外资套现中国银行类股 补自身窟窿 Foreign Lenders Cash Out In China

2009年 01月 08日 09:22

美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)和其它外资机构出售所持中国几大银行股份的决定表明，北京利用海外专业知识打造世界级银行体系的战略面临着更大的麻烦。

自2005年以来，外资金融机构共向中国的银行投资了250多亿美元，这是中国金融监管机构策划的全盘交易的一部分。海外投资者将能够进入中国的银行业市场；作为回报，它们要教会中国的银行如何盈利。

但这种合作的劲头正在减弱。如今，外资银行急于修复因全球金融危机而恶化的资产状况，它们已开始兑现离场。

周三，美国银行将所持中国建设银行的股份从19%以上减持至16.6%，通过配售方式抛售了56亿股H股，套现28亿美元。

与此同时，据道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)周三见到的合约细则和一名知情人士透露的消息，香港富翁李嘉诚设立的一个基金会也正在配售20亿股中国银行股份有限公司股票，可能至多筹集5.24亿美元。李嘉诚基金会有限公司(Li Ka Shing Foundation)指出，该基金会仍持有30亿股中国银行股份，这是其长期持股的一部分，在很长时期内不会出售。

上周，瑞银(UBS AG)以8.08亿美元抛出了所持中国银行全部1.3%的股份。

银行业分析师认为，其它外资银行也在计划抛出所持股份，不过他们称，此类减持不见得说明与中方合作伙伴的关系出现了问题。分析师说，美国银行和中国建设银行的关系一直很好。今年11月份，美国银行以70亿美元将所持建设银行的股份提高了近一倍。

全球知名外资银行的投资为中国的银行在2005年至2006年期间到海外上市铺平了道路。但三年的禁售期正纷纷结束。

大规模地减持也凸显出中外银行合伙关系所面临的困难，原因是预期与现实并不一致，彼此都对对方的表现感到失望。波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)驻北京合伙人霍尔格·迈克里斯(Holger Michaelis)说，主要的失望之处在于技术帮助上，如风险控制体系。令中方银行家常常感到不满的是，具有丰富国际知识和经验的外资顾问并不能解决本地的问题，因为他们不了解中国国内的情况。他说，这改变了中国银行家对外资顾问能够迅速解决问题的预期。

外资机构也对难以影响银行业务和不能控股中国的银行感到失望。多年来，海外战略投资者一直期望能够解除对外资持有中国银行股份不得超过20%的规定，但至今仍没有结果。

双方经常还存在竞争。迈克里斯表示，即便起步不错，中国银行家心里也总会怀疑是否应该相信这些战略顾问们的话，因为他们同时也是觊觎同一个市场的竞争对手。2007年中国银行宣布与苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC)旗下私人银行部门建立“独家合作关系”，然后到后来也只是中国银行启动了自己的自营财富管理业务。

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)、安联保险(Allianz SE)和美国运通公司(American Express Co.)合计持有着中国工商银行7.3%的股权，禁售期将分别于今年4月和10月结束。苏格兰皇家银行持有中国银行8.3%的股份也将于今年12月解除禁售。

和许多西方同行不同，中资银行相对较少涉足次级抵押贷款相关资产或是房利美(Fannie Mae)与房地美(Freddie Mac)等机构发行的债券。因此尽管中国经济开始放缓，中资银行在应对全球金融危机时也有较强的实力。

中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军认为，外资售股套现不代表大举撤资。他说，无庸置疑，外资银行会继续扩大在中国的业务。但他们会更专注于发展自身业务，而不是收购中资银行股份。

并不是所有外资持股都面临抛售。荷兰国际集团(ING Groep N.V.)收购北京银行16%股权的交易相当成功，该公司去年10月份表示打算将持股比例提高至20%。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)银行业分析师陈舜(Samuel Chen)表示，中国可能会鼓励外商向小型地区银行进行战略投资。他说，较长期来看，没有哪个公司领导层敢说他们能忽视这个市场。

直到5年前，外界都还认为中资银行从技术角度上讲已是资不抵债的了。但在政府耗费了约5,000亿美元清理不良资产后，海外战略投资者决定冒险一试。此后，中国四大商业银行中的三家（工商银行、中国银行和建设银行）先后在海外上市。


当时外界认为海外投资者会持续持有这些股份。2005年，在回应有关政府向外资出售股份售价过低的批评时，中国银监会主席刘明康对记者表示，他们必须长期与我们共同努力。

当时中国认为海外投资者能够帮助中资银行提高管理标准，引进技术和专业知识，共同组建信用卡和财富管理等新的收费业务。当时一个最为紧迫的目标就是解决本地银行体系的一个薄弱环节：风险治理。

与此同时，银行业分析师们表示，中国监管部门正就西方金融机构能带来什么益处展开争论，全球金融危机已经动摇了这些金融机构的声誉。罗兰·贝格咨询公司(Roland Berger Strategy Consultants)北京合伙人康雁表示，中资银行、保险公司和资产管理公司显然在进行反思，什么才是长期发展的最佳模式。

Jason Leow

（更新完成）A decision by Bank of America Corp. and other institutions to sell down their stakes in Chinese banks signals more trouble for Beijing's strategy of using foreign expertise to build a world-class banking system.

Since 2005, foreign financial institutions have pumped more than $25 billion into Chinese banks as part of a grand bargain engineered by Chinese financial regulators. Foreign investors would gain access to China's banking market and in return teach Chinese banks how to operate profitably.

But the momentum for cooperation has been slowing. Now foreign banks, desperate to replenish their balance sheets weakened by the global financial crisis, are starting to cash out.

On Wednesday, Bank of America trimmed its holdings in China Construction Bank Corp. to 16.6% from more than 19%, selling 5.6 billion Hong Kong-listed shares in a placement that raised US$2.8 billion.

Meanwhile, a foundation established by Hong Kong's wealthiest tycoon, Li Ka-shing, is selling two billion shares in Bank of China Ltd. to raise up to US$524 million for the charitable group, according to a term sheet seen by Dow Jones Newswires on Wednesday and a person familiar with the situation. A spokesman for the Li Ka Shing Foundation noted that the foundation still holds three billion shares in Bank of China, which 'are part of our long-term holding and won't be sold for a long time.'

Last week, UBS AG sold its entire 1.3% stake in Bank of China for $808 million.

Banking analysts believe that other foreign banks are planning to offload stakes, though they say that such sales don't necessarily point to problems in the relationship with Chinese partners. Bank of America and China Construction Bank have had one of the better relationships, analysts said. In November, Bank of America paid $7 billion to almost double its stake in the Chinese bank.

Investments by foreign banks with global reputations eased the way for Chinese banks to successfully list their shares overseas in 2005 and 2006. But three-year lockup periods, during which foreign investors weren't allowed to sell their shares, are expiring.

The scramble to exit highlights the difficulties of Chinese-foreign banking partnerships that have suffered from mismatched expectations and disappointment at what each side has delivered. Holger Michaelis, a partner at Boston Consulting Group in Beijing, said a major letdown has been technical assistance, such as risk-control systems. Chinese bankers are often frustrated by foreign advisers who have rich international knowledge and experience but can't solve local problems because they don't understand local conditions. That is altering Chinese bankers' expectations that foreign advisers can offer immediate solutions, he said.

Foreigners have felt betrayed by their limited influence over bank operations and their inability to gain ownership control. For years, foreign strategic investors have been anticipating a lifting of the 20% cap on foreign stakes in Chinese banks, but that hasn't happened.

Often, there has been rivalry. 'Even if there is a positive start, there is always the question in a Chinese banker's mind if he should trust the advice of his strategic advisers' because they are competitors vying for the same market, Mr. Michaelis said. In 2007, Bank of China announced an 'exclusive partnership' with Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC's private-banking arm, only to start its own proprietary wealth-management business later.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Allianz SE and American Express Co. own a combined 7.3% stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., with lockups ending in April and October. The lockup on RBS's 8.3% stake in Bank of China lapsed in December.

Unlike many of their Western peers, Chinese banks have had relatively little exposure to subprime-mortgage-related assets or agency debt, issued by entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That puts them in a better position to weather the global financial crisis, despite the slowing Chinese economy.

Zhao Xijun, the deputy director of the School of Finance at Renmin University of China, doesn't believe the foreign sales represent a wholesale retreat. 'Undoubtedly, foreign banks will continue to expand their footprints in China,' he said. 'But they will be more focused on developing their own business rather than buying into a Chinese lender.'

Not all ventures have been testy. ING Groep NV's 16% stake in Bank of Beijing Co. has been so successful that in October ING said it planned to raise its stake to 20%.

Samuel Chen, a banking analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., said China might still encourage foreign strategic stakes in smaller banks that operate regionally. 'In the longer-term perspective, no business leader will tell you they can ignore this market,' he said.

Until five years ago, Chinese lenders were considered technically insolvent. But after a cleanup that cost the government an estimated $500 billion, foreign strategic investors took the plunge. Three of China's four largest commercial banks -- ICBC, Bank of China and China Construction Bank -- have since gone public overseas.

Foreign investors were expected to hold on to their stakes. 'They have to put in efforts to work with us on a long-term basis,' China's top banking regulator, Liu Mingkang, told reporters in 2005, responding to criticism that the government had sold stakes to foreign investors too cheaply.

The thinking at the time was that foreigners would help improve Chinese management standards, transfer technology and know-how, and co-build new fee-earning businesses such as credit cards and wealth management. One of the most urgent aims was to fix a weak link in the local banking system: risk governance.

Meanwhile, banking analysts said Chinese regulators are debating what benefits can be gained from Western financial institutions whose reputations have been rocked by the global financial crisis. 'Definitely, there is a rethinking among [Chinese] banks, insurance companies and asset-management companies as to what is the best model for the long term,' said Kang Yan, a partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing.

Jason Leow ? 外资套现中国银行类股 补自身窟窿