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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Socionomics and Frank Quattrone

For those who didn't notice, Frank Quattrone basically got a walk for whatever his sins of the past may have been. I think fans of socionomics may seen a bit of a pattern here. When the market was insane and sky-high, Quattrone was a hero. When the market took a huge dump, he was a villain.

Indeed, do you want to know when his trial was? That's right - October 2003- the bottom of the market.

Now that the market is - yep - insane and sky-high again, society gives him a walk. Coincidence? I think not.


Also, a tip of the hat to The Kirk Report. I appreciate the mention!

at 8/22/2006 33 insightful comments   Links to this post

Monday, August 21, 2006

Empty Motion

Yawn. Oh, is the market closed now? OK. Yeah, the market was down a bit today. Big deal. There's still clearly no firm direction.

I've noticed things have become so placid that there are instances where puts many months in the future are basically free. Take a look at the chain below. At the time this was taken, the intrinsic value of a $30 put was $6.61. And what's the bid/ask of the April 2007 put? 6.60 by 6.70. (The 5 contracts you see are mine - I was the only volume). Notice also that the ask price is the same month after month. How's that for low volatility? If you take a look at the stock chart, you'll see maybe it shouldn't be so...


And what's the most boring stock of all? How about multi-billion dollar powerhouse Google? This used to be all the rage. Now it's just sinking into a modest sine wave of nothingness. Look at the past ten months on a percentage scale, shown below. 0% change. Whoo-hoo!


Here are a few more short ideas on this otherwise ho-hum day........Adobe (ADBE):


AIG International (AIG):


Black & Decker (BDK):


Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME):


And even Microsoft (MSFT) which seems to be bumping against the other side of its long-ago broken trendline.

at 8/21/2006 46 insightful comments   Links to this post

Wedding Bell Blues

The Dow getting whacked more than 50 points this morning has me in good spirits, so I thought I'd do an unusual intraday post........

I went to a wedding on Saturday night. It was spectacular. I'm not at liberty to disclose who was getting married, since it would upset a lot of guys out there! But I've never seen such a star-studded gala. A lot of Internet luminaries, venture capitalists, hollywood producers, and the like. Plus little old me.

But here's why I'm telling the story. One of the fellows there - the founder of a major Internet company that I guarantee you've been to - is someone I know, so I introduced him to my wife and chatted with him a bit. I remarked on how bearish I was, and he smiled and shook his head and said, "Not me."

He went on to say that basically everyone learned their lessons during the bubble. There was no more over-hiring. No more buying too much inventory. No more waste. Not more bad decisions. Therefore - - no more bubble, and no more bust.

I've got to say, it was a little disconcerting to me. I mean, here's a guy who is really successful, really rich, and really smart. He went on........."As long as there are guys like you who worry, I know things are going to be OK. Because the markets are going to climb a wall of worry on the backs of guys like you. When you stop worrying, then there's trouble."

And I thought to myself - sheesh, that's kind of a shitty remark! I mean, what he's basically saying is that bears are sort of like canaries in a coal mine - - just really stupid ones. We are wrong all the time, so much so that when we decide the market is going to go up, that's when it's really going to get hammered. So until that time, it's all wine & roses.

I have a hard time dismissing this gent's comments out of hand. I mean, he's a really sharp fellow. But I also recognize that he's an incredibly successful Internet entrepreneur and, as such, is going to be highly inclined toward a bullish view of the world.

Food for thought.......

at 8/21/2006 17 insightful comments   Links to this post

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