纽约时报：中国政府在韩朝危机中的立场、行为和心理分析

China Seeks Talks to Ease Korean Tension
David Guttenfelder/Associated Press
On Sunday, South Korean marines patrolled the coast of Yeonpyeong Island, which North Korean artillery shelled last Tuesday.
By IAN JOHNSON and HELENE COOPER
Published: November 28, 2010
BEIJING — China moved over the weekend to defuse the latest crisis on the Korean Peninsula, publicly calling on Sunday for “emergency consultations” while beginning what amounted to high-level shuttle diplomacy between North and South Korea.
Together, the moves by China were its first concerteddiplomatic intervention to calm the emotions that have dangerously escalatedsince NorthKorea’s lethal shelling last Tuesday of a South Korean islandin the disputed border area between them.
Even so, the Chinese response, which appeared to bestudiously neutral, was far from what either South Korea or the United Stateshad publicly sought from China, which provides critical economic aid to theNorth and is believed to have the most leverage on North Korea’s reclusivegovernment.
American officials had wanted China to single out the North as anaggressor in this case, as well as criticize the North over its recentunveiling of a new plant for uranium enrichment. South Korea’s president, LeeMyung-bak, said in a televised speech on Monday in Seoul that if theNorth acted provocatively again, “We will make sure it pays a dear pricewithout fail.” President Lee made no mention of China’s diplomacy.
Chinese analysts said Beijing’s solutions were not perfectbut were the best it could do. “North Korea is not the kind of country that ifits neighbor severs economic assistance it will bow down and listen to it,”said Liu Ming of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. “China knows this, soit cannot do much more.”
The Chinese effort came as the United States, SouthKorea’s most powerful ally, began naval war games with South Korean forces in the YellowSea in response to the shelling, a move that both China and North Korea havecriticized as provocative.
In a hastily called news conference in Beijing, theChinese government asked for South Korea, North Korea, the United States, Japanand Russia to convene what it described as emergency consultations in Beijingnext month as a way to avoid a further deterioration of the situation. Thecountries have been participants in the so-called six-party talks that havebeen held intermittently — and unsuccessfully — for years over ways to denuclearizethe Korean Peninsula.
China also sent a top foreign policy official, StateCouncilor Dai Bingguo, to South Korea over the weekend and announced that aNorth Korean official would travel to Beijing on Tuesday, in what appeared tobe an attempt at mediation, something unusual for China in its complexrelationship with the Koreas.
It was unclear whether China’s efforts were a response tothe repeated calls by both the Obama administration and South Korea’sgovernment for the Chinese to exert influence on North Korea.
Publicly at least, American officials were unimpressedwith China’s response. Secretary of State HillaryRodham Clinton talkedwith Mr. Dai by telephone on Sunday, telling him that China’s call foremergency consultations could not substitute for action by North Korea, saidthe State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley.
He said Mrs. Clinton told Mr. Dai that North Korea’sbehavior was “destabilizing,” adding that “clear steps by North Korea areneeded to demonstrate a change of behavior.”
South Korea, for its part, appeared equally unimpressed.Many South Koreans made pointed references to President Lee’s statement in which he “urged Beijing to play arole befitting its newfound international prestige.”
Especially annoying to many South Koreans is that Chinafailed to criticize North Korea for the artillery barrage, which resulted inthe first South Korean civilian deaths from North Korean weaponry since the1953 armistice that halted the Korean War. Instead, China’s state-run mediagave equal prominence to North Korea’s claim that the United Statesmasterminded the crisis.
“This is disappointing,” said Yoon Duk-min, a regionalsecurity specialist at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Securityin Seoul. “The six-party talks are a dialogue to solve the nuclear issue, notthe current crisis on the peninsula.”
Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean studies atDongguk University, said South Korea was unlikely to accept China’s offerbecause it would seem to come as a result of North Korean violence. “Maybeafter time passes, but not now,” he said.
But in Washington, some Asia experts said that the realitywas that the United States and South Korea would eventually have little choicebut to go along with China’s call for talks, if for no other reason than todefuse the tension and prevent North Korea from taking even more aggressive ordrastic actions against its neighbor to the south.
“Ultimately, you have to talk with them,” said GeorgePerkovich, an arms control expert at the Carnegie Endowment for InternationalPeace. “You have to bargain, because if you don’t, this is what they do. Theymake things worse. They create a crisis.”
He pointed to othertimes when North Koreahas called attention to itself while American leaders were preoccupied orrefusing to hold direct talks with the North. In several of those cases, North Korea made aggressive moves toward South Korea.
But PresidentObama is underpolitical pressure at home to appear tough, especially on China. SenatorLindseyGraham, Republican from South Carolina and a member of the SenateArmed Services Committee, told “Fox News Sunday” that the United States “shouldpush China hard” to get North Korea to refrain from aggressive actions.
Senator JohnMcCain, speaking on “State of the Union”on CNN, also criticized the Chinese.
“We have to understand that China is not behaving in aresponsible fashion as a world power,” Mr. McCain said.
China has balkedat pushing North Korea toohard because it does not want the North Korean government to fall, which couldlead to reunification of North and South Korea. Many Asia experts saythat reunification would result in a country that is far more an ally of theUnited States than of China, and could lead to American troops right on theChinese border — an outcome that Beijing is loath to see happen.
But Chinaalso does not want a war, which could destabilize the entire region and dosevere damage to China’sown economic growth and aspirations for greater influence in the world. Hence China’sunusually high-profile efforts to defuse the crisis.
“I think it is a dramatic change of Chinese policy toaddress its growing concern,” said Zhu Feng, deputy director of the Center forInternational and Strategic Studies at Peking University.“This initiative shows that Beijingis more proactive.”
Some say that Chinahad no choice because the crisis was complicating its goal of controlling theYellow Sea, a body of water Chinawishes to dominate in the way that the United States controls the Gulf of Mexico.Now, because of North Korea’sshelling, a United Statesaircraft carrier is participating in war games there, upsetting the Chinese.
“It’s what they didn’t need,” said Andrew Gilholm, NortheastAsia analyst in Shanghaifor the Control Risks Group, a London-based consulting firm. “They’re trying tosqueeze out U.S.influence in the region.”
Michael J. Green, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that while Chinawas genuinely worried — both about North Korea’s volatility and the growingUnited States presence in Asia — the six-party talks were no longer a credibleapproach.
“This is the Chinese default position every time,” hesaid. “The question is, will the Obama administration fall for it?”