神马文学网朝鲜半岛的焦虑
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/30 08:32:42
朝鲜半岛的焦虑Korea anxiety
Kim Jong-il inspires pity as much as dread. China sent fans on North Korea’s behalf to the football World Cup; Robert Mugabe favoured the hermit kingdom with a “Noah’s ark” of Zimbabwean wildlife. Yet the recent escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula is causing real damage, and not just to Pyongyang.
金正日(Kim Jong-il)让人产生的怜悯，与他激发的恐惧一样多。中国曾派出球迷，去南非世界杯支持朝鲜队；罗伯特•穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)曾向这个封闭的王国送去津巴布韦野生动物的“诺亚方舟”（载着这些动物飞往朝鲜的飞机就像现代版“诺亚方舟”——译者注）。然而，朝鲜半岛近期紧张态势的升级，造成的损害是真实重大的，而且不仅仅是对于平壤。
The North is surely hurting. Since Seoul cut off virtually all non-humanitarian trade in May, in retaliation for the sinking of the Cheonan, life in the hardscrabble economy has almost certainly grown harder. Aerial photos of plumeless smokestacks suggest factories lie idle. Inter-Korean trade amounted to $1.7bn last year, just 0.2 per cent of the South’s total, but a third of the North’s. Recent efforts to make debt repayments to the Czech Republic in ginseng betray a chronic shortage of hard currency.
朝鲜无疑正在受损。自5月份首尔中断了几乎所有非人道主义贸易，以报复“天安舰”沉没事件以来，本已极度贫困的朝鲜人的生活，几乎肯定变得越发艰难了。航拍照片里没有冒烟的烟囱，显示出工厂都在闲置。去年，南北朝鲜间贸易额为17亿美元，仅仅是韩国贸易总额的0.2%，但却是朝鲜贸易总额的三分之一。朝鲜最近试图用高丽参向捷克还债的举动，暴露出了该国硬通货的长期匮乏。
The South is suffering too. Last year markets barely blinked after the North’s weapons tests; this year, the won is trumped only by the Vietnamese dong as the region’s worst-performing currency. At just nine times next year’s earnings, the Kospi is cheaper than all other Asian stock market benchmarks bar Pakistan. Net flows into equities this year are running below last year’s rate. Yet president Lee Myung-bak is in no mood to waver, having distanced himself from previous regimes’ “sunshine policy” of paternalistic appeasement. Disarm, then we talk.
韩国也正在受损。去年，朝鲜核武试验后，韩国金融市场几乎连眼睛也没扎一下；今年，韩元的表现仅比亚洲表现最糟糕的货币——越南盾稍微好些。以明年的预期盈利为基础进行计算，韩国综合指数(Kospi)的市盈率仅为9倍，比除巴基斯坦以外的所有其它亚洲股市基准股指都要便宜。今年股市的净流入资金也比去年要低。但总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)却丝毫没有动摇的意思——这位总统已经与前几任政权家长式姑息主义的“阳光政策”决裂。朝鲜必须先裁军，然后才能坐下来谈判。
Mr Kim made a surprise and typically covert visit to China last week, accompanied by his third son and likely successor, Jong-un. Perhaps the pain of sanctions is leading him back to multilateral talks on disarmament, last convened almost two years ago. If so, great. Whether Seoul’s policy is officially sunshine or sunset, both nations could use a break in the clouds.
上周金正日做出一个出人意料之举，对中国来了一次典型的秘密访问。同行的还有他的第三个儿子、很可能继任他的金正云(Kim Jong-un)。或许，制裁带来的痛苦正推动金正日重回裁军的多边谈判——上一轮谈判已是近两年前。如果真是如此，很好。不管首尔的官方政策是“阳光” 还是“落日”，两个国家都可以利用云层中间的那一丝空隙。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
Kim Jong-il inspires pity as much as dread. China sent fans on North Korea’s behalf to the football World Cup; Robert Mugabe favoured the hermit kingdom with a “Noah’s ark” of Zimbabwean wildlife. Yet the recent escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula is causing real damage, and not just to Pyongyang.
金正日(Kim Jong-il)让人产生的怜悯，与他激发的恐惧一样多。中国曾派出球迷，去南非世界杯支持朝鲜队；罗伯特•穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)曾向这个封闭的王国送去津巴布韦野生动物的“诺亚方舟”（载着这些动物飞往朝鲜的飞机就像现代版“诺亚方舟”——译者注）。然而，朝鲜半岛近期紧张态势的升级，造成的损害是真实重大的，而且不仅仅是对于平壤。
The North is surely hurting. Since Seoul cut off virtually all non-humanitarian trade in May, in retaliation for the sinking of the Cheonan, life in the hardscrabble economy has almost certainly grown harder. Aerial photos of plumeless smokestacks suggest factories lie idle. Inter-Korean trade amounted to $1.7bn last year, just 0.2 per cent of the South’s total, but a third of the North’s. Recent efforts to make debt repayments to the Czech Republic in ginseng betray a chronic shortage of hard currency.
朝鲜无疑正在受损。自5月份首尔中断了几乎所有非人道主义贸易，以报复“天安舰”沉没事件以来，本已极度贫困的朝鲜人的生活，几乎肯定变得越发艰难了。航拍照片里没有冒烟的烟囱，显示出工厂都在闲置。去年，南北朝鲜间贸易额为17亿美元，仅仅是韩国贸易总额的0.2%，但却是朝鲜贸易总额的三分之一。朝鲜最近试图用高丽参向捷克还债的举动，暴露出了该国硬通货的长期匮乏。
The South is suffering too. Last year markets barely blinked after the North’s weapons tests; this year, the won is trumped only by the Vietnamese dong as the region’s worst-performing currency. At just nine times next year’s earnings, the Kospi is cheaper than all other Asian stock market benchmarks bar Pakistan. Net flows into equities this year are running below last year’s rate. Yet president Lee Myung-bak is in no mood to waver, having distanced himself from previous regimes’ “sunshine policy” of paternalistic appeasement. Disarm, then we talk.
韩国也正在受损。去年，朝鲜核武试验后，韩国金融市场几乎连眼睛也没扎一下；今年，韩元的表现仅比亚洲表现最糟糕的货币——越南盾稍微好些。以明年的预期盈利为基础进行计算，韩国综合指数(Kospi)的市盈率仅为9倍，比除巴基斯坦以外的所有其它亚洲股市基准股指都要便宜。今年股市的净流入资金也比去年要低。但总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)却丝毫没有动摇的意思——这位总统已经与前几任政权家长式姑息主义的“阳光政策”决裂。朝鲜必须先裁军，然后才能坐下来谈判。
Mr Kim made a surprise and typically covert visit to China last week, accompanied by his third son and likely successor, Jong-un. Perhaps the pain of sanctions is leading him back to multilateral talks on disarmament, last convened almost two years ago. If so, great. Whether Seoul’s policy is officially sunshine or sunset, both nations could use a break in the clouds.
上周金正日做出一个出人意料之举，对中国来了一次典型的秘密访问。同行的还有他的第三个儿子、很可能继任他的金正云(Kim Jong-un)。或许，制裁带来的痛苦正推动金正日重回裁军的多边谈判——上一轮谈判已是近两年前。如果真是如此，很好。不管首尔的官方政策是“阳光” 还是“落日”，两个国家都可以利用云层中间的那一丝空隙。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析