Big Shakeup in 1H07 Top Semiconductor Supplier Ranking

Qualcomm surges while Freescale tumbles; DRAM price collapse slams some 2Q results
IC Insights‘ August update to The McClean Report will describe the big shakeup in the 1H07 top 20 semiconductor supplier ranking (Figure 1). As shown, although the top three ranks remained unchanged, there was a great deal of movement up and down the remainder of the list in 1H07 as compared to the full-year 2006 rankings. Highlights of some of the changes that took place in 1H07 are shown below:
Freescale is feeling the pain of its biggest customer, Motorola, as the company went from being ranked the 9th largest semiconductor supplier in the world in 2006 to 16th in 1H07. Unfortunately for Freescale, Motorola has gone from holding a 23% share of cellular phone unit shipments in 2Q06 (51.9 million) to securing only a 14% share in 2Q07 (35.5 million).
Qualcomm gained four positions in 1H07, surging from being ranked 17th in 2006 to 13th in 1H07. Moreover, the company was only $17 million behind 12th-ranked Infineon. In fact, Qualcomm is on pace to register a full-year 2007/2006 semiconductor sales increase of 25%! However, a big question mark for the company going into the second half of 2007 is its legal issues with Broadcom.
With steady, if unspectacular, performance, NXP moved into the top 10 ranking in 1H07 after being ranked 11th in 2006.
Spurred by increasing internal transfers for its PS3 game machines, Sony moved up one spot in the top 10 ranking and currently resides in 9th place.
Although dropping two positions in the ranking, AMD displayed a nice recovery in 2Q07 with its sales increasing 12% over 1Q07. As part of its continuing MPU marketshare battle with Intel, AMD is expected to announce a major manufacturing/foundry deal in the second half of 2007.
The DRAM price collapse and competitive flash memory market in 1H07 are evident in the extremely poor second quarter results of many of the major memory suppliers. As shown, Toshiba, Hynix, Qimonda, and Elpida were especially hard hit, each registering a 2Q07/1Q07 sales drop of greater than 20%! However, all of these companies are expecting a rebound in their sales in the second half of the year, with Toshiba planning on a 20%+ increase in its sales in 3Q07.
In spite of 2Q07 DRAM pricing weakness, Hynix moved from 7th to 6th place in the ranking.
Another big DRAM supplier, Elpida, gained four positions in the ranking, rising from being ranked 23rd in 2006 to 19th in 1H07.
Although the largest pure-play foundry in the world, TSMC, dropped one spot in the 1H07 ranking, the company recorded the best 2Q07/1Q07 sales increase (17%) of the top 20 suppliers and raised its capacity utilization rate to over 94% in 2Q07 (up from 83% in 1Q07). Moreover, TSMC expects a 15% sequential increase in sales in 3Q07.
IC Insights expects to see pricing stability return to the DRAM and flash memory markets in the second half of 2007, surging IC demand for high-end cellular phones, and a noticeable seasonal rebound in overall IC demand beginning in September. Together, these three factors, in addition to the very tight grouping of the six companies ranked from 12-16 (where there was only a $38 million difference in sales between all five in 1H07), are likely to cause significant changes in the top 20 semiconductor ranking in the second half of 2007.

Figure 1

Analog IC Market to Grow 15% in 2008 After Slipping 2% in 2007
Inventory corrections contribute to rare decline in application-specific analog segment
After five consecutive years of growth, the analog IC market has temporarily lost its momentum in 2007 and is now expected to decline for the first time since the 2001 semiconductor recession. IC Insights‘ mid-year forecast shows analog integrated circuit sales slipping 2% to $36.2 billion in 2007 from $36.9 billion in 2006, when the market increased nearly 16%.
The slump will be brief, however. Analog integrated circuit sales are expected to rebound in 2008 with a 15% increase, which will push the market to a record-high $41.7 billion next year, according to IC Insights‘ 2007 Mid-Year Update report. Analog IC unit volumes are also forecast to hit record-high levels in 2008 with worldwide device shipments reaching 81.8 billion, up 13% from a projected 72.5 million units in 2007. Analog IC unit growth has slowed dramatically in 2007 with device shipments expected to rise just 4% compared to an annual average increase of 16% per year during the 2002-2006 timeframe. Analog units will account for about 49% of all ICs shipped in 2007, compared to 51% in 2006 and 50% in 2005.
Inventory corrections in portable electronic products—especially cellular phones—and price erosion have negatively impacted a number of key analog market segments that rarely see down years. For example, the application-specific analog IC segment is forecast to decline 6% in 2007 to $22.1 billion. In the 2002-2006 period, application-specific analog sales increased at a cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) of 11% per year.
In the application-specific analog market, only the automotive and wired telecom segments are expected to grow in 2007 (up 24% and 5%, respectively), while declines are forecasted for wireless (-16%), industrial (-12%), consumer (-9%), and computer (-6%) device categories. In 2007, application-specific analog devices will account for about 61% of total analog IC sales, according to IC Insights‘ projections (Figure 1).

Figure 1
Meanwhile, standard analog IC sales are expected to grow just 4% to $14.0 billion in 2007, after increasing at an annual average of 8% per year in the 2002-2006 period. In the standard analog segment, revenues for comparators are expected to drop 7% while voltage regulators and reference devices are forecast to decline 2%. The forecast shows sales growth in 2007 for data conversion devices (+19%), amplifiers (+7%), and interface ICs (+9%).
During the 2007-2011 forecast period, total analog IC revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% per year, reaching $49.9 billion in 2011, according to IC Insights‘ Mid-Year Update report. Standard analog IC sales are forecast to reach $18.2 billion in 2011, while application-specific analog revenues will total $31.7 billion that same year.
Report Details
IC Insights‘ 2007 Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report is a 190-page updated market forecast report on the IC industry. It features analysis of all major integrated circuit market segments and global economic trends as well as revised projections on semiconductor capital spending and forecasts on IC product revenues, unit volumes, and ASPs through 2011. For those not currently subscribing to The McClean Report, the Mid-Year Update is available for purchase for $1,490. Additional copies are priced at $395.
For more information, please visitwww.icinsights.com/prodsrvs/mcclean/.
More Information Contact
For more information, contact: Brian Matas, Vice President of IC Insights, phone: +1-480-348-1133, e-mail: bmatas@icinsights.com.
About IC Insights
IC Insights, Inc., based in Scottsdale, Arizona, is dedicated to providing high-quality, cost-effective market research for the semiconductor industry. Founded in 1997, IC Insights offers coverage of global economic trends, semiconductor market forecasts, capital spending and fab capacity trends, product market details, and technology trends, as well as complete IC company profiles and evaluations of end-use applications driving demand for ICs. For more information, contact +1-480-348-1133 or info@icinsights.com, or visitwww.icinsights.com.
2007 Microcomponent Forecast: Microprocessors Recover;
MCUs Hit Record Sales; DSPs Struggle
IC Insights‘ Mid-Year Update underscores dichotomy within microcomponent segment
The microcomponents segment of the IC industry has become a mixed bag of market conditions for microprocessors, microcontrollers, and digital signal processors in 2007. New analysis in IC Insights‘ Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2007 breaks down the $56 billion microcomponents market segment (Figure 1) this way:
Microprocessors will see a modest recovery in 2007 after pricing competition eroded MPU revenues in 2006 and the first half of this year. Thanks to solid demand for personal computers in 2007, microprocessor sales are now expected to increase 4% to $34.5 billion compared to $33.2 billion in 2006, when MPU dollar volume fell 5% (Figure 2). In 2008, microprocessor sales are forecast to grow 17% to $40.3 billion during the industry‘s next cyclical peak growth year, according to IC Insights‘ Mid-Year Update.
Microcontrollers will achieve new record-high sales in 2007 with MCU unit volume shipments surging 21% this year. Worldwide microcontroller revenues are forecast to reach the $14.0 billion mark in 2007, a 13% increase from $12.4 billion in 2006. In 2008, MCU sales are expected to rise another 13% to nearly $15.8 billion, based on IC Insights‘ mid-year forecast.
Digital signal processors remain bogged down in another difficult year. DSP sales are expected to decline 5% in 2007 due to inventory corrections in cell-phone equipment markets. In 2006, DSP sales rebounded with a 9% increase after dropping 2% in 2005. DSP dollar volume is now expected to total $7.9 billion in 2007 compared to $8.3 billion in 2006. DSP unit volume remains relatively weak in 2007, with device shipments expected to grow 9% this year compared to an average annual growth rate of 18% between 2001 and 2006. In 2008, the DSP market is forecast to recover and display a 13% increase to $8.9 billion, according to IC Insights‘ new report.
The microcomponents market accounts for about one quarter of worldwide IC sales. IC Insights‘ forecast shows total sales in the microcomponents segment growing at a cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) of 9% per year between 2006 and 2011. Combined MPU/MCU/DSP sales are expected to reach $84.5 billion in 2011 compared to $56.4 billion in 2007.

Figure 1

Figure 2
Report Details
IC Insights‘ 2007 Mid-Year Update is provided free of charge to subscribers of The McClean Report, a comprehensive annual forecast for the IC industry. In a special offer, IC Insights is now making available stand-alone copies of the 2007 Mid-Year Update at a price of $1,490 for the initial copy and $395 for additional copies. IC Insights‘ 190-page Mid-Year Update contains analysis of all major integrated circuit market segments and global economic trends as well as updated projections on semiconductor capital spending and forecasts on IC product revenues, unit volumes, and ASPs through 2011.
The McClean Report—the complete annual forecast package with monthly updates and the Mid-Year Update—is priced at $2,590 for a single copy in CD-ROM or three-ring binder format. A bundled CD-binder set is priced at $3,085. An Internet access password is available as a $695 option. The report is also available under a multi-user corporate license for $5,890.
2007年第一季台湾电子零组件产值分析
(2007-06-19)
来源：中国PCB技术网
2007年第一季台湾电子零组件海内外产值为新台币1,638亿元，较2006年同期成长11%。在两岸分工部分，台湾生产比重为达48%。
就个别产业分析，化合物半导体组件产值新台币121亿元，较去年同期成长12%；被动组件产值新台币291亿元，较去年同期成长3%，印刷电路板产值新台币793亿元，较去年同期成长5%，接续组件产值约新台币284亿元，较去年同期成长14%，能源组件产值新台币149亿元，较去年同期成长93%。以下分别就各组件之产销情形予以说明。
2007年第一季台湾电子零组件产值分析
◇化合物半导体组件：
2007年第一季日亚化学大幅调降白光LED售价，以致于LED在10吋以下显示器市场渗透率大幅度成长，带动LED市场需求成长。台湾厂商未求扩大市场规模，同步采取降价行为，使得第一季台湾化合物半导体产值达新台币120亿元，较去年同期成长12%。不过因产品单价大幅滑落，LED厂商毛利也受到负面影响。
◇被动组件：
PC、NB等相关产品，出货量稳定上升，但主要仍以高容MLCC等特殊规格品，为主要受惠者。在大宗品在价格走弱的状况下，台湾被动组件整体产值达新台币291亿元，较去年同期成长3%。另外，蓝芽、GPS的需求上扬，受惠者主要为振荡器。
◇印刷电路板：
第一季在手机及PC用硬板为传统淡季，各家厂商均进行库存调整，市场需求成长迟缓，不过在消费性电子产品需求成长，使得我国2007年第一季PCB硬板产值达到新台币520.9亿，较去年同期成长7%。另外国际铜价相对去年同期低，带动铜箔基板跌价，也使PCB厂商具有更大价格竞争力。
2007第一季软板产业受到手机市场成长趋缓，及LCD用软板价格下滑影响，整体产值仅较2006年同期成长1%，达新台币93.7亿元。IC载板市场仍呈现出供过于求的现况，再加上厂商也处于产品线及库存调整中，以致于整体产值仅较2006年同期成长2%，达新台币178.2亿元。
◇接续组件：
第一季为连接器传统淡季，但2007年第一季受惠于NB、游戏机及LCDTV市场需求成长，带动连接器市场成长，整体产值达新台币283亿元，较2006年同期成长14%，呈现淡季不淡的现象。
◇能源组件：
2007年第一季台湾二次电池组产值达新台币127亿元，较2006同期成长114%。主要是因受到NB、手机为主的下游应用市场需求成长，及厂商扩厂效应带动所致。另在二次电池部分，2007第一季产值达新台币22.4亿元，较2006同期成长25%，主要成长动力来自于电动代步车、CableModen、PowerTools等应用市场销售成长所致。
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