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Friday, June 29, 2007
The JesusPhone Arrives
Today must be Steve Jobs Day, since both theiPhone andRatatouille make their introductions. That can't be an accident.
I've never done this before, but here's a Slope of Hope Original Video for you that I just put together. Enjoy:
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at6/29/200719 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:iphone,palo alto,steve jobs
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Once More into the Breach
Well, I'm glad we got that bit of business out of the way!
The stock market did its usual spastic freak-out the moment theFederal Reserve Statement was issued. First it lurched down. And then up, big time. And then down again. And it spent the rest of the day generally heading south. It wasn't a plunge, by any stretch, but it certainly nuked a very healthy rise in equities into oblivion.

Looking at the candlestick chart of the IWM (which is the ETF for the Russell 2000), you can see a picture-perfect shooting star. My feeling is that tomorrow will be a down day, and we can get back to the business of shorting this market.

Colgate (CL) is a relatively stable/"no surprises" stock that might be worth acquiring puts against.

Coventry Health (CVH) appears to have failed to break out of a normally bullish pattern, which is bearish. I'm short the stock.

I've mentioned Jet Blue (JBLU) for the bulls out there. I stand by this position. Maybe this former high-flier is getting its act together after many embarrassing fumbles.

I bought puts on MCK today based on a small head and shoulders pattern plus a falling-away from a Fibonacci fan.

Oils are looking pretty good for put/short opportunities too. I bought puts on OXY just before today's close.

Same story with Southern Copper (PCU).

Potash puts are fairly heavily traded, thus the bid/ask spread isn't atrocious. I picked up some of these today (as with all the other trades, well after the Fed craziness).

...and the same for Schlumberger (SLB).

.....and Exxon (XOM).

I stopped trading Research in Motion (RIMM) ages ago, since the stock is just too weird for me to understand. Congratulations to those long the stock (and, even moreso, long the calls). RIMM had oh-my-God earnings after the close today and, last time I checked, was up 12%. Poor oldFred Hickey can't seem to live this one down.
at6/28/200749 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:clf,cvh,iwm,jblu,mck,oxy,pcu,pot,slb,xom
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Lying in Wait
If you readyesterday's post, today's action would have come as no surprise at all. Luckily, I sold my puts promptly shortly after the opening this morning. I wasn't slick enough to buy calls - and shame on me for not doing so - but I'm at least glad to have exited. In the meantime, here's a live Webcam of me waiting for the push upward to exhaust itself.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - a widely respected organization - recentlyissued a report citing the distinct possibility of not just a recession, but a worldwide economic depression. Here's a snippet from an article about the report:
The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.
This isn't some weird crackpot organization (or a crackpot blog writer). This is a fairly sober group of individuals. Take note.
The $VIX, as expected, absolutely plunged today. I'm not sure - no one is - what the market's reaction to tomorrow's forthcoming GDP report and Fed Announcement is going to be - - but it's possible that all the excess in the $VIX got squeezed out today. For myself, I think I'm going to keep most of the powder dry until well after the Fed announcement, which always throws the market into a bizarre spasm.

I've tried to emphasize in the chart below the pivot points of the Russell 2000. Just to be clear, the fact that today's is circled doesn't necessarily mean I think the buying is over. But it's a help visual aid in any case.

As you probably know by now, the Russell is my favorite index for option purchases. It was especially strong today. At this point, I'd say 840.02 is a good stop-loss level.

The S&P 500 also had a good day for the bulls. I've drawn the downward-sloping pennant that I believe is confining the market action these days.

Now it just wouldn't feel right if I didn't offer my JCP chart of the day. One reader commented I should get out of those puts. Well, earlier today, I did. I don't think the fall has exhausted itself, but I'd rather take profits now and re-enter the puts after a retracement. If this stock pushes its way back to the neckline, I'm going in big-time again.

I'm long Micron (MU) now. It won't be a long-term hold, I don't think. But this is a nice little bullish chart for now.

Let's enjoy a little George. See you tomorrow.
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at6/27/200728 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:$vix,jcp,mu
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