新知: Must-know terms for the 21st Century intellectual: Redux

Must-know terms for the 21st Century intellectual: Redux
 
Blogposts can be strange and unpredictable things. There are times when Ipour a ton of energy and creativity into a post only to have it largelyignored. Other times I quickly and haphazardly put something togetherand it ends up attracting thousands of hits. Such was the case with myrecent post,Must-know terms for today‘s intelligentsia.
Owingto all the interest, feedback and requests, I‘ve decided to revise thelist and provide greater detail and links. I apologize for notproviding this in the first place.
Before I get into the list, however, I‘d like to clarify the purpose of this exercise.
First,I am trying to come up with a list of the most fundamental and crucialterms that are coming to define and will soon re-define the humancondition, and that subsequently should be known by anyone who thinksof themselves as an intellectual. I admit that there‘s an elitist andeven pompous aspect to this exercise, but the fact of the matter isthat the zeitgeist is quickly changing. It‘s not enough anymore to beable to quote Dostoevsky, Freud and Darwin. This said, while my list ofterms is ‘required‘ knowledge, I am not suggesting that it issufficient.
My definition of an ‘intellectual‘ also requiresexplanation. To me an intellectual in this context is an expertgeneralist -- a polymath or jack-of-all-trades who sees and understandsthe Big Picture both past, present and future. While I value andrespect the work of specialists, they can be frustratingly out of touchwith other disciplines and some of the more broader applications ofscience, technology and philosophy. Given the obvious truism thatnobody can know everything, there is still great value in havingindividuals understand a diverse set of key principles.
Also, Iadmit that my list is biased in favour of my own personal specialtiesand interests, but I have made a conscious effort to be ascross-disciplinary as possible. There are terms from computer science,cosmology, neuroscience, environmentalism, sociology, biotechnology,philosophy, astrobiology, political science, and many other fields.
Finally,I tried to be as generalized as possible and keep the number of termsdown to a minimum; I made an effort to include other integral conceptsin the descriptions.
With that lengthy preamble complete, here is my revised list:Accelerating Change: That the pace of technological development is accelerating is now undeniable. The steady onslaught ofMoore‘s Law and its eerie regularity is the most profound example. As thinkers likeRay Kurzweiland others have shown, the onslaught of accelerating change throwscommonly held time-frames out the window. And that this rate of changeis exponential implies radical social disruption around the mid-pointof the 21st Century.
Anthropic Principle:Once considered a philosophical lark, the anthropic principle hasbecome an integral methodological tool with which to best analyze theextremeunarbitrarinessof the Universe‘s parameters. The AP, which suggests that ourUniverse‘s qualities are unavoidable in consideration of the presenceof observers, has helped cosmologists, astrobiologists and quantumphysicists as they work with such related concepts as thefine-tuning hypothesis,string theory, and variousmultiverse theories.
Artificial General Intelligence:This ain‘t your daddy‘s AI. Rather, AGI describes the kind ofintelligence that you and I have -- the commonsense knowhow we havewhen we‘re put into unfamiliar situations. Once developed, artificialagents endowed with AGI will be non-specialized intelligent entitiesthat will come to represent the bona fide synthetic equivalent to humanintelligence, and then move beyond.
Augmented Reality: AR describes the fusion of the real world with the virtual. By usingeyetaps,eartaps and implants, individuals will be able to filter unwantedinformation from their sensory fields (such as annoying advertising andsounds). Alternately, users will have new information virtuallyinserted into their environment, including descriptions of landmarks,maps, or even an alert notification that a familiar person isapproaching. Imagine the gaming possibilities...
Bayesian Rationality:Bayesian rationality is a probabilistic approach to reasoning. Bayesianrationalists describe probability as the degree to which a personshould believe a proposition. They also applyBayes‘ theoremwhen inferring or updating their degree of belief when given newinformation. Some scientists and epistemologists hope to replace thePopperian view of proof with a Bayesian view.
Cosmological Eschatology(aka physical eschatology): CE is the study of how the Universedevelops, ages, and ultimately comes to an end. While hardly a newconcept, what is new is the suggestion that advanced intelligence mayplay a role in the universe‘s life cycle. Given the radical potentialfor postbiological superintelligence, a number of thinkers havesuggested that universe engineering is a likely activity for advancedcivilizations. This has given rise to a number of theories, includingthedevelopmental singularity hypothesis and theselfish biocosm hypothesis.
Engineered Negligible Senescence:Aging is increasingly coming to be regarded as a disease, and as suchit is privy to treatment and therapies leading to outright eradication.Indefinite lifespans may be as little as 50 years away.
Existential Risks:The development of nuclear weapons marked a disturbing turning pointfor the human species: we are increasingly coming into the possessionof apocalyptic technologies. Soon to join the list are such problems asa malevolent superintelligence, deliberate or accidental misuse ofnanotech, runaway global warming, a killer artificial virus, anantimatter holocaust, or a particle accelerator disaster. Read morehere andhere. Adding insult to injury is theDoomsday Argument.
Extended Identity: Human activity is increasingly migrating to the digital realm. The rise in popularity ofMMORPGs such asSecond Life andWorld of Warcraftshow that the self can, to a non-trivial degree, be transfered to analternative medium. With the maturation of these technologies will comedistributed personhood and new legal protections to guarantee safe andubiquitous online activity.
FermiParadox: The FP is the disturbing realization that, given the extreme age of the galaxy and the radical potential for post-Singularity intelligences (including their ability to disseminateVon Neumann replicators),our galaxy should be saturatedwith advanced civilizations and megaprojects by now. Yet, we see nosigns of ETI‘s. Consequently, any predictions about the future of humanintelligence must seek to reconcile this observation. Key theories todate include theGreat Filter hypothesis, themigration hypothesis (pdf), and thetranscension hypothesis (the idea of inward migration into increasingly sophisticated and complexMEST space (Matter, Energy, Space, and Time)).
Friendly AI: If we are going to survive theSingularityand the onset of greater-than-human AI, it had better be friendly. Andif it turns out to be friendly, it won‘t be by accident. Computerscience theorists such asEliezer Yudkowsky andBen Goertzelare already working on what may ultimately prove to be an intractableproblem. A poorly programmed, malevolent, or misguided SAI coulddestroy all of humanity with a mere thought.Asimov‘s Three Laws will do little against incomprehensibly powerfulautopotent entities (a term coined byNick Bostrom indicating total self-awareness and ability to self-modify).
Human Enhancement:Humans are about to decommission natural selection in favour of guidedevolution. Darwinian processes gave humanity a good start, but Homo sapiens can be improved. Owing to advances ingenetics, cybernetics, nanotechnology, computer science, and cognitive science,humans are set to redefine the human condition. Future humans can lookforward to longer lives, enhanced intelligence, memory, communicationand physical skills, and improved emotional control. Humans mayeventually cease to be biological andgendered organisms altogether, giving rise to theposthumanentity. Human enhancement will irrevocably alter social arrangements,interpersonal relationships, and society itself. And there‘s also theadded potential fornonhuman enhancement.
Human Exceptionalism(aka human racism): Not everyone is in favour of human enhancement andthe prospect of greater-than-human intelligence. Nor is everyone infavour of extending personhood outside the human sphere. These ‘humanexceptionalists‘, a group that includes anti-transhumanistWesley Smith,argue that being human is what matters, and that to give equal moralcurrency to non-humans is a violation of human dignity and worth. Theopposing viewpoint to this is that ofNon-Anthropocentric Personhood-- the notion that nonhumans, be they animals, robots, or uploadedminds, have the potential for personhood status, and by consequence,are worthy of moral consideration.
Information Theoretic Death:New technologies will soon demand that we redefine what we mean bydeath. It is becoming increasingly unsatisfactory to declare death whenthe heart stops. As long as the information within the brain can bepreserved and restored, a person should not be considered irrevocablydead. Given the potential formolecular nanotechnologyand other future biotechnological advances, it is reasonable to suggestthat most cognitive impairment will someday be repairable.Consequently,we will need to reconsider the status of persons frozen in cyronic stasis or hooked up to life support systems.
Mass Automation:The robotic revolution has only just begun. Robots, AI and automatedsystems are poised to dramatically reduce the amount of manual laborperformed by humans. For example, we are less than 10 years away fromthe advent of self-driving cars. What will that mean for taxi and busdrivers? Checkouts at grocery stores are already becoming automated asare a significant number of factory jobs. The good news is that a lotof demeaning, difficult and dangerous work is about to be eliminated,the bad news is that it will likely cause serious employment issues.
Memetic Engineering: This is the radical and controversial idea that the propagation and quality of information should be monitored and managed.Memeticengineering is a term coined by Richard Dawkins, and has beenelaborated upon by such thinkers as James Gardner, Robert Wright,Daniel Dennett (who calls for increased cultural health) and WilliamSims Bainbridge (to enhance group and societal outcomes). For example,advocates of ME would argue that some religious memes are viral and andneed to curbed. I havealso argued along these lines. On a related note, a burgeoning movement is afoot to help peopleovercome their biases.
Mind Transfer(aka ‘uploading‘): Uploading is the theoretical prospect oftransferring cognition and consciousness to a digital medium, namelysupercomputers. Recent advances in neuroscience are increasingly comingto re-enforcefunctionalist interpretations of mind. Given theChurch-Turing theoryof universal computational compatibility, there is strong reason tosuspect that the mind‘s processes can be duplicated in computers. Thishas led to speculation about massive societal uploads, entirecivilizations living within massive supercomputers, extreme lifeextension, and entire lifespans lived in open-ended virtual realityenvironments and simulations. A number of thinkers, includingroboticistHans Moravec, have outlined various uploading techniques. Personally, I believe the jury is still out on whether or not we will be able tocode an algorithm for consciousness.
Molecular Assembler: If you‘re familiar with aStar Trek replicatoryou know about molecular assemblers. These devices could take a clumpof matter and reconstitute it into anything we desire, so long we havethe molecular schematics. The device would work in a similar manner tothe way in which genes and ribosomes function to produce protein.Needless to say, the impacts of an assembler would be monumental. Thehumanitarian impact would be great, creating unprecedented materialwealth and access to resources. At the same time however, it would bethe most dangerous invention ever devised, capable of creating any kindof apocalyptic device and evenself-replicating entities that could causeglobal ecophagy.
Neurodiversity: Pending biotechnologies will create a multiplicity of psychological modes of being. Today,recreational drug users and theautistic rightscommunity contend that the obsession with maintaining ‘neurotypicality‘is a form of oppression. In the future, technologies such asneuropharmaceuticals, cybernetics and other cognotech will offerindividuals an unprecedented opportunity to experience alternativesubjective mental states. Like anything, however,neuroenablement andcognitive liberty are rights that will have to be fought for.
Neural Interface Device:An NID is any device that enables the brain to interface with acomputer. Today, paraplegics use NID‘s to move computer cursors withtheir thoughts alone. Eventually this will lead to advanced prostheses,novel remote control concepts, and even the almighty brain-jack asportrayed in such sci-fi films asThe Matrix.
Noosphere(aka metaconsciousness): Human communication and interaction mayeventually advance to the stage where even conscious thought may beglobalized and massively shared. This will lead to the rise of theso-called noosphere.
Open Source:This is a term that most people are familiar with, but it‘s worthre-stating. The open source revolution, where information is freelydistributed and editable, is already reshaping a number of industriesand upsetting traditional economic and intellectual property models.Wikipedia has very quickly become the world‘s largest repository of encyclopedic information.Linuxand other open source software continue to rival the big players. Andlooking further down the line, there‘s the potential for open sourcescience, culture, and the disturbing potential foropen source warfare.
Participatory Panopticon: An offshoot ofDavid Brin‘s transparent society,Steve Mann‘s sousveillance, and Charlie Stross‘spanopticon Singularity, the Participatory Panopticon is a proposed strategy for dealing with the onset ofubiquitous surveillance. Coined by environmentalist and forward thinkerJamais Cascio,the PP is the suggestion that all citizens will soon have the toolswith which they can watch each other and keep themselves accountablefor their actions.
Political Globalization:Though it lags behind economic and cultural globalization, politicalglobalization and the thrust towards world federalism is happeningnonetheless. While it may be a while before borders completelydissolve, nations and institutions are already developing co-operativeand positive-sum arrangements. This process may unfold quicker thanexpected. It was only 60 years ago that Europe tore itself apart; todayEurope forms the world‘s most powerful economic and political union.
Post-Scarcity Economy:A post-scarcity economy is a hypothetical form of economy or society inwhich things such as goods, services and information are free, orpractically free. Such a future could come about due to abundance offundamental resources (think nano, AI, alternative energy, etc.), inconjunction with sophisticated automated systems capable of convertingraw materials into finished goods (namely by molecular assemblers). Insuch a world, manufacturing would be as easy as duplicating software.
Quantum Computation: Today‘s computers run on what‘s called aVon Neumann architecture.This basic idea has existed for decades, but there is a new conceptunder development -- an idea for computation in which bits (or qbits)are stolen from alternate universes. Seriously. The basic principle isthat the quantum properties of particles can be used to represent andstructure data, and that quantum mechanisms can be devised and built toperform operations with this data. The long-and-the-short of this meansthat future computers running on such a platform would be ludicrouslypowerful and fast. As an example, some modern simulations that aretakingIBM‘s Blue Genesupercomputer years would take a quantum computer only a matter ofseconds. The prospect of quantum computers throws projections of anupper bound on computation out the window. Thinkers likeDavid Deutsch have suggested that our universe may be a kind of quantum computer, whileStuart Hameroff notes that brains may also be a type of quantum machine.
Radical Luddism: UnabomberTheodore Kaczynski may have been the first of a new breed of radical anti-technology terrorists. In his manifesto, titledIndustrial Society and Its Future,he argued that his actions were a necessary (although extreme) ruse bywhich to attract attention to what he believed were the dangers ofmodern technology. Given the extreme and disruptive potential forbiotechnology, AI, nanotechnology and cybernetics, it is safe to assumethat a fringe segment of society will take it upon themselves toprevent their development by any means necessary.
Remedial Ecology:Humans have really messed up this planet, but that doesn‘t mean wecan‘t fix what we‘ve broke. Remedial ecology is the notion that withthe right tools and knowhow we can repair the damage that‘s been done.By usingbioremediative processes,for example, we can use genetically engineered microorganisms to removetoxic or unwanted chemicals from the environment, or break downhazardous substances into less toxic or nontoxic substances in soil,groundwater, sludge and sediment. And looking further into the futurethere‘s the added potential for not just repair but also redesign.Bruce Sterling‘sViridian movement is a step in this direction.
Simulation Argument:The SA, which suggests that we may be living inside a computersimulation, is important from metaphysical, cosmological, andphilosophical perspectives in that it sweepingly upsets conventionalnotions of existence and our place in the Universe. It also gives us apotential glimpse into the activities of superintelligences. The SA,aside from its Cartesian epistemological implications, gives rise to ahost of ethical issues, including the ethics of simulating consciousbeings and their potential moral worth. This has already given rise tothe reactionary concept ofsubstrate chauvinism,which is the conviction that only biological matter can carry moralworth. Substrate chauvinism is also used to dismiss the idea thatself-aware robots could ever be regarded as persons.
Soft Paternalism(aka Libertarian Paternalism): States are increasingly working toprotect their citizens from themselves. People have bad habits, areprone to ignorance, and are often capable of self-destruction. Insteadof using coercion, however, states are softly encouraging theircitizens to take better care of themselves and their affairs. Forexample, in such an "avuncular state" employees would be signed up forcompany pension schemes by default. Freedom of choice is maintained,but default policies protect the ignorant and lazy from theconsequences of their mistakes.
Technological Singularity:Accelerating change may lead to an existential paradigm shift for thehuman species. How this will look like and how it will come about isstill a mystery, giving rise to a social event horizon known as theTechnological Singularity. In all likelihood it will come about throughthe advent ofsuperintelligence.It has also been referred to as a potential ‘intelligence explosion,‘or a time when the speed of technological development reaches maximallevels. Such an event could lead to human extinction or the advent ofposthuman existence.