２００９年经济灾难预测

2009年经济灾难预测
Roger Wiegand（tigergoo翻译）
2008－12－22
“我们认为我们现在有足够的资料从基本面和技术面来对2009年做一些严肃的预报和预测。2008年是一个令人讨厌的年份，很多事情被引爆，并且还远远没有得到修复。财政部长保尔森告诉我们这个星期没有更多的惊喜，还告诉我，我们甚至还没有发现金融衍生怪物的一小部分。拿纳税人的7000亿美元仅仅是一个热身。对交易商和投资者来说，更大的问题是未来会发生什么以及何时发生。
在下面的报告中，我们将考虑全球经济的关键点，并预测2009年的结果。
2008年最重要的新闻是全球大型银行的净资产的解体以及他们对运作正常业务和提供市场流动性贷款的脆弱的自我修复能力。
伯南克和保尔森只帮助坏孩子银行恢复流动性以保持营业状态，而不把信贷扩张提供给西部或全球经济体的任何企业。
2009年的结果将是没有显著的银行贷款，采取更多的救助资金和撇清各种不良贷款。
我们认为最大的看点是保险业巨头美国国际集团（AIG）的巨大灾难。尽管多次注资数十亿美元拯救，AIG仍处于千钧一发之际。
2009年的结果将是AIG的意外坠落和失败威胁全球，导致整个西方国家和亚洲国家的保险业无法开展业务，除非使用强制保险政策。
大多数人不理解这个的怪物的滑落将产生什么后果。我们认为这几乎无法估量的，这就是为什么保尔森给他们这么多钱。
我们的新总统决心进行一项8600亿至1万亿美元的艰巨努力，以实现新的经济复苏，尽管他的一些想法的确是崇高，但总体规划将毫无效果，第二次大萧条仍将发生，股市将在2009年5月和9-10月间坠落。
我们认为最严重的打击将在2009年9月的晚些时候。
在明年春天，我们看到：
（ 1 ）第二波更大的住宅按揭违约浪潮；
（ 2 ）第一波汽车消费贷款违约的大浪；
（ 3 ）超过400亿美元的信用卡违约，将打击银行贷款；
（ 4 ）第一波购物商场、办公楼和其他商业地产的抵押贷款止赎权丧失；
（ 5 ）最后，无保证金资金或定金的CDS交易将上演华丽的终场乐章！我们今天听到的总数是500万亿美元！我甚至不能形容这个数字。
这五个融合的死亡列车将带着道琼斯指数从死猫跳的10400-10800回到7250 ，甚至6600，或5600。
股市交易者和投资者有一个更坚实的季度，我们认为即将到来的奥巴马万亿美元的施舍能够恢复一些股市的损失。
我们认为，提升股票市场将有助于让大多数部门获得一些恢复，并且提供了股市触底和发现新的基地的幻想。
严峻的现实是，股价在4月或5月上旬达到峰值后进行的前所未有的高台跳水吓得美国人和全世界不知所措。
即使这些事件和不断上升的失业率问题出现，经济观察家和分析家们继续会信誓旦旦地说最坏的时期已经过去，底部已经出现，一个良好的、新的、熠熠生辉的世界贸易和投资体系将在2009年秋季之前出现在我们光明的经济中。
然后，在9月末10月初，纽约，伦敦，东京和亚洲市场将发生一个巨大的崩溃。
多低才算低，多坏才是尽头？
我们认为，道琼斯可能在2009年11月1号终结，从5600附近跌至3000点，甚至1500点。跨国公司的市盈率（PE）将降至4-7。今天，他们中的大多数接近18。
这种严重性的预测告诉了我们什么？
美国现在全国失业率触及16 ％ ，官方公布的数字只是真实数字的一半。
到2009年秋天，美国的实际失业率将接近1930年代整个大萧条时期的水平即25 ％，可悲的是，这并不是最严重的，我们预测美国真实的失业率将达到30-40 ％ 。在密歇根州和俄亥俄州，40 ％的失业率也并非天方夜谭。
几个欧洲国家都为失业人士建立了更大更多的社会安全网。而美国国家当局几乎没有准备。
美国联邦政府提供食品券的部门和提供福利供应的工作将被淹没。这将是一次卡特里娜飓风对全美国饥饿公民的袭击。
城市地区将看到犯罪率暴涨，一些城市的部分地区则完全无法居住。
在最近的报告中，我们已经看到1100万美国公民接受粮食援助、70万儿童每天挨饿。我们怀疑接受粮食帮助的真实数字将达到3500万人，其中一些是幼小的、手无寸铁的儿童。政府仍然会否认，而且无论如何也不准备宣布全国紧急状态。随着事态恶化，针对富裕人群的粮食骚乱和其他暴力行为将司空见惯。
未来三年内银行倒闭的数量将达数千。另外，2011年或2012年，美元指数可能击破最近的低点70.00，下滑到46.00。
当联邦储备委员会和美国财政部拼命印刷和分发现金以刺激停滞不前的经济，甚至超低利率也失效时，通货膨胀或潜在的恶性通货膨胀就是很实际的。伯南克已经没有降息空间。
消费者将破产或走向破产。相互关联的家庭户数将增加一倍和两倍，甚至与一些雇员在同一个屋檐下。基本租金成本，按揭付款，医疗保健，食品，公用事业和税收负担过多，而工资却在持续下跌。
在美国的一些地区，大量的住宅完全被遗弃，或只有一部分人能够完全占有。数以百万计的新抵押贷款人没有获得通过，只有极少数人可以得到贷款。
我们正在目睹系统性崩溃。
市政府和国家陷入支出和债务缠身的困境。据报道，美国50个州中的22个有严重的预算问题。加州是其中可怕的一个，密歇根州在技术上已经破产。
底特律将在2009年破产，并且还将有更多的意外发生。将有一连串的债券违约，其结果将淹没这些城市、州和县，导致他们借钱越来越多。
这些闪耀光线越快通过，我们从底部开始复苏也会越快。可悲的是，复苏进程将需要经年。
在股票市场被遗忘了多年之后，期货和商品交易商会持续获得稳定的利润。
2015年之前我们将看不到复苏的迹象。
原文：
Our 2009 Predictions
Roger Wiegand Dec 22 2008 1:23PM
"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.
In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009." -Traderrog
The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.
The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.
Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.
During the spring of next year we see:
(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.
Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.
Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?
Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.
The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.
The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.
Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.
Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.
Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.
The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.
*作者Roger Wiegand是Trade Tracks公司著名黄金分析师。
*另外，LEAP/E2020团队预警：2009年3月是金融危机急速恶化的转折点，2009年3月份，将与2008年9月的海啸一样严重，这次是全球大多数的养老金化为乌有。全世界到那时才会明白金融危机远比1930年代大萧条严重的多。LEAP/E2020团队预警：2009年夏全球货币体系垮塌，美元贬值90%
（LEAP/E2020团队是欧洲政治经济研究团队，自2007年以来对金融危机的研究和预警，大多数成为现实，其对时点有良好的预测。）
朱熔基的背影与中国大陆的前路(转载)
作者：面壁 提交日期：2002-3-16
北京全国人大会议收锣，大陆国务院总理朱镕基提出的第四份政府工作报告，再度被人大代表投之以信任的高票。明年三月，朱熔基还将作本届任内最后一份政府工作报告；但在今日召开的记者会中，朱镕基则是最后一次以总理的身分会见中外记者。四年前的第一次记者会，朱镕基曾表现出「一往无前、义无反顾」的姿态；但由今天起的未来一年，已正式进入中共政治交班年，朱镕基的内阁，也将正式成为看守内阁。此时此刻，遥看朱镕基步出人大会堂的背影，应可感应到中国大陆无可回头的前路。
朱熔基似乎早就预知他政治生命的时间表，尽管上任之初热情高涨，但一切宏图大举都以三年为期。在过去三年中，他首先从政治上推动政府机构改革，一举撤销九个工业部门，大幅裁减分流政府冗员，实现了机构裁撤二成以上、人员裁减近半的目标，最重要的是他保证了任内机构改革没有出现回潮。
在经济体制改革上，朱熔基首先推动国有企业三年脱困，虽然还有理论上的争议，但这个目标已经基本实现，并由提出国有股减持，将这项改革推到产权改革的背水地段；他提出的住房制度改革、医疗制度改革、农村税费制度改革，以及全局性的费改税，无一不触及到计画经济和社会管理体制的神经。这些改革有的已经成功，有的引起强烈的反弹，有的还在争议中蹒跚而行，但经济体制改革在朱镕基任内，已达到前所未有的深度和广度。
在宏观经济管理上，朱熔基在其五年副总理任内实施经济「宏观调控」的基础上，定下扩大和培育内需、促进经济较快增长的思路，发展出稳健的货币政策、积极的财政政策。到今天，大陆经济界对这些思路和政策仍有不同的意见，但过去四年大陆经济持续高速成长，去年更在全球经济衰退下显得一枝独秀，应当不是出自偶然。
朱熔基更备下棺材取得了令人瞩目三项进展，一是推动中国大陆结束艰辛的谈判，正式成为世界贸易组织成员，令大陆全面融入国际经济体系；二是推动禁止军队、武警和公安经商，令其改吃皇粮，局部消除了经济毒瘤；三是遏阻走私狂潮，亲自介入处置湛江走私大案、远华走私大案、潮汕骗税走私大案，不仅为病态经济痛施刀圭，也对污浊吏治全面刷清。随后，他又进而推行经济秩序的全面整治、监管和诚信制度的建立。
不过，朱熔基施政四年所逢的时运却相当不济，一上任就遇上亚洲金融风暴、国内的特大洪水，接下来又有炸馆风波和中美关系的紧张、「新经济」泡沫的破灭和全球性经济衰退；尽管如此，朱镕基「一往无前」的誓言已基本实现。
朱熔基是个性格鲜明的政治人物，当然有功也有过。他铁腕施政，事无巨细地介入，建立了强大的中央权威，却多多少少伤害了地方的积极性和利益。他以擅长的宏观调控引领中国大陆走出了重重危机，但其浓厚的计画经济意识形态，却也留下了未必有利于进一步发展的框框，更令部份改革错失良机。
今天的中国大陆，改革的大局已经描出，利益格局分配正在重新划定，与国际接轨的发展，从经济和政治上都已无可阻挡。 横竖中国皆没有回头的可能，这条路无论如何都要走下去。