow 30 - three months of trading - and basically unchanged.
The NASDAQ - basically unchanged.
The S&P 500 - basically unchanged.
Even the Gold & Silver index ($XAU) - basically unchanged. What......a..........bore!
I'm going to let mymassive post from yesterday stand on its own. I'm charted out. The week's done. Enough charts for now!
Finally, I was surprised and disappointed at the absence of comments from yesterday's video. As your punishment....Christian Clown College: Part 2.
',1)">
at3/30/200734 insightful comments
Links to this post
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Dead Letter Office
Greetings, beloved readers. We've got a lot of new folks here today since a talk I gave yesterday about ProphetCharts was attended by nearly 1,000 people. A lot of them are asking where to buy my book about ProphetCharts. You can get itby clicking here.
As you may recall, I finally escaped Chicago this morning to return to bucolic Palo Alto. On my way out of the airport parking lot, I grabbed my parking stub which I noticed was different and more modern-looking than those I had seen in the past. Sure enough, as I approached the cashier's terminal, I saw this:
Now the purpose of this, of course, is for me to pay. So what I would expect to do is (1) insert the stub (2) see the amount due (3) insert my credit card (4) get a printed receipt (5) move on with my life.
Instead, a chunky hand extended out of the toll booth and a man asked for the stub. Not wanting to be rude, I gave it to him instead of the machine. He then proceeded to put the stub in the machine for me. (Please note I've been using computers since the late 1970s and am thus pretty handy with technical tasks such as inserting stubs). He then asked for my credit card (as did the machine). I handed it to him, and......you guessed it........he inserted it into the machine for me. The machine returned the card and a receipt, both within easy reach, but he took them and handed them back to me. And I was on my way.
During this process, I noticed on his uniform sleeve was embroidered the following: "Proud to be a Teamster. Proud to be an American." Coincidentally, on my own shirt sleeve, the embroidery read: "Ashamed to Be in a Country where Union Goons Shamelessly Featherbed Pointless Jobs." I mean, I've only got one shirt like that. What are the chances?
Now, a number of you have been asking me some questions in the comments section. So allow me to reply to a few that I found recently:
Also a comment about Tim being a bear. He is not really a bear he is a closet bull. Being a bear creates controversy and increases the traffic on his blog so he pretends he is a bear. He lives a double life folks thats my conclusion. - zeus111
Untrue! A falsehood! I am a bear to the core, for better or worse (usually worse). I have virtually no incentive to increase traffic to this site.
any reason why you would buy puts of SPY? - Jon
Mainly because I was so disgusted with the bid/ask spread on SPX options. But considering the price movement of the SPY is so much smaller than the actual index, it's probably a pointless exercise. I'll just stick to the real thing.
You've not looked at SHLD in a little while. Is there such a thing as a double top head and shoulders? If that is a doofus question, I apologize. - Leisa
You're not a doofus, Leisa, and you know it. There is such as thing as a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern (which sometimes is just a technician's way of explaining really messy price action). As for SHLD, I don't really see it. But I've still got my puts.
1) One your $RUT chart, you show a very light blue line below the broken trend line. What's that for?
2) I am assuming you are short on everything in that list you provided, but I'm curious as to why you buy puts on some things and not on others. For example, I've bought puts (successfully) on AKAM a number of times recently, and yet it seems you'd rather short the stock... any reason?
3) You show Bear Stearns and Goldman twice in your list. Once on the main list and then a second time on the shorter list. What's that about?
4) One not so technical question: Is your family from Memphis, or was I misreading that prior post? - JackGint
To respond:
(1) You are seeing a portion of a much longer-term trendline that starts on August 13, 2004. It's the lower trendline of a multi-year channel. If that one ever gets broken, hurray.
(2) I usually short the stock if the bid/ask spread on the option is just too much to stomach, or if the option simply doesn't exist. Plus I want to moderate the volatility a bit, so I try to avoid 100% options.
(3) The first list is a personal portfolio. The second list is a portfolio for a trust account. Sometimes I like a position so much I'll have it in both.
(4) No - I was paraphrasing afairly famous Bob Dylan song.
I'm a bear also, but I've been wondering why you hang out at airports so much? - sab63090
Actually, I'm not at airports much. It's even written in my employment contract that business travel will be minimal - - I miss reading nighttime books to my kids too much for that sort of thing. It probably seems like a lot because I bellyache about it when I'm on the road.
OK, on to charts. The market opened strong today, fell for most of the day (which got me excited that maybe we'd push through that Fibonacci retracement level), but then unfortunately recovered about 60% of the day's initial gain. Kind of disappointing, but not surprising. Remember, just this morning I mentioned how we'd probably have to take a 'breather.' This is what I was talking about.
The NASDAQ 100 shows the same story. We're in a tight trading range now. Break above it, and we're going to probably have to wait a while. Break below it, and our revenge will be swift and terrible.
Yep, here's the Russell. It held that Fib level fairly well. Just look at the huge amount of action I've highlighted. Even if we do push below the Fib, that's a lot of muck we have to drill through.
Dow Theory fans who are bullish probably can't really count on the Transports helping them out. This doesn't look like a bullish setup to me.
And $XMI has "drop/retracement/drop again" written all over it.
A few specific bearish mentions. You're going to see more energy stocks today than normal. I think they've topped out. Here's Cabot (COG):
AMLN is a huge top, although it could be a fakeout. Its descent has stalled for a bit.
Black and Decker has broken a rare diamond pattern.
ESRX looks sharp. And check out my spiffy trendlines! Pretty, eh?
Goldman Sachs (yes, Leisa, I've still got those puts) has moving averages which are starting to converge after its huge run-up.
Noble Energy (NBL) is very high and is a low-risk put play.
Same with OXY.
Copper magnate PCU is high enough to be safe again.
PSB is a bit iffy, but with a tight stop it could be a good play.
And now we come to the Tim Knight selection of your video today. It may be one of the most depressing things you'll ever see. Yes. It's Christian Clown Training. Consider yourself warned.
',2)">
at3/29/200714 insightful comments Links to this post
Charlie Don't Surf!
This is going to be one of those danged "airport posts" which are shorter than normal, since I am frantically typing prior to rushing onto my plane. Forgive me!
The markets were nice yesterday for us bears, although I wouldn't be surprised if we took a breather here for a bit. The NASDAQ 100 does a fair job of showing how tired this market is, possibly moving into our dreamed-of lower highs/lower lows scenario.
Perennial favorite Russell 2000 is resting on top of its Fib retracement, which could mean a bounce up today. I really need it to penetrate through this line to move to the next logical level.
Apple has been a powerhouse, but I think it's a great put candidate now. Oh, and by the way, my experience with AppleTV completely sucked. I returned it the next day. Disaster.
FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.
McDonalds as a short......I'm lovin' it.
Here are my current positions......actually, the screen wasn't big enough to show them all. As usual, put options are shown in bold. See ya this evening!
at3/29/20077 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:aapl,fdx,mcd,positions
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Shoving Match
The bulls and bears are really starting to hate each other. Today was a total shoving match. First the market blasts higher. Then it does about a 150 point reversal. It ends the day basically unchanged. Just look at the action over the past couple of weeks. You can see where the bulls and bears are starting to brawl at the red and green markers I've laid out.
The first quarter of the year is over, and in the coming weeks we can look forward to earnings season - - to, once again, see if there is anything that will give this market some direction. If you believe it has direction, you're wrong. Let's examine the percentage change of the major U.S. indices.
The Dow 30 - three months of trading - and basically unchanged.
The NASDAQ - basically unchanged.
The S&P 500 - basically unchanged.
Even the Gold & Silver index ($XAU) - basically unchanged. What......a..........bore!
I'm going to let mymassive post from yesterday stand on its own. I'm charted out. The week's done. Enough charts for now!
Finally, I was surprised and disappointed at the absence of comments from yesterday's video. As your punishment....Christian Clown College: Part 2.
',1)">
at3/30/200734 insightful comments
Links to this postThursday, March 29, 2007
Dead Letter Office
Greetings, beloved readers. We've got a lot of new folks here today since a talk I gave yesterday about ProphetCharts was attended by nearly 1,000 people. A lot of them are asking where to buy my book about ProphetCharts. You can get itby clicking here.
As you may recall, I finally escaped Chicago this morning to return to bucolic Palo Alto. On my way out of the airport parking lot, I grabbed my parking stub which I noticed was different and more modern-looking than those I had seen in the past. Sure enough, as I approached the cashier's terminal, I saw this:
Now the purpose of this, of course, is for me to pay. So what I would expect to do is (1) insert the stub (2) see the amount due (3) insert my credit card (4) get a printed receipt (5) move on with my life.
Instead, a chunky hand extended out of the toll booth and a man asked for the stub. Not wanting to be rude, I gave it to him instead of the machine. He then proceeded to put the stub in the machine for me. (Please note I've been using computers since the late 1970s and am thus pretty handy with technical tasks such as inserting stubs). He then asked for my credit card (as did the machine). I handed it to him, and......you guessed it........he inserted it into the machine for me. The machine returned the card and a receipt, both within easy reach, but he took them and handed them back to me. And I was on my way.
During this process, I noticed on his uniform sleeve was embroidered the following: "Proud to be a Teamster. Proud to be an American." Coincidentally, on my own shirt sleeve, the embroidery read: "Ashamed to Be in a Country where Union Goons Shamelessly Featherbed Pointless Jobs." I mean, I've only got one shirt like that. What are the chances?
Now, a number of you have been asking me some questions in the comments section. So allow me to reply to a few that I found recently:
Also a comment about Tim being a bear. He is not really a bear he is a closet bull. Being a bear creates controversy and increases the traffic on his blog so he pretends he is a bear. He lives a double life folks thats my conclusion. - zeus111
Untrue! A falsehood! I am a bear to the core, for better or worse (usually worse). I have virtually no incentive to increase traffic to this site.
any reason why you would buy puts of SPY? - Jon
Mainly because I was so disgusted with the bid/ask spread on SPX options. But considering the price movement of the SPY is so much smaller than the actual index, it's probably a pointless exercise. I'll just stick to the real thing.
You've not looked at SHLD in a little while. Is there such a thing as a double top head and shoulders? If that is a doofus question, I apologize. - Leisa
You're not a doofus, Leisa, and you know it. There is such as thing as a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern (which sometimes is just a technician's way of explaining really messy price action). As for SHLD, I don't really see it. But I've still got my puts.
1) One your $RUT chart, you show a very light blue line below the broken trend line. What's that for?
2) I am assuming you are short on everything in that list you provided, but I'm curious as to why you buy puts on some things and not on others. For example, I've bought puts (successfully) on AKAM a number of times recently, and yet it seems you'd rather short the stock... any reason?
3) You show Bear Stearns and Goldman twice in your list. Once on the main list and then a second time on the shorter list. What's that about?
4) One not so technical question: Is your family from Memphis, or was I misreading that prior post? - JackGint
To respond:
(1) You are seeing a portion of a much longer-term trendline that starts on August 13, 2004. It's the lower trendline of a multi-year channel. If that one ever gets broken, hurray.
(2) I usually short the stock if the bid/ask spread on the option is just too much to stomach, or if the option simply doesn't exist. Plus I want to moderate the volatility a bit, so I try to avoid 100% options.
(3) The first list is a personal portfolio. The second list is a portfolio for a trust account. Sometimes I like a position so much I'll have it in both.
(4) No - I was paraphrasing afairly famous Bob Dylan song.
I'm a bear also, but I've been wondering why you hang out at airports so much? - sab63090
Actually, I'm not at airports much. It's even written in my employment contract that business travel will be minimal - - I miss reading nighttime books to my kids too much for that sort of thing. It probably seems like a lot because I bellyache about it when I'm on the road.
OK, on to charts. The market opened strong today, fell for most of the day (which got me excited that maybe we'd push through that Fibonacci retracement level), but then unfortunately recovered about 60% of the day's initial gain. Kind of disappointing, but not surprising. Remember, just this morning I mentioned how we'd probably have to take a 'breather.' This is what I was talking about.
The NASDAQ 100 shows the same story. We're in a tight trading range now. Break above it, and we're going to probably have to wait a while. Break below it, and our revenge will be swift and terrible.
Yep, here's the Russell. It held that Fib level fairly well. Just look at the huge amount of action I've highlighted. Even if we do push below the Fib, that's a lot of muck we have to drill through.
Dow Theory fans who are bullish probably can't really count on the Transports helping them out. This doesn't look like a bullish setup to me.
And $XMI has "drop/retracement/drop again" written all over it.
A few specific bearish mentions. You're going to see more energy stocks today than normal. I think they've topped out. Here's Cabot (COG):
AMLN is a huge top, although it could be a fakeout. Its descent has stalled for a bit.
Black and Decker has broken a rare diamond pattern.
ESRX looks sharp. And check out my spiffy trendlines! Pretty, eh?
Goldman Sachs (yes, Leisa, I've still got those puts) has moving averages which are starting to converge after its huge run-up.
Noble Energy (NBL) is very high and is a low-risk put play.
Same with OXY.
Copper magnate PCU is high enough to be safe again.
PSB is a bit iffy, but with a tight stop it could be a good play.
And now we come to the Tim Knight selection of your video today. It may be one of the most depressing things you'll ever see. Yes. It's Christian Clown Training. Consider yourself warned.
',2)">
at3/29/200714 insightful comments
Links to this postCharlie Don't Surf!
This is going to be one of those danged "airport posts" which are shorter than normal, since I am frantically typing prior to rushing onto my plane. Forgive me!
The markets were nice yesterday for us bears, although I wouldn't be surprised if we took a breather here for a bit. The NASDAQ 100 does a fair job of showing how tired this market is, possibly moving into our dreamed-of lower highs/lower lows scenario.
Perennial favorite Russell 2000 is resting on top of its Fib retracement, which could mean a bounce up today. I really need it to penetrate through this line to move to the next logical level.
Apple has been a powerhouse, but I think it's a great put candidate now. Oh, and by the way, my experience with AppleTV completely sucked. I returned it the next day. Disaster.
FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.
McDonalds as a short......I'm lovin' it.
Here are my current positions......actually, the screen wasn't big enough to show them all. As usual, put options are shown in bold. See ya this evening!
at3/29/20077 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:aapl,fdx,mcd,positions
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