神马文学网云研究预测：全球变暖将加剧
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/27 02:51:23
云研究预测：全球变暖将加剧
ScienceDaily (Nov. 23, 2010) — Current state-of-the-art global climate models predict substantial warming in response to increases in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The models, though, disagree widely in the magnitude of the warming we can expect. The disagreement among models is mainly due to the different representation of clouds. Some models predict that global mean cloud cover will increase in a warmer climate and the increased reflection of solar radiation will limit the predicted global warming. Other models predict reduced cloudiness and magnified warming.
科学日报2010年11月23日——目前最先进的全球气候模型预测，温室气体如二氧化碳的增加将导致大幅升温。不过这个模型在升温的幅度上和我们的预期相当不一致。各个模型间的不一致主要是由于对云的不同描述造成的。一些模型预测全球平均云覆盖量在较暖的气候下会增长，从而增加对太阳辐射的反射，将会使预期的全球变暖变得有限。其它的模型则预测云量减少，大幅升温。
In a paper that has just appeared in the Journal of Climate, researchers from the University of Hawaii Manoa (UHM) have assessed the performance of current global models in simulating clouds and have presented a new approach to determining the expected cloud feedbacks in a warmer climate.
在一篇刚刚发布在《气候杂志》上的论文当中，夏威夷大学马诺阿分校(UHM)的研究者们评估了当前这些全球气候模型中模拟云方面的性能，并提出了一种新的方法在变暖的气候中确定预期的云反馈信息。
Lead author Axel Lauer at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) at UHM notes, "All the global climate models we analyzed have serious deficiencies in simulating the properties of clouds in present-day climate. It is unfortunate that the global models' greatest weakness may be in the one aspect that is most critical for predicting the magnitude of global warming."
UHM国际太平洋研究中心(IPRC) 的主要作者Axel Lauer指出，“我们分析的所有这些全球气候模型在模拟当前气候的云性质方面都有严重的缺陷。很不幸，这些气候模型的最大弱点可能正是在预测气候变暖幅度的问题上最为关键的因素之一。”
To study the clouds, the researchers applied a model representing only a limited region of the atmosphere over the eastern Pacific Ocean and adjacent land areas. The clouds in this region are known to greatly influence present climate, yet current global models do poorly in representing them. The regional model, developed at the IPRC, successfully simulates key features of the region's present-day cloud fields, including the observed response of clouds to El Nino. Having evaluated the model's simulation of present-day conditions, the researchers examined the response of simulated clouds in a warmer climate such as it might be in 100 years from now. The tendency for clouds to thin and cloud cover to reduce was more pronounced in this model than in any of the current global models.
为了研究云，研究者们采用了一种模型，这种模型仅展现了东太平洋和其临近陆地大气层上一块限定的区域。这块地区的云层已知在很大程度上影响着当今的气候，但目前的气候模型却对它们考虑的非常欠缺。IPRC开发的这个区域模型成功地模拟了这个区域当今云区的关键特性，包括观测到的云区对厄尔尼诺现象的反应。通过评估这个模型对当今气候条件的模拟，研究者们考察了当气候变暖时(比如从今开始一百年后)模拟云层的反应。云层变薄和云覆盖量减少的趋势在这个模型中比在其他的任何模型中都要显著的多。
Co-author Kevin Hamilton concludes, "If our model results prove to be representative of the real global climate, then climate is actually more sensitive to perturbations by greenhouse gases than current global models predict, and even the highest warming predictions would underestimate the real change we could see."
合作研究者Kevin Hamilton总结道，“如果我们的模型结果被证实能真实模拟真正的全球气候，那么全球气候对于温室气体的干扰，实际上将比目前的气候模型预测的还要敏感得多；对气候变暖的最严重的预测甚至都可能低估了我们将会实际看到的变化。”
This research was supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), by NASA through Grant NNX07AG53G, and by NOAA through Grant NA09OAR4320075, which sponsor research at the International Pacific Research Center. This research was also supported by NOAA/CPPA Grant NA07OAR4310257 and DOE Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RCGM) Program Grant ER64840.
这项研究得到了以下支持：日本海洋研究机构 (JAMSTEC)，美国航空航天局(NASA) 的捐款(NNX07AG53G)，以及美国国家海洋和大气局(NOAA) 的捐款(NA09OAR4320075)，后者用于赞助国际太平洋研究中心的研究工作。这项研究还得到了NOAA/CPPA的捐款(NA07OAR4310257)和美国能源部区域和全球气候模型(RCGM)计划的捐款(ER64840)支持。