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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Much Ado
This will be a relatively short post, simply because there's just not a heck of a lot going on the markets. Tons of stocks have basically "straight up" type patterns, and as great as that is for owners of those stocks, it doesn't make a lot of fodder for discussing trend changes or breakdowns.
I mentioned Carnival recently, and this one is behaving as expecting. Look at how "obedient" it was with respect to its trendline.
Capital One has been confounding me for a while, but this has pushed up high enough that it could represent both a press against resistance as well as a double top. Good short possibility.
Hansen (HANS) is fascinating to me since it's clinging to its Fib fan line like there's no tomorrow. I am not taking any position on this, but when it breaks away from this line, the move is going to be fast. 
NVR is relatively thinly traded, but past history seems to suggest it obeys its Fib retracements really well, so this might be a good short-term bearish play.
Do a search for "BankRate" in this blog, and you'll see I've mentioned it as a bullish play on many past occasions. It took another big leg up today on handsome volume.
at 2/06/2007 11 insightful comments 
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Monday, February 05, 2007
Charts - What Else?
The Dow was up a whopping .07% today, so it wasn't exactly a barnburner of a day on the market. But there's always a few charts to look at, right?
Anderson (ANDE), one of the few bullish charts I've been posting lately, continues to inch toward its potential breakout point (the horizontal line I've drawn).
I'm seeing a lot of big oil stocks shaping up as potential shorts; BHI looks particularly good.
EMC has been in a trading range for literally years. It seems to be at the upper end of it. This makes for a relatively low-risk bearish play.
I've been mentioning SHLD for quite a while, but I've got to hand it to the bulls, this has pushed above resistance. It's a really sharp looking cup with handle pattern. The big bursts of volume have definitely been dying down (see trendline on the volume chart), but that isn't particularly significant.
I was (very profitably) short the NZD/USD, and now I'm in a contratrend position - - I'm long for the moment, but definitely not for the long haul. Nothing ever goes straight down, and this fell so quickly and sharply I am looking for a very modest rise before re-entering the short.
I have no position on NutriSystem (NTRI), but I'm presenting this graph simply as a suggestion that it might be OK for a short-term bullish play. It may recover back to its neckline (where it fell to pieces in a matter of 3 days). This is a relatively high risk trade, however. Plenty of stocks that are "broken" like this really never recover.
I don't know what MSFT is doing (although my puts on it happily rose). Maybe Vista is getting a "so what?" from enough places that expectations are dying down. I, for one, have no reason to upgrade.
Google (GOOG) keeps heading lower. The problem with puts on this (which I own) is that there is so much volatility built into them that even after losing 30 points, the puts are only up a little.
at 2/05/2007 5 insightful comments Links to this post
Friday, February 02, 2007
Yep
Thus ends another week. Now c'mon, folks, throw me a bone here - - I mentioned CRR just a few days ago as a bullish play ("For a bullish play, CRR looks like it is beginning to turn northward after a long slide.") and it climbed 40% in just a few days. That isn't bad, and it shows this isn't just an all-bears blog.
The Gold and Silver index is looking like a potential short.
Although the Transports broke above their descending trendline, the shooting star candlestick today is a little encouraging. The markets are sky high and simply seem able to propel higher each week.
The $OEX (S&P 100) is matching a recent high. This means either a double top or, with more strength next week, more kudos for the bulls.
I like the Morgan Stanley Tech Index ($MSH) as a place to buy puts. It's pretty risky, and the puts aren't that thickly traded, but the potential for a big reward is there.
The Dow 30 lost a little ground today, and it remains clearly beneath its broken trendline.
Check out NVR versus the Fibonacci retracement. I'd say it's ready to turn tail.
China has been going absolutely hyperbolic in equities. GCH is a short play on this. But what's more fascinating to me is how well it has played against its own Fibonacci lines. I've highlighted the "bounce points."
Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) looks like another relatively low-risk place to buy puts.
I sold my Cummins (CMI) puts at a profit a while back. The stock has recovered since then, and it's so close to a double top at this point that I'm ready to leap in again.
Good weekend to one and all.........
at 2/02/2007 9 insightful comments Links to this post