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Thursday, December 28, 2006
Looking Back at 2006 via TraderTim
There are just a couple of business days left in 2006. I, for one, will be happy to put this year behind me. I just skimmed all my posts for the year (and I did a lot of writing this year.......it would easily fill a book) and the recurring themes seem to be (a) frustration and (b) boredom. Not good.
There is, however, some good stuff in the bowels of this blog. Today I wanted to review some of my "hits" and "misses" for 2006, and tomorrow I'm going to publish a Best of the Blog for your enjoyment.
I'm the sort of guy who, if you have good news and bad news to tell me, I always want to hear the bad news first. So let's look at my misses for this year (on the whole, these are just hyperlinks to the blog entry - I suggest you right-click on them and just open the article into a new tab or new window so you don't lose this list):
The Misses
NTRI is doomed! - NutriSystem has done quite well this year, in fact. An amazing stock.
My overall bearishness - well, my Lord, you can find this in almost every post! But a couple of examples are here and here.
Cult of the Bear - a link to the fascinating three-part article predicting 6,800 on the Dow in 2006 (umm, well, the Dow is about twice that level).
Making too much of losses early in the year - but, wow, wouldn't you love to see a GLOBEX screen like that one again?
Shorting OIH prematurely
Premature prediction as to the demise of HANS - it went much higher before it finally stumbled.
The poo-pooing of Barron's prediction for Dow 12,000 - As you know, it's beat that by a wide margin already.
OK, so I'm an idiot, right? Well, only half-right. I had some hits too. Let's take a look back:
The Hits
Predicting GOOG would sink to $330 - OK, I get to gloat on this a bit. The stock bottomed at $331.55. This was an amazing call. Were that there were more like it!
MTH short - a beautiful head and shoulders pattern
ASYT buy, with a target of $7.50 - it actually climbed even higher, to above $11.
Bullish buy list - the average gain on this list is over 25% now. Maybe I should do more bullish posts, eh?
GOOG as a buy - the stock is up nearly double since this post.
COF short suggestion
PNRA short suggestion
BLUD long suggestion
I'm honestly not trying to get away with rehashing old material. It's instructive to look back. I hope you enjoy reviewing some of these old posts, even though they only show me in a semi-favorable light!
I'll be back tomorrow with my Best of the Blog list.
at 12/28/2006 9 insightful comments 
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Wednesday, December 27, 2006
12,500
Wow. They finally did it. The bulls got the Dow over 12,500. 2006 is definitely going to be a year of great memories for the bulls. Congratulations, longhorns!
If you look at the performance of the various indices this year, you can see that - strangely - the Dow 30 is the king. Clearly mega-caps are on top of the world. The Dow is usually the boring, staid index compared to the likes of the NASDAQ. The laggard here is in fact the NASDAQ 100.
One chart that provides some small bit of comfort to bears is of the S&P 500. Take a look at how the index has behaved within the confines of the channel I have drawn. It certainly seems that the time is pretty ripe for a push downward. We are completely mushed up against the highest bounds of the channel, and the time space between the arrows is calling for a fall.
Anderson (ANDE) is a pretty handsome looking chart to buy (yes, buy). The volume is relatively anemic, however, and that's not a great confirmation sign.
Immucor (BLUD), which I've mentioned many times in the past as a buy, continues to push higher. The higher it goes, the stronger it looks.
Express Scripts (ESRX) actually fell today, in spite of the triple-digit rise on the Dow. I've always enjoyed this one as a bearish play, and I'm in it again.
Google is still looking good for a fall, in spite of recent strength.
Looking closer, one could even suggest a small head and shoulders pattern recently. Today's big upward move was a nice retracement to the neckline.
There are only two days left to the very tough year.......I suspect the bulls are going to just keep padding their gains.
Hope springs eternal. Come on, 2007 - - be kind to us!
at 12/27/2006 9 insightful comments Links to this post
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Boxing Day
Feh. Blame it on the post-yuletide blahs. There's really not much to say today. A lot of fellow bloggers are taking the entire week off, so I'm trying not to feel too guilty about it. I will say a couple of quick things, though.
First, one of my favorite readers, Leisa, was kind enough to put together a highly disturbing item - - Tim the Elf - - hang on to your pointed shoes.
Second, the comments section has very recently become clogged with a bunch of religious debate nonsense. Maybe I should keep my analogies to myself. But, please, folks, cut it out. Let's try to focus on the markets.
I'm sure the muse will be with me tomorrow. Now turn your computer off and go have another egg nog. It's too soon to abandon the holidays.
at 12/26/2006 7 insightful comments Links to this post