083

Friday, September 01, 2006

Good Riddance, Summer!

Well, another hard session for the bears. I see a lot of bears throwing in the towels in the comment section. Sad, sad.

Well, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Here's the $OEX. It's getting back to to a pretty major Fib retracement level. We are way below the all-time highs set back during the bubble, so there's a fair bit of overhead resistance. We did not, however, have a double top, as I speculated we might yesterday.


The $INDU had an especially strong day. We are just 300 points away from the all-time high set back in January 2000. Can you imagine the headlines if we got to a lifetime high? Jesus. Reporters are running around like crazy as it is just because we're at three month highs on the major indices.


The $SPX has done a yeomans's job fighting its way up the wall of worry. It's discouraging but astounding to behold.


I will now cast off everything I hold dear, grab an air sickness bag, and offer up the only charts I could muster that look bullish, at least for the short term. Here we go.

ALL:


CP:


SHLD:


UNP:


The market hasn't been much fun to trade for bears since mid-July. It's been a real drag, actually, for six weeks now. If September - the month of the bears - doesn't turn things around in a major way, we should all sign the Declaration of Insanity that the rest of the world has apparently agreed to and just move on........

at 9/01/2006 43 insightful comments   Links to this post

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Somnambulant

Holy God, will someone please make me up whenever everyone gets back from vacation? I haven't had a vacation in years. Where is everyone? This is nuts!

OK, rant over. The market, once again, puttered, farted, and lolligagged all day long. My twin-disc DVD set ("Grass Growing" and "Paint Drying") is providing excellent entertainment in lieu of the markets. I think all market commentators should get time off until Tuesday, September 6th. It's just not right!

I really have nothing new to say about the markets. If things don't start getting zippier, I'm going to have to start posting old baseball statistics. Here are just a few charts. The latest on the S&P 500...........which way will it go? Hopefully next week, the first post-summer trading, will yield an answer.


The oil services sector, which fell nicely yesterday, went up a touch today. We still need to break below 130 to make this exciting. I've put a rounded rectangle to indicate the space OIH needs to traverse to make this H&S pattern complete.


The VIX is still stuck in neutral. Complacency abounds.

at 8/31/2006 95 insightful comments   Links to this post

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Oil Slips, Market Blips

It had to happen sooner or later. I'd like to proudly announce the Technically Speaking Shameless Commerce store. There's just a few odds and ends there to proudly display your bearish disposition. Enjoy!

Even though the market rose again (grrrrrr........) my bearish portfolio rose too (hurrah!) mainly because I have so many oil shorts. Oil fell nicely, but it still hasn't broken its neckline. The magic number on the OIH is 130, folks. Go, OIH, go!


Did the S&P 100 double-top as of today? Only time will tell. I think almost everyone who reads this blog is sick of waiting for the market to run out of steam. I certainly am.


The $NDX (NASDAQ 100) is kissing the underside of its former supporting trendline. In fairness to the bulls, it seems the NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) overcame a similar trendline today. Here's the aforementioned $NDX.......


If you want to see proof of the volume withering away in this summer market, look at the SPY graph below. It isn't just a "last week of August" situation. For three whole months the volume has been shrinking. How's that for divergence when compared with the price action, eh?


The $VIX is screaming "complacency." It just grinds lower and lower. I guess people expect boredom and smooth sailing until we have active colonies on Mars.


A reader wrote and asked me to take off the bearish headpiece and point out a couple of bullish charts. I'd be happy to do so. The American Stock Exchange's Major Market Index ($XMI) is really good looking. The only reason I wouldn't rush headlong into buying this is because it's a freak. All the other major index charts look neutral at best. But, on its own, this is a fantastic looking chart for bulls.


As for an individual stock, it's not going to make anyone multi-hundred percent gains anytime soon, but Genentech (DNA) has been very firm. A nice saucer shape has been forming.


Now go buy a t-shirt! And I'll see you tomorrow......

at 8/30/2006 38 insightful comments   Links to this post

Newer Posts Older Posts Home