中国股市：虎年“类犬”Short view

For China it is the year of the tiger. For its equity market, it has been a dog. Even as the economy grew strongly, pushing commodities to new highs, the Shanghai Composite index tumbled 11.4 per cent.

今年是中国农历的虎年，可中国股市的表现却有些“类犬”。尽管经济增长强劲，把大宗商品价格推至新高，上证综指却累计下跌了11.4%。

Capital controls make it hard for foreign investors to access the domestic A-share market. Fund managers tap political connections to win the coveted right to trade A-shares. Yet, this year has been better for those who could not get in.

由于资本管制，外国投资者很难进入中国A股市场。基金经理们动用政治关系，以获得让人眼红的买卖A股资格。不过，就今年而言，那些不得其门而入的人，日子反而更好过些。

The A-shares with dual Hong Kong listings are down 16 per cent for the year, according to the Hang Seng A/H index; H-shares are up about 1 per cent.

根据恒生A/H指数，同时在香港上市的A股今年的跌幅为16%；H股则上涨了1%左右。

There are two ways to see this. The first is to observe that China is like all emerging markets, only more so: insiders have privileged knowledge of policy, so the A-shares better represent the likely economic outcome. If they are cautious, foreigners should be too.

这件事可以从两方面来看。首先应当注意到，中国和所有新兴市场一样，甚至有过之而无不及：内部人士掌握一般人接触不到的政策信息，所以A股更能代表可能的经济走势。如果他们都心态谨慎，那么老外就更应该小心为是。

The second is to observe that foreigners are so desperate to get into China that they are willing to pay more than shares are worth. This is hard to dispute. Exchange-traded funds tracking A-share indices trade at a big premium; the Hong Kong-based iShares FTSE A50 fund is almost 10 per cent above the FTSE A50 index.

其次是要注意到，由于太想进入中国股市，所以外国人甘愿支付高于实际价值的股价。这是一个不争的事实。追踪A股指数的交易所交易基金(ETF)就有着不菲的溢价，比如香港的“安硕富时A50“基金(iShares FTSE A5)，就比富时A50指数溢价近10%。

Yet it is difficult to argue that A-shares better discount the future. The Shanghai Composite is down by half from its peak in 2007, a year when equities doubled – before giving back all their gains, and then some, in 2008.

但是，很难说A股对未来的折现更合理。目前上证综指比2007年的峰值水平下跌了一半。那一年中国股市涨了一倍，可随后一年就把涨幅尽数奉还，还倒贴了一些。

Shares are inherently hard to value, Chinese shares doubly so. A-shares are prone to speculative surges from Chinese investors, who have few other places to stash cash. H-shares are prone to surges from international investors driven by a desire to own the biggest emerging market, at (almost) any price.

股票本就难以估值，中国股票更是难上加难。A股很容易在投资渠道匮乏的国内投资者推动下，出现投机性暴涨。H股则容易在国际投资者的推波助澜下大涨——这些国际投资者（近乎）不惜代价地希望在全球最大的新兴市场分得一杯羹。

Even if inflation can be brought under control without endangering growth, the direction of both A- and H-shares in 2011 depends more on sentiment than fundamentals. Whichever way they go, that means the ride will be bumpy.

即使通胀能够在不危及增长的情况下得到控制，无论A股还是H股，2011年的走向都将更多地取决于市场人气、而非基本面因素。这意味着，不管走向何方，道路都不会平坦。