油价剧跌是对经济乐观派的当头棒喝？

油价剧跌是对经济乐观派的当头棒喝？

WSJ2010年 05月 10日 17:14
Oil\'s Drop: A Comment On Economy?

Last week\'s sharp drop in oil prices may mean the gasoline-buying public can afford to drive a few extra miles. But it also suggests the economic revival will make for a bumpy ride.

Crude-oil futures\' losing streak extended into a fourth day on Friday, as the price of a barrel closed down $2, or 2.6% on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The rout has shaved nearly 13% off the price, and oil now costs $75.11 a barrel, its lowest level since mid-February.

It was the sharpest weekly drop in both dollar and percentage terms since December 2008, when the economy was contending with widespread concern about the global financial system.

The plunge is a humbling pullback for bullish traders who cheered oil\'s recent weeks-long run above $80 a barrel as a sign that the economy was coming back quickly and spurring demand for energy.

Instead, oil prices have now moved back to the middle of the relatively narrow range between $69 and $83 where they largely resided for six months, between late September and late March.

Lower crude prices will bring relief to American consumers in the form of cheaper gasoline, which fell along with crude oil this week. Last Monday, a gallon of gasoline was fetching $2.44 and had clocked gains of nearly 19% for the year. But over the next four days, gasoline dropped 31 cents, or 13%, including a drop of 3.12 cents, or 1.5%, on Friday. At the end of the week, gasoline was at $2.13 a gallon, up a mere 3.5% year-to-date.

Yet cheaper gasoline may not boost the economy much, given that U.S. government data released Friday showed the unemployment rate inching back up to nearly 10%, even though the economy added 290,000 nonfarm jobs in April.

Instead, the plummeting oil price indicates that some investors had become overly optimistic about the strength and pace of the recovery from the global financial crisis.

The rosy view had gained support in recent months from various sources, including a rising stock market and the impending arrival of the northern summer, otherwise known as driving season. The recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico served as a vivid reminder, meanwhile, that oil supplies could be constrained.

Instead, persistent pressure on Europe to contain debt woes, questions about the strength of Chinese growth, and a rise in U.S. oil inventories and imports suggested there was plenty of oil and not enough demand for it yet.

Even with this week\'s pullback, oil remains well over twice as expensive as it was in February 2009, when it briefly dropped below $35 a gallon. The rebound in the oil price since then served as an indicator of growing confidence that the greatest problems from the financial crisis were over.

The violent reversal of the past week caused some to change their view on where oil may be by the end of the year, but while traders turned warier, most are still betting more on a rise than a fall.

Traders who place their bets using options to buy oil at a future date now believe there\'s a 46% probability that oil for December delivery will cost above $90 per barrel when that contract expires in November, down from a 55% probability a week ago, according to a report Friday from Deutsche Bank. The report concluded that traders now think there is just an 18% probability that the December price will end up below $70 a barrel, up from 13% the week prior.

Liam Pleven

WSJ2010年 05月 10日 17:14
油价剧跌是对经济乐观派的当头棒喝？

上周油价大幅下滑可能意味着购买汽油的公众可以开车多行几里路了，但同时也表明，经济的复苏历程将崎岖不平。

上周五原油期货连续第四日下滑，纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange)每桶原油价格收盘下滑两美元，跌幅达2.6%。这轮下跌让油价跌去了近13%，目前油价为每桶75.11美元，创2月中旬以来最低水平。

这一周的绝对跌幅和相对跌幅都是2008年12月以来所未见。2008年12月之时，经济形势正受累于人们对全球金融业的普遍担忧。

此前数周油价一直在每桶80美元上方运行，看涨的交易员将此视为经济迅速复苏并拉动能源需求的信号而欢呼雀跃，此轮油价大跌对他们而言可谓当头棒喝。

而油价目前已重回69美元至83美元的窄幅区间中值；从去年9月下旬至今年3月底的大部分时间里，油价都没有脱离这一区间。

原油价格下滑将使汽油价格更便宜，而使减轻美国消费者的负担。上周汽油价格已随原油价格一起下滑。上周一每加仑汽油价格为2.44美元，相比年初实现涨幅近19%。但在之后四天，汽油价格下跌31美分，跌幅达13%，其中上周五当天下滑3.12美分，跌幅为1.5%。上周五收盘时，汽油价格为每加仑2.13美元，今年迄今涨幅仅为3.5%。

但汽油价格下滑对经济可能不会有太大的促进作用。美国政府于上周五发布的数据显示，尽管4月份非农就业岗位新增29万个，失业率仍缓慢上移重回近10%的水平。

相反，油价大幅下滑表明，对于经济摆脱全球金融危机的力度及速度，部分投资者是过于乐观了。

近几个月，油价看多者获得了多个方面的支持，包括股市上涨，夏季驾车高峰即将到来。另外，最近墨西哥湾的漏油事件也生动地提醒人们，原油供应有可能会受到限制。

但欧洲控制债务危机的持久压力、人们对中国经济增长力度的疑问，以及美国原油库存量和进口量的上升，都意味着石油有很多，而需求还没有跟上来。

就算是经历了上周的下跌，目前的油价比2009年2月水平的两倍都还要高出不少，当时原油价格一度跌破每桶35美元。油价此后反弹说明的是，投资者越来越认为金融危机带来的最大麻烦已经过去了。

上周油价的剧烈回调，促使一些人改变了对年底油价的预测，但就在交易员们变得更加谨慎的时候，多数人仍然是看涨大于看跌。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)上周五的一份报告说，投资看涨期权的交易员们目前认为，12月份交割的石油在期权合约于11月份到期时的价格，超过每桶90美元的可能性为46%，这低于一周前55%的或然率。报告推断认为，交易员们目前认为届时价格低于每桶70美元的可能性为18%，高于一周以前的13%。

Liam Pleven