中国必须应对经济挑战Beijing must take on China’s economic challenges

The revelation that China plans to build its first aircraft carrier to boost its maritime power, coupled with other demonstrations of greater political assertiveness, has important implications, including for macroeconomic management. In the coming year, China’s leaders face big decisions as signs of overheating of the economy become apparent, and with increasing pressure to reboot the country’s development model. But politics in China mean responses to these challenges will be enigmatic and uncertain.

中国计划建造第一艘航空母舰以增强海军实力，再加上其它凸显政治自信提高的迹象，这一切都有着重要涵义，包括对于宏观经济管理。未来一年，随着经济过热的迹象逐渐明显，随着调整发展模式的压力不断上升，中国领导人将面临重大决定。但中国的政治现实意味着，对这些挑战的回应将是晦涩而不确定的。

Growing intolerance of domestic opponents, and a prickly posture in the face of perceived foreign ones, are not unique to China, but they have constituted an Achilles heel in its long history. China’s recent shift in attitude could be related to the leadership transition, factional struggles in the Communist party, growing self-confidence or rising social unrest. But these can all be slotted under deep-seated insecurity and intransigence.

对于国内反对者越来越不容忍以及面对自己眼中的国外敌对势力的易怒姿态，并不是中国特有的，但这些特点在中国的悠久历史上构成了它的致命弱点。中国最近的态度转变可能与领导层换届、共产党内派系角力、自信提升或社会不安定加剧有关。但这些都可以归结为根深蒂固的不安全感和不妥协。

Neither is auspicious when China has to deal with rising cyclical and credit inflation, and the call for economic transformation. Both are liable to weaken the resolve to pursue change that will be disruptive in the short term, but harder if deferred.

在中国不得不应对日益上升的周期和信贷通胀以及经济转型呼声之际，两者都不是吉兆，都会削弱推行变革的决心。短期而言，这些变革将具有破坏性，但如果拖延下去，难度将会更大。

Chinese economic growth is running at about 9 per cent, with November releases for output, electricity consumption, fixed asset investment, exports and retail sales all surpassing expectations. The government wants to slow growth a bit, but China’s economy resembles an express train with two speeds: maximum and stop.

中国经济正以约9%的速度增长，11月公布的产出、电力消费、固定资产投资、出口和零售销售数据都超出预期。政府希望稍微放慢经济增速，但中国经济就像只有两档速度的特快列车：最高时速和停车。

Controlling inflation without causing politically sensitive growth to falter is challenging enough. But rising inflation, up to 5.1 per cent in November, would also threaten stability, and Chinese blogs and papers have reported a growing number of inflation-related “incidents”. Food prices are the popular explanation. But rising inflation is what we expect in an economy where credit conditions are loose, wages are rising more quickly and underlying economic momentum is robust. House price inflation has slipped to 9 per cent recently but the market remains firm.

在不造成政治敏感的经济增长下滑的前提下控制通胀，已经相当具有挑战性。但不断上升的通胀率（11月达到5.1%）也将危及稳定，中国的博客和报纸报道了越来越多的通胀相关“事件”。食品价格是热门的解释。但在信贷状况宽松、薪资上涨加快、基础经济动力强劲的经济中，不断上升的通胀是在我们预料之中的。房地产价格涨幅最近降至9%，但市场仍然坚挺。

The M2 version of the money supply and renminbi-denominated bank credit have risen by 55 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively, since the end of 2008. M2 is still growing at close to 20 per cent a year. Benchmark this by considering that Chinese M2 is 20 per cent bigger than in the US, although the economy is a third of the size. Even if the US data included M2 loans and deposits outside the formal measurement, the oddity of the contrast would hold. Real deposit rates in China are now -2.6 per cent, and real lending rates are barely positive.

广义货币供应量M2和人民币银行信贷较2008年底分别增长55%和60%。M2仍在以每年近20%的速度增长。作为参照，中国的M2比美国高出20%，而中国的经济规模仅为美国的三分之一。即便美国数据包括正规衡量标准之外的M2贷款和的存款，这种反差仍然鲜明。中国的实际存款利率现在为-2.6%，实际贷款利率勉强为正。

After bank reserve requirements were raised six times this year, further increases can be expected, along with some increase in interest rates.

在6次调升银行准备金率后，预计中国将进一步上调准备金率，同时利率也会出现一定上调。

China has already stated it intends to adopt a “prudent” monetary policy, and we shall see what this means in practice. But given the huge political sensitivity of stable and high growth, and the leadership succession in 2012, the central bank may remain behind the proverbial curve for a while. If inflation continues to rise, though, a sharp response would be inevitable.

中国已声明有意实行“审慎”货币政策，我们将看到这在实践中意味着什么。但是，鉴于稳定较快增长的巨大政治敏感性，以及2012年的领导层换届，中国央行在一段时期内可能仍会滞后于曲线。不过，如果通胀继续上升，力度较大的回应将不可避免。

Tackling inflation while changing the development model makes economic management all the more important. Economic rebalancing is about hoisting the share of consumption and services in gross domestic product, as that of capital spending and exports declines. In this way, China’s gross savings, the root of the high trade surplus, should fall from the current elevated level of 53 per cent of GDP. Put another way, it is about the transfer of vested economic and political interests from companies to consumers, cities to countryside, and savers, including the corporate and the government sectors, to spenders. Such a transformation will not be seamless, and because China is modernising rapidly, it may entail political reforms that are deemed incompatible with Communist party rule.

在应对通胀的同时改变发展模式，使经济管理变得更为重要。调整经济平衡意味着提高消费和服务在国内生产总值(GDP)中的比重，同时降低资本支出和出口的比重。就此而言，中国的总储蓄（这是贸易顺差处于高位的根源）应从目前占GDP 53%的高水平下降。换句话说，要把既得经济和政治利益从企业转移到消费者，从城市转移到农村，从储户（包括企业和政府部门）转移到支出者。这种转型不会一帆风顺，而且因为中国正在快速现代化，它可能意味着需要推行被视为与共产党统治不协调的政治改革。

That is why the recent shift in China’s political mood and aspirations is significant in a wider sense. It symbolises a mixture of apprehension, insecurity and perhaps hubris. It reinforces a point, lost in mainstream economic predictions about how important robust and adaptable political, social and legal institutions are to sustained economic success. This is not a good time for China to be getting grizzly, not least from the standpoint of the world economy.

这就是为何中国政治情绪和抱负近期出现的变化在更广泛的意义上相当重要。它象征着忧虑、不安全感，也许还掺杂着狂妄。这加强了主流经济预测中缺失的一点，那就是稳健而善于适应的政治、社会和法律体制对于经济持续成功非常重要。对于中国而言，现在不是张牙舞爪的好时候，尤其是从全球经济的视角来看。

The writer is author of Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy? and senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank

本文作者是瑞银投资银行(UBS Investment Bank)高级经济顾问，著有《崛起：新兴市场会塑造还是撼动全球经济?》(Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy?)