北京严阵以待对付通胀

If there were any doubt that the world’s two largest economies are on very different tracks, it was underlined this week. Just as Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, told Congress it was necessary to buy $600bn in government bonds to fend off the threat of deflation, Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, was promising “forceful” measures to cope with rising inflation.

如果说过去还有人对世界两大经济体的行进轨道截然不同有所怀疑，上周的事件便是反驳他的有力证据。当美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)刚刚向国会指出有必要购买6000亿美元的政府债券以抵御通缩威胁时，中国总理温家宝承诺将采取“有力“措施应对通胀上升。

The Chinese government has been put on full alert over the past week since the release of October inflation figures showing an unexpected spurt to 4.4 per cent. Appearing in a supermarket in Guangzhou, Mr Wen promised subsidies for those on low incomes, a crackdown on commodity market manipulation and – if needed – price controls on essential foods.

由于发布的10月物价数据显示通胀超乎预期地激增至4.4%，中国政府过去一周表现出高度警惕。温家宝总理在参观广州市一家超市时承诺，将向低收入群体发放补贴、打击大宗商品市场操纵行为、并且——有必要的话——对主要食品实施价格管控。

Mr Wen was speaking beside shelves of cabbages, which have been one of the main culprits. The prices of 18 vegetables monitored by the authorities have increased 62.4 per cent during the past year, contributing to food price inflation in October of 10.1 per cent, year on year.

温家宝讲这番话时正站在摆放圆白菜的货架旁，这种蔬菜就是价格上涨的主要食品之一。过去一年，政府监控的18种蔬菜价格上涨了62.4%，推动10月份食品价格同比上涨10.1%。

Inflation is a long way from the near-20 per cent levels that fanned unrest during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, but it does not take too sharp an increase in prices for all sorts of uneasiness to seep into the Chinese system.

1989年时，将近20%的通胀率部分导致了天安门事件的爆发。目前的通胀率距当时的水平还有很大距离，但即便价格上涨没那么剧烈，中国社会中还是暗藏了各种各样的不安情绪。

Even at an inflation level of 4.4 per cent, there are already signs that consumers are starting to hoard goods. Jiang Quangen, who runs a vegetable stall near Beijing’s main train station, says one old woman bought 35kg of sweet potatoes on Thursday – enough to last her several months. Wang Huiying, a saleswoman at the nearby Wumart supermarket, says that in recent days a number of customers have bought half a dozen 5kg bottles of vegetable oil.

尽管通胀率只有4.4%，但已有迹象表明消费者开始囤积商品。在北京火车站附近卖菜的蒋全根（音）说，上周四有个老太太一下子买了35公斤的红薯——足够她吃好几个月。附近物美超市的售货员王慧英（音）表示，最近几天，好多顾客一次性买了6、7桶5公斤装植物油。

Mr Wen’s principal motivation is to try to restrain such behaviour and anchor inflationary expectations. Not only do fears about inflation damage the Communist party’s image of economic competence, they could set off damaging consequences for the rest of the economy. Chinese households hold $4,500bn in bank deposits, which are currently earning negative real returns. If they started to lose confidence in the long-term value of their bank savings, it could unleash a destabilising flood of funds into other markets.

温家宝此番言论主要是为了遏制类似的囤积行为，并稳定通胀预期。通胀恐慌不仅会破坏中共有能力发展经济的形象，还有可能对其它经济部门产生破坏性影响。中国家庭持有4.5万亿美元的银行存款，现在实际收益为负利率。如果老百姓开始对于银行存款的长期价值失去信心，释放出的资金将如洪水般涌入其它市场，破坏稳定。

Yet even as China raised reserve requirements for banks on Friday, this week’s announcements have been more political theatre than real substance. One reason is that there is still plenty of debate between policymakers about how serious the underlying inflation problem really is and what should be done about it.

然而，尽管上周五中国再一次提高银行存款准备金率，这种通知更多是政治作秀，没有多少实质性内容。原因之一就是，关于潜在通胀问题究竟有多严重以及应该如何应对，政策制定者中仍存在大量争议。

While food prices have spiked, the prices of other goods have not risen so strongly – non-food inflation was only 1.6 per cent last month. That has led some to conclude that the current inflation is a temporary phenomenon, probably caused by bad weather during the summer, which will disappear with the next harvest of vegetables in two or three months. “Monetary policy cannot affect the weather,” as one official puts it.

虽然食品价格大幅上涨，但其它商品价格上涨没那么严重——10月份非食品通胀率仅为1.6%。因此有些人得出结论称，当前的通胀是暂时现象，大概是由夏季的糟糕天气造成的，再过两三个月等新一批蔬菜收成进入市场，就能得到缓解。正如一名官员所说：“货币政策无法影响天气。“

But others believe rising food prices are the harbinger of broader inflationary pressures created by the huge monetary stimulus China has embarked on during the past two years. New bank loans doubled in 2009 and the M2 measure of money supply has expanded nearly 50 per cent in two years. Hot money sparked by loose monetary policy in the US is only adding to the build-up in liquidity, while the prices in a whole range of asset markets have been exploding. “There is a clear and present danger that a vicious inflationary cycle will take off,” says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai.

但另一些人认为，食品价格上涨是全面通胀的前兆，而正是过去两年里中国实施的大规模货币刺激措施催生了通胀压力。2009年新增银行贷款增加了一倍，而两年内M2货币供应量扩大了近50%。美国宽松货币政策激发的热钱只会进一步加剧流动性的累积，与此同时，各类资产市场价格都呈现出爆炸性上涨。“恶性通胀循环发生的危险明确无疑、迫在眉睫，”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻上海经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示。

Within the government there are also tensions about how to fight inflation. Mr Wen raised the prospect this week of price controls on foodstuffs, yet few officials believe this policy can have much impact. Even with its huge planning apparatus, Beijing can no longer tell 600m farmers how much they can charge for their goods.

在政府内部，关于如何抗击通胀也存在矛盾。上周温家宝总理提高了实行价格管制的可能性，然而没有多少官员认为这种政策能产生多大影响。即便中国政府依然拥有庞大的计划机器，但它已经无法给6亿农民规定他们的农产品能卖多少钱。

The spike in inflation should strengthen the hand of the technocrats at the central bank who have been arguing for some months for higher interest rates and restrictions on bank lending. But a big jump in rates would be resisted by elements of the party-state, including the state-owned companies and local governments, which have borrowed so heavily during the past two years.

通胀率激增也应该可以让几个月来一直提倡加息和限制银行放贷的央行技术官员们底气更足。但大幅加息可能遭到部分群体的抵制，包括在过去两年里大量举债的国有企业和地方政府。

Supporters of a stronger currency should also now be in a stronger position – which could help dissipate some of the international tensions building up about China’s exchange rate. And even if the nominal exchange rate does not rise that quickly, inflation is boosting China’s real exchange rate, which should assist rebalancing.

支持人民币升值的人现在也应该占据更加有利的局面——这有助于部分消除围绕人民币汇率不断累积的国际矛盾。而且，即便名义汇率上升速度没那么快，通胀也会提高中国的实际汇率，从而帮助实现再平衡。

Yet there is a complication. If China reduces bank lending next year to restrain inflation, it will damp demand for imported commodities. That could mean further expansion in the politically sensitive trade surplus, even with a stronger currency.

不过还存在一个难题。如果中国为了遏制通胀减少明年发放的银行贷款，就会削减对进口商品的需求。而这意味着，即便人民币升值，具有政治敏感性的贸易顺差还是会进一步扩大。