三年内金价每盎司可突破1000美元

摩根士丹利：三年内金价每盎司可突破1000美元http://gold.hexun.com/2008-11-13/111205651.html
摩根士丹利分析师指出，矿产量减少、采矿成本上扬及需求增加将在三年内推升金价上破1000美元/每盎司。
综合外电11月13日报道，摩根士丹利商品研究分析师Hussein Allidina表示，金价在2011年有望升破每盎司1000美元以上，全球矿产量减少，采矿成本上扬及需求增加。
Hussein Allidina称，矿产量在2001年到顶后，一路下滑。过去六年，金价上涨一倍以上，3月17日触及1,032.7的纪录高点，美元下跌且油价上涨，增强通货膨胀将加速的疑虑。过去八个月，金价下跌31%，美元走强，油价崩盘，且全球信用紧缩危机引领全球步入经济衰退。表示，目前问题在于通货紧缩。
Allidina表示，全球经济增长放缓，相较于工业金属及能源，最不受影响的是农产品，玉米及黄豆“超卖”。
大摩看好：2011年或返千元
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/081113/3/98an.html
(報道)受環球經濟陷入衰退的影響，油價自今年七月近一百五十的高位大幅回落，作為避險及對沖通脹的黃金，價格雖然亦同樣回軟，但跌幅明顯較石油為小。金油比率由七月份的六點六倍，升至目前的約十二倍，即每盎司黃金目前可購買約十二桶石油。摩根士丹尼預期，金價於一一年或見一千美元。
據彭博報道引述摩根士丹尼商品分析員Hussein Allidina認為，當金礦產出量下跌，成本上升，加上需求上升，預期一一年金價或見每盎司一千美元。他指出，自二○○一年，金礦產量已見頂回落。
海嘯中「跑贏」油價
歷史上，黃金及石油的走勢趨向一致。有基金經理認為，今年下半年，黃金相對石油的升幅反映了投資者對衰退的憂慮。當經濟放緩，各國放鬆銀根，投資者自今年夏天以來，皆預期金價相對油價將上升，導致一輪購入黃金沽出石油的行動。
受累全球資本市場的去槓桿活動，金價自十月份以來亦累跌逾一成六，但金價相對石油，以及其他工業用資源如銅及鎳等都錄得較佳表現，同時相對股市亦較為堅挺。在環球經濟步入衰退，有基金經理認為，刺激經濟方案的資金，將導致通脹重燃，令美元轉弱，對金價有刺激作用。當去槓桿活動完結時，相信黃金將重新作為避險天堂。目前明顯地全球並非處於高通脹時期，但這並不代表黃金價格不會上升，因金融風險仍然存在，紙幣資產目前仍有很大的不確定性。不過，目前全球仍處於對流動資金的恐慌性需求，並非對避險資產的恐慌性需求。
金價於過去六年上升逾倍，今年三月曾衝上每盎司一千美元大關，三月十七日高位見一千零三十二點七美元，其後輾轉回落，十月中曾跌穿七百美元，但迅速反彈，昨徘徊於七百一十至七百二十美元水平。
Gold Holds Tight But "Upside Outweighs Risks" as Mine Output Falls, Chinese Demand Rises
http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1226586238.php
By: Adrian Ash, BullionVault
-- Posted Thursday, 13 November 2008 |Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
London Gold Market Report
GOLD BULLION PRICES held in a tight 1% range above last night's 3-week low early in London on Thursday, recording its lowest AM Gold Fix since Oct. 24th at $714 per ounce as commodity prices and world stock markets tumbled once more.
Crude oil touched $55 per barrel – a new 20-month low – while government bonds continued their "safe haven" gains.
New data showed Germany, the world's third largest economy, sliding into recession during the third quarter. China's industrial growth slowed to a 7-year low in Oct.
"We are still bullish on gold," said Paul Walker, CEO of the widely-respected GFMS precious metals research group, to South Africa's Classic Business radio show on Wednesday.
"We think there is a lot more upside potential for gold than there is downside risk. Gold has done very well, relative to other asset classes.
"For those who are still looking for a longer term play – not a 3-month play, but say a 6- to 9-month play – it wouldn't surprise me to see a $1,000 gold in that scenario."
Japan's Nikkei stock index today matched last night's 5% loss in US equities, while European markets lost 0.3% on average.
For French, German and Italian investors looking to Buy Gold today, the price held above Wednesday's one-week low of €569 as the single currency jumped 2¢ from an early low to hit $1.2590 to the Dollar.
The Gold Price in Sterling meantime recovered £480 an ounce – almost 2% higher for the week so far – as the British Pound continued its worst month-on-month drop since the crisis of 1992, down almost 7% from this time in Oct.
"I've made at least 15% profit over the past year, so it's going well," says one UK gold investor, speaking today to London'sEvening Standard.
"I look at what's happening to the stock market and people's savings in banks and I'm glad I'm in gold."
Figures compiled by Bloomberg News say the global credit crisis has now cost almost $1 trillion in financial losses.
Last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its estimate of final losses by nearly one-half to $1.4 trillion.
Following Wednesday's shock U-turn from the US Treasury on its "troubled asset relief program" (TARP), the government of Japan today offered $105bn to help the International Monetary Fund (IMF) finance its emergency bail-outs of emerging economies including Ukraine, Pakistan, Hungary and Belarus.
The G20 group of leading economies meets to discuss "Bretton Woods II" in Washington on Saturday, with India's prime minister – Manmohan Singh – set to demand a curb on the "economically damaging role of excessive speculative activity.
"When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done."
Meantime in the Gold Mining sector today, former world No.1 South Africa reported a 17.7% drop in Sept.'s output compared with the same month last year. Overall mine production slipped only 3.5%.
South Africa's gold output has fallen by one-half since peaking in the mid-1990s.
"Global Gold Mining production actually peaked in 2001 and has since been declining," says Morgan Stanley commodity analyst Hussein Allidina.
"When I look at the demand side, as income growth accelerates, the consumption of gold for jewelry purposes increases."
Global demand for physical Gold Bullion – whether in the form of jewelry, coins or bars – "is underpinning prices at lower levels," says a note from Religare Commodities of India, the world's No.1 gold consumer.
"Dealers report strong buying in major bullion market India as the wedding season gets underway. Chinese investment demand is [also] gathering pace this year, with investment reaching 38.4 tonnes in the first nine months of 2008 against 24 tonnes for the whole of 2007, the China National Gold Corp said at a conference."
Adrian Ash
Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – where you can Buy Gold Today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c)BullionVault 2008
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