West needs measured response to rise of China

来源：百度文库编辑：神马文学网时间：2024/04/29 22:07:13

_{West needs measured response to rise of China}

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2010-9-9 13:04

China is asserting its economic and strategic primacy in Asia, at a time when the vulnerabilities in the American economy, are highlighted by recession and US defence resources stretched by fighting terrorism and the war in Afghanistan.

One of Australia's leading defence analysts says a Chinese challenge to American power in Asia is already happening.

(Presenter: Sen Lam

Speaker: Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University and author of the Quarterly Essay, 'Power Shift - Australia's Future Between Washington & Beijng')

LAM: When you say Australia needs to prepare for a more dangerous region, is that directly related to China's rise?

WHITE: Well yes but not because China itself necessarily I think poses a threat as it becomes more powerful. I think for Australia, and indeed for Asia as a whole, the last few decades have been unusually good because Asia's strategic order has been so stable, and I think that's mainly been because the relations between Asia's strongest states, the US, China and Japan, have not been competitive. I do think we're now moving into an era in which those relationships are going to be more competitive, particularly between China and the United States, and that the way in which that competition plays out could have very big implications for everyone, including Australia. I think though whether or not that ends up playing out violently or peacefully will depend not just on China and how China uses its strength, but also on how the rest of us responds. So I think it's not just a matter that China's growing power might pose a threat, but the way in which the rest of us respond may also destabilise the region.

LAM: So would you go as far as to side with some US proponents of the China containment policy?

WHITE: No I wouldn't, I think that is the way to guarantee that Asia ends up becoming a less stable, more dangerous than it's been in the past. I think it's extremely important that as China's power grows we do whatever we can within appropriate limits to accommodate China's growing power, to recognise that it's growing economic power means that it will play a bigger leadership role in the region. To accept that up to a point at least that's legitimate, and I think the core of it is that those biggest states, particularly the US and China have to learn to treat one another as equals. And I think that's going to be a very difficult thing for America to do, but very important that America should find a way to do it.

LAM: And do you think that there are signs that America is already doing that, treating China as an equal?

WHITE: No I don't unfortunately, I think the signs are that as Chinese power grows I think the US is to a certain extent in denial. It hopes and expects and intends, I think you might say is determined to preserve its primacy, preserve the kind of leadership it's exercised in Asia over the last few decades, even as China's power approaches it and may indeed in the not too distant future, overtake America's. And I think that's a very significant issue, and I think it's something that countries in Asia have to reflect on. Do we want America to try and preserve primacy, to try and constrain China to a subordinate position, or do we want the United States to learn to work with China as an equal as China's power grows?

LAM: And you don't think that the US might review its policy in light of the shifting economic balance?

WHITE: I have seen very little sign of that so far. I think Americans hope that their present economic problems will pass, and I think they mistakenly believe that it's their economic problems rather than China's economic strength which constitutes the primary underlying shift in the balance between them. And I think that's a mistake. I don't think in the end it's America's current problems which constitute the change in the strategic balance between the US and China, but China's growth, and I think China's growth will continue, and I think America hasn't yet recognised that it's going need to adapt to that. And I think they will need to.

LAM: So if China is already challenging American power in Asia, what should Australia be doing?

WHITE: Well I think this poses Australia a very deep choice, do we support the United States if it decides to contest China's challenge to its primacy, or do we encourage the United States to move forward to a different kind of role in Asia, to stay engaged in Asia, actively engaged in Asia but not to dominate but to balance and share? Now I think Australia should do the latter, I think Australia should say to the United States we don't think you should try and dominate Asia as China grows. We think you should stay engaged, but not as the uncontested leader, but as one of a collective leadership, which also includes China. Now that would be a very difficult idea for Australians to get their heads around, we've always welcomed American leadership in Asia as essential to our security, so for us to encourage America to forego that would be a very big step. But I think the alternative to see ourselves drawn at America's side into an increasingly contested relationship with our biggest trading partner. And that doesn't seem like a good idea for anybody. (ABC Radio Australia)

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