神马文学网道琼斯专家发出最严厉的警告:道琼斯指数很危险
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/27 22:32:19
转贴 2010-05-20 17:33:38
tigergoo评论：国际货币体系重构已经是图穷匕见，同志们如果不相信，可以等到年底验证。道琼斯千点跳水，极为蹊跷，绝对不是传闻说的那么单纯。
Richard Russell发出了迄今为止最严厉的警告：留存现金和黄金，卖出一切。
刘军洛兄对美元的预测很准，以秦统一六国的比喻来解释也贴切，但用传统视角看待黄金和美元的关系，是致命的。用刘兄的话说，应该这么说：“美元（与黄金）是不是会（同时）走出让全世界人与全体中国人都一辈子也看不懂的宏大行情呢！”
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year Joe Weisenthal | May. 18, 2010, 8:57 AM
Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note:
Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.
That's pretty intense!
Update: By popular demand, here's more on what he sees in the market. The gist is that the markets recent gyrations are telling him that the economy is in trouble:
And I ask myself, "Am I seeing things? The April 26 high for the Dow
was 11205.03. The Dow is selling as write at 10557 down 648 points
from its April high. If business is even better than expected, then
why is the Dow down over 600 points? And why, if there were 674 new
highs on the NYSE on April 26, were there only 20 new highs on Friday,
May 14? And if my PTI was 6133 on April 26, why is it down 17 points
since its April high?
The fact is that I've been seeing deterioration in the stock market
ever since early-April, and this in the face of improving business
news. The D-J Industrial Average is composed of 30 internationally
known top-quality blue-chip stocks. These are 30 of "America's biggest
companies." If Barron's is so bullish on the future of America's
biggest companies, then why isn't the Dow advancing to new highs?
Clearly something is wrong. But what could it be? Much as I love
Barron's, I trust the stock market more. If I read the stock market
correctly, it's telling me that there is a surprise ahead. And that
surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a
collection of other troubles ahead.
About Dow Theory -- First, we saw the recent April highs in the
Averages. Then we saw a plunge in both Averages to their May 7 lows --
Industrials to 10380.43, Transports to 4298.12, next a short rally. If
ahead, the two Averages turn down and violate their May 7 lows, that
would be the clincher. Such action would signal the certain resumption
of the primary bear market.
Just as for years I asked, cajoled, insisted, threatened, demanded,
that my subscribers buy gold, I am now insisting, demanding, begging
my subscribers to get OUT of stocks (including C and BYD, but not
including golds) and get into cash or gold (bullion if possible). If
the two Averages violate their May 7 lows, I see a major crash as the
outcome. Pul - leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don't give a damn
whether you have paper losses or paper profits!
道氏理论大师：道指破7日低点将出现大崩盘
2010年05月21日 00:30 新浪财经
新浪财经讯 道氏理论(DOW Theory)大师、《道氏理论通讯》(DOW Theory Letters)编辑理查德·罗素(Richard Russell)最近强烈建议投资者彻底退出股市，他认为，如果道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数双双跌破5月7日低点，股市将出现大崩盘(Major Crash)。
他在最近的投资报告中说到：
“帮你的朋友们一个忙。告诉他们，暴雨即将来临，赶快把船舱封起来。告诉他们，卖出所有能够卖出的东西，换取流动性。告诉他们，理查德·罗素说，到今年年底之时他们将认不出这个国家来。他们也许会反驳：‘罗素怎么可能知道？谁告诉他的？’告诉他们，是股市告诉我的。”
他进一步分析道：
“如果我对股市作出了正确的解读，那么它告诉我接下来将会有大事发生。这一大事将是经济重新探底，以及其他各种各样的麻烦。从道氏理论来看，我们先是看到道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数4月份屡创新高，然后两大指数5月7日分别暴跌至10380.43点和4298.12点(收盘点位)。如果未来两大指数击穿5月7日低点，这样的走势将确定无疑地意味着股市重新转入熊市。”
罗素建议其投资通讯的订户退出所有股票头寸，转为持有现金和黄金(1181.40,-11.70,-0.98%)(最好是实物黄金)。
全球流动性枯竭，股市危险[转贴 2010-05-22 20:26:04] Dow in Danger!
By my count, this is at least our SIXTH clear, unambiguous warning of danger in the Dow — sent to you in just the last 60 days!
On March 27, Mike Burnick warned you — right here in Money and Markets — that the big stock market rally of 2009-2010 “could come to a crashing end at any time.”
Also here in Money and Markets, Claus Vogt told you The Stock Market Is Starting to Look Toppy on April 21 … issued A Clear Warning Sign — Global Liquidity Is Drying Up one week later … and then, just in case you missed the first two, told you AGAIN that A Topping Formation Is Taking Shape on May 12.
On the same day, Larry Edelson, Mike Larson, and I held an emergency briefing online, with our FIFTH warning: “A good rule of thumb,” Mike said, “is to sell half of your excess holdings now and then revisit the balance when you get a good rally.” But … “even when you get the rally, it is very easy to forget the crisis. Things may appear to have quieted down, but it’s really going to be just the next calm before an even bigger storm that is coming.” (See transcript in Sovereign Debt Crisis: Emergency Strategy Update.)
Now, here’s our 6th warning …
The Dow’s 1000-point “flash crash” of two weeks ago was NOT a fluke! Nor is today’s 376-point slide in the Dow!
These events are lightning bolts that strike deep into the market’s core … and that help light up the path ahead for anyone willing to look.
In his flash alert to Safe Money readers earlier today, Mike Larson explains it this way:
“Some of the latest economic data has shown a cooling in global demand and a loss of investor confidence. Many early warning signs of credit stress are also flashing yellow. Volatility indices are on the rise … financial institutions are charging each other more to borrow money in the interbank market … and interest rate swap spreads are blowing out in the derivatives arena.
“These are the same kinds of indicators we saw go nuts before the 2008 crash. We’re still nowhere near the widespread panic levels we reached back then, but the trend is what matters and it’s very unsettling.”
These signals all confirm what we’ve been telling you for the last 60 days:
1. The great rally since March of 2009 is — or will soon be — over.
2. Despite its impressive duration and magnitude, that rally was little more than a temporary interlude — an intermission between two phases of a greater bear market.
3. The first phase came in the wake of the great Housing and Debt Crisis of 2008-2009, wiping out as much as HALF of America’s stock values.
4. The second phase has struck with the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010, and it’s just now getting under way.
Bottom line: If you have followed our recommendations to …
- stay away from vulnerable U.S. stocks …
- hold plenty of cash …
- use intermediate rallies to reduce your exposure even further and …
- hedge your remaining portfolio with inverse ETFs …
Then, you’re in good shape!
If not, what are you waiting for? How many more warnings must we issue? Please don’t delay. Move swiftly to get your money to safety.
A Clear Warning Sign: Global Liquidity Is Drying Up!
In last week’s Money and Markets column I told you the majority of my indicators are signaling that the stock market has probably entered the last phase of its medium-term uptrend, which began in March 2009.
I went over price-to-earnings ratios (based on twelve-months trailing GAAP earnings) and dividend yields. Both metrics are showing a heavily overvalued market.
Today I want to add that “normalized earnings,” which try to even out the impact of the ups and downs in the business cycle, are strongly supporting this message.
Plus, I’d like to give you updates on what I discussed last week and tell you about one more important signal …
Sentiment Indicators Still Euphoric
I reported that mutual fund cash level was an excessively low 3.5 percent in February. Now the March figure is in, and it’s the same as February’s! The only other time we’ve seen fund managers holding such a low level of cash was in the summer of 2007, a short three months before a major stock market high.
Next, I want to give you the latest readings of Investors Intelligence Advisory Sentiment …
The bullish contingent stands at 53.3 percent, up from 51.1 percent just a week ago. Whereas bearish advisors are down to a very low 17.4 percent, well below the 20 percent threshold typically indicating at least short-term danger for the stock market.
Even more bothersome is the most recent ratio of bullish to bearish financial newsletters, currently at 3.06, as shown in the second panel of the chart below. Last week it was 2.7.
This tells us that the short-to medium-term upside potential is very limited.
Source: www.decisionpoint.com
Then I discussed how equity put-call ratios had fallen to levels not seen since 2000, the year of the famous NASDAQ top, when the dot com bubble burst.
Well, as you can see in the second panel of the following chart this ratio is still hovering around that extremely low level. The 10-day average is currently at 0.46, up a meager 0.01 from last week. And the 10-day average of the total CBOE put-call ratio, the third panel of the chart, is still a very low 0.77. Last week’s small market correction did nothing to dampen option speculators’ willingness to bet on further rising stock prices.
Source: www.decisionpoint.com
What’s more …
Liquidity Has Dried Up Globally
There still seems to be a lot of talking about the huge liquidity driving this market higher. And yes, the Fed’s answer to the housing and banking crisis was a historical wave of liquidity with M-2 money supply growth rates of more than 10 percent. But take a look at the chart below to see what has happened since.
Year over year M-2 growth has stalled … growing by a mere 2 percent. That’s a far cry from a huge wave of liquidity. It’s better described as a trickle.
And if you take a global view, the picture is even getting worse!
The so called excess liquidity of the G7 nations, measured as M-1 minus industrial production minus consumer price inflation, has actually declined by 5 percent during the first quarter of the year.
If this global stock market rally was driven by liquidity — and I really think it was — the drying up of global liquidity should be seen as a clear warning sign.
The bull move, which in my opinion was a huge bear market rally that started in March 2009, is already on borrowed time. And I expect the market to top out during the coming months.
评论：全球流动性已经枯竭！道琼斯指数很危险。
尽快离开股市，趁每次反弹卖出，保留现金！剩余的头寸通过反向ETF对冲。