中国股市清理“强盗贵族”

Rising inflation and fears over what Beijing will do next to rein in surging food and property prices have carried much of the blame for the recent mini-crash in Chinese stocks. But Chinese analysts, officials and market participants say the market is also reacting to what appears to be the government’s most serious campaign in years aimed at tackling rampant insider trading and stock manipulation.

日益攀升的通胀，加之投资者对中国政府下一步将采取何种措施抑制食品与房价不断飙升的担忧，是近期中国股市出现小规模崩盘的主要原因。但中国分析师、官员和市场人士表示，市场近期的走势，也与政府打击猖獗的内幕交易及股票操纵行为有关。此次打击行动似乎是多年来最严厉的一次。

China’s benchmark equity index, while recovering a little on Wednesday, has tumbled more than 9 per cent in less than two weeks. Indeed, share prices have been falling as precipitously as they rose in a bull run that saw the index climb nearly 20 per cent between October 8 and November 11. The slide has coincided with a nationwide campaign, announced last week by the State Council, China’s cabinet, to crack down on the “grim situation” of insider trading.

中国基准股指在不到两周的时间内大跌逾9%（尽管周三略有反弹）。事实上，股价的下跌与此轮牛市行情中的上涨同样急速。10月8日至11月11日之间，大盘上涨了近20%。而此次下跌，适逢中国国务院上周宣布，在全国范围内开展对“形势严峻”的内幕交易的打击行动。

Mainland China’s markets are notoriously opaque and speculative. Everyone, from small retail investors to top fund managers, appears to trade on tips from contacts who claim to have “inside” information. “If you ask any Chinese investor whether they think a chairman or executive of a company is trading in their own stock, nine out of 10 would expect that to be the case just as they would expect a government official to be taking bribes,” says Fraser Howie, co- author of Red Capitalism and other books on China’s stock markets.

中国内地股市的不透明与投机性强是出了名的。从散户投资者到顶级基金经理，所有人似乎都在根据号称有“内幕”消息的熟人的建议炒股。《红色资本主义》(Red Capitalism)作者之一侯伟(Fraser Howie)表示：“如果你询问任何一位中国投资者，是否认为某公司董事长或高管在交易自己公司的股票，90%的人会给出肯定的答案，就象他们认为所有政府官员都在受贿一样。”侯伟还著有其它以中国股市为题材的书籍。

Last week’s announcement marked the first time the Chinese cabinet has publicly addressed the issue of insider trading and was interpreted by investors as a signal of the government’s determination to head off a new stock bubble.

上周的公告，是中国国务院首次公开谈论内幕交易问题，投资者将其解读为政府决心阻止新一轮股市泡沫的信号。

Previous government campaigns against market irregularities, such as those launched in 2001 and 2007, have often coincided with the securities regulator’s attempts to cool runaway prices. “Nobody can be confident in this market over the short term when there’s a clampdown like this going on,” Mr Howie says. Chinese investors and fund managers appear to be bracing themselves for a wave of prosecutions as the first casualties of this latest campaign begin to emerge.

此前政府打击市场违规行为，通常都是为了配合证券监管部门抑制股价暴涨而采取的，比如2001和2007年的两次。侯伟表示：“一旦开展这样的行动，短期内所有人对这个市场都不会有太大信心。”中国投资者与基金经理似乎已准备好迎接一波诉讼浪潮，而最新行动的首批“受害者”已开始浮出水面。

Chinese media reports and market speculation claim that three top fund managers have already been investigated in the new crackdown. All three individuals have denied they are the subject of any investigation, but two of them have resigned from their positions at leading Chinese investment funds.

中国媒体报道及市场传言称，三名顶级基金经理已受到调查。这三人均否认自己受到调查，但其中两人已从中国领先的投资基金中辞职。

Although, if true, this would be the most serious crackdown on insider trading in years, Beijing has a dismal record of catching people for a practice that everyone in the market says is rampant. In the past eight years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has sent less than 90 cases of insider trading for criminal investigation and prosecution in Chinese courts.

尽管，如果政府是认真的，这可能是多年来最严厉的一次打击内幕交易行动，但中国政府捉逮内幕交易者的记录一直很差劲——尽管市场中的所有人都认为这种行为已泛滥成灾。过去8年内，中国证监会(CSRC)提交国内法庭进行刑事调查和起诉的内幕交易案不足90起。

And, in September this year, a real-estate company called Dragon Wing Development became the first Chinese corporate entity convicted of insider trading since 1997.

今年9月，上海祖龙景观开发有限公司(Dragon Wing Development)成为1997年以来，首家被判犯有内幕交易罪的中国企业。

Wu Jinglian, a Chinese government economist, recently described the country’s stock market as being in the “age of robber barons” and pointed to insider trading by government officials as especially common. In private, senior regulatory officials admit that government officials and their relatives are some of the worst offenders and the problem is serious even among those who are supposed to be policing the market.

中国政府经济学家吴敬琏近期表示，中国股市正处于“强盗贵族时代”，他同时指出，政府官员的内幕交易行为尤其普遍。中国高层监管官员私下承认，政府官员及其亲属位居最严重的违规者之列，而且，在那些本应维持市场秩序的官员中，这个问题也十分严重。

Rumours of a shake-up within the CSRC itself have been circulating in the market since late October, when an official in the commission’s market supervision department apparently committed suicide by jumping off a building in Beijing.

自10月下旬以来，市场上一直流传着证监会内部可能出现大规模变动的传言，当时证监会市场监督部门一名官员在北京跳楼自杀。

But, given the government’s poor record and the web of relationships and favours that protects most officials in China’s one-party system, analysts are not optimistic that this campaign will do anything to stamp out insider trading.

但鉴于政府糟糕的记录，以及中国一党制体系中覆盖了大多数官员的裙带关系网，对于此次行动能否在根除内幕交易方面产生什么效果，分析人士并不乐观。

Liu Jipeng, an economics professor at the China University of Political Science and Law, says that in China government officials have the power to influence even minor business decisions at listed companies, giving them enormous advantages over ordinary investors and a huge incentive to buy shares in anticipation of their own actions.

中国政法大学经济学教授刘纪鹏表示，在中国，政府官员有权力影响上市公司哪怕微不足道的商业决策，从而获得了相对于普通投资者的巨大优势，以及操纵股价牟利的强烈动机。

“The root of the problem lies with China’s unreasonable administrative approval system and the core issue is information leaking out from policymakers’ decisions,” Mr Liu says. “This is a systemic problem and many of the robbers are in the regulatory departments themselves.”

刘纪鹏表示:“这一问题的根源，在于中国不合理的行政审批制度，而核心问题是政策制定者决策信息泄露。这是一个制度性问题，许多‘强盗’就在监管部门内部。”