中国出口飙升 抬高加息压力China’s exports surge more than expected

China recorded another large trade surplus in November of $22.9bn as both exports and imports grew strongly, putting more pressure on the Chinese authorities to raise interest rates and let its currency appreciate.

中国11月再次出现高额贸易顺差。在进出口均强劲增长的情况下，贸易顺差达到229亿美元。这将加大中国当局面临的加息及让人民币升值的压力。

Exports grew 34.9 per cent in November over the same month the year before, much faster than forecast, and potentially a sign that demand from developed economies is picking up. In October, exports rose 22.9 per cent.

11月中国出口同比增长34.9%，远远高于预期。这可能意味着来自发达经济体的需求正逐渐恢复。中国10月份的出口增幅为22.9%。

Imports to China were also well ahead of forecasts, increasing by 37.7 per cent over the year before, compared to an increase of 25.3 per cent in October.

11月的进口也远高于预期水平，同比增长37.7%，而10月的同比增幅为25.3%。

The trade surplus was down from the $27.15bn registered in October, but ahead of forecasts and still one of the biggest ever recorded.

11月份的贸易顺差较10月份的271.5亿美元有所下降，但仍高于预期水平，位居有史以来最大顺差之列。

Economists said the strong surge in exports and large surplus comes amid continued international pressure for China to allow the renminbi to appreciate more quickly, especially as the Chinese currency has actually been getting weaker against a basket of its main trading partners’ currencies in recent weeks.

经济学家表示，中国发布强劲的出口增长和巨额盈余数据之际，正值国际社会持续对中国施压，要求其加快人民币升值步伐。尤其是在最近几周，人民币兑由数个主要贸易伙伴国货币组成的一篮子货币的汇率，实际上还有所下降。

“It is increasingly difficult to argue that China’s export sector cannot tolerate some currency appreciation, a move which would also help Beijing get price pressures under control,” said Brian Jackson at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong. “The strength of domestic demand also suggests that rate hikes are needed to keep China’s economy on an even keel.”

加拿大皇家银行(RBC)驻香港策略师布赖恩•杰克逊(Brian Jackson)表示：“中国越来越难以证明其出口行业无法承受人民币升值，而升值还能帮助中国政府控制物价压力。强劲的国内需求还表明，要想保持中国经济的平衡，加息也是必要之举。”

Last week, China’s State Council, the cabinet, formally changed the description of monetary policy from “moderately loose” to “prudent” over the next year.

上周，中国国务院正式改变了明年货币政策的基调，从“适度宽松”转变为“稳健”。

Interest rates have been hiked once already and there is widespread speculation that rates will be raised again on Friday, after the market closes. Inflation in October jumped to 4.4 per cent, well above the government’s 3 per cent target.

中国今年已加息一次，而人们普遍猜测，央行将在周五闭市后再度加息。中国10月份通胀率飙升至4.4%，远高于政府3%的目标水平。

However, some economists believe that the Chinese authorities have been too slow to tighten policy and control inflation, which could be made worse by the surprising strength in exports.

不过，一些经济学家认为，中国当局在收紧政策和控制通胀方面动作过于迟缓，而出口出人意料的强劲增长，可能会令通胀进一步抬头。

“Note that exceedingly strong exports growth amid an already overheated domestic economy is not good news as it adds to the overheating pressures which will require the government to take even more stringent measures to bring down inflation,” said Yu Song and Helen Qiao at Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的宋宇和乔虹(Helen Qiao)表示：“我们注意到，在国内经济本已过热的情况下，出口增长如此强劲并不是一个好消息，因为这将加大经济过热的压力，迫使政府采取更加紧缩的措施，以压低通胀。”

However, house price inflation, a major worry earlier in the year, continues to ease as a result of a flurry of government policies aimed at cooling the market. Prices rose 7.7 per cent in November in the 70 cities monitored by the government statistics bureau, down from 8.6 per cent in October.

不过，今年早些时候最令人担心的房价上涨，在政府出台一系列旨在为房市降温的政策后继续放缓。统计局公布的数据显示，11月份全国70个城市的平均房价同比上涨7.7%，较10月份的8.6%有所下降。