最常见的十大人类思维误区

The human mind is a wonderful thing. Cognition, the act or process of thinking, enables us to process vast amounts of information quickly. For example, every time your eyes are open, you brain is constantly being bombarded with stimuli. You may be consciously thinking about one specific thing, but you brain is processing thousands of subconscious ideas. Unfortunately, our cognition is not perfect, and there are certain judgment errors that we are prone to making, known in the field of psychology as cognitive biases. They happen to everybody regardless of age, gender, education, intelligence, or other factors. Some of them are well known, others not, but all of them are interesting. I am sure everyone will find that one has happened to them, (I myself have been prone to several) and now will recognize when they are making an error in the future.人类的思维实在是一种很奇妙的东西。认知、行为或是思考的过程都是我们能够快速的处理大量信息。举个例子吧，我们睁着眼睛的时候，大脑通常都充斥着各种刺激，也许你在考虑一个特定的问题，但你的大脑却处理着数以千计的潜在意识。不幸的是，我们的认知能力并不是完美无缺的，常常容易判断错误，这就是心理学上说的认知偏差。这种偏差在每个人身上都会发生，与年龄、性别、教育程度、智力或者其他的因素无关。这些误区中有一些是很常见的，有些较罕见，但都很有趣。我敢保证，每个人都会发现犯过其中的错误（我自己就很容易犯），现在，你们会认识到在将来的什么时候会犯这些错误。
第十Gambler’s Fallacy格兰布勒的错误推断
The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that theprobabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many agambler to lose money thinking the probabilities have changed.格兰布勒的错误推断就是指人们认为未来事情发生的概率会被过去的食物改变，这里并不是说特定的不会发生变化的概率，比如说抛硬币时人头朝上的概率。举个例子。如果我在玩轮盘赌，前四个转轮都是黑色，那最后一个一定就是红色对不对？当然错了！红色的概率仍然是47.37%（18/38）。也许在你看来这样的错误很明显，但就是这种意识的偏差让很多赌徒认为概率发生了改变。
第九
Reactivity应激
Reactivity is the tendency of people to act or appear differently when they know that they are being observed. In the 1920s, Hawthorne Works (a manufacturing facility) commissioned a study to see if different levels of light influenced worker productivity. What they found was incredible, changing the light caused productivity to soar! Unfortunately, when the study was finished, productivity levels decreased to their regular levels. This was because the change in productivity was not due to the light levels, but to the workers being watched. This demonstrated a form of reactivity; when individuals know they are being watched, they are motivated to change their behavior, generally to make themselves look better. Reactivity is a serious problem in research, and has to be controlled in blind experiments (“Blind” is when individuals involved in a research study are purposely withheldinformation so as not to influence the outcomes).应激是指人们通常会在他人的注视下做出反常的行为或表情。在二十世纪二十年代，豪斯王工厂（一家设备制造工厂）出资进行了一项研究：工人的工作生产力会不会受灯光亮度的影响。研究的结果令他们大吃一惊，灯光亮度的调节使得生产力大大提高！然而不幸的是，当研究结束后，工人的生产力有下降到的原来的水平。这是因为，生产力的变化与灯光无关而与工人们被监视有关。这也解释应激的一种形式：当人们觉察到被注视时，就会激发他们通过改变行为使自己看起来更自然。应激反应是一个很严肃的问题，必须通过盲法对照来研究。（盲法就是为了不影响试验结果的真实性，参与实验的个人被隐瞒试验信息）
第八
Pareidolia空想性错现
Pareidolia is when random images or sounds are perceived as significant. Seeing clouds in the shapes of dinosaurs, Jesus on a hot pocket, or hearing messages when a record is played backward are common examples of pareidolia. The common element is that the stimulus is neutral, it does not have intentional meaning; the meaning is in the viewer’s perception.空想性错现是指将偶然的影像或声音当成必然。看到天上的云会觉得像是恐龙、耶稣或是在倒带的时候听到什么声音，着都是常见的空想性错现症状。这种症状的原理是：中立的外在刺激并没有特殊的内在意义，主要是在于观者的心理。
Interesting Fact: the Rorschach Inkblot test was developed to use pareidolia to tap into people’s mental states. Testees are shown images of ambiguous pictures, and asked to describe what they see. Responses are analyzed to discover the testee’s hidden thoughts.有趣的发现：罗斯查克-因克布罗特测试可以利用空想性错现患者的精神状态。研究者会给参与测验的人观看一些意义不明的图片，并让他们描述其所见，通过这些就可以分析出测验者的潜在想法。
第七
Self-fulfilling Prophecy自我暗示
Self-fulfilling prophecy is engaging in behaviors that obtain results that confirm existing attitudes. A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true. For example, I believe that I am going to do poorly in school, so I decrease the effort I put into my assignments and studying, and I end up doing poorly, just as I thought. Another common example is relationships; I think my relationship with my significant other is going to fail, so I start acting differently, pulling away emotionally. Because of my actions, I actually cause the relationship to fail. This is a powerful tool used by “psychics” – they implant an idea in your mind, and you eventually make it happen because you think it will.
自我暗示主要是指去确认已存在的看法获得结果的行为。自我暗示就是一种会让预兆变成现实的东西。比如说，我觉得我的学习会很差劲，于是，我就会不努力写功课、不认真学习，结果我的学业真的很差劲，和我想的一样。另一个常见的例子是与他人的关系，如果我认为我和对方的关系会恶化，我就会行为反常，变得情绪化，于是，我们的关系如期恶化。这种自我暗示的方法是通灵者惯用的伎俩，他们向你的脑子里灌输一种观点，最终你会将它实现。
Interesting Fact: Economic Recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Because a recession is 2 quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline, you cannot know you are in a recession until you are at least 6 months into one. Unfortunately, at the first sign of decreasing GDP, the media reports a possible recession, people panic and start a chain of events that actually cause a recession.有趣的发现：经济衰退是一种自我暗示。因为国内生产总值（GDP）连续两季度下降才叫做经济衰退，也就是说至少要有六个月的时间你才会觉察出正处于衰退中。不幸的是，在GDP刚刚出现了一点下滑趋势的时候，媒体就报导了，而媒体的报道也引起了人们的恐慌，造成一一系列的连锁反应，最终结果是经济真的衰退了。
第六
Halo effect光环效应
The Halo effect is the tendency for an individual’s positive or negative trait to “spill over” to other areas of their personality in others’ perceptions of them. This bias happens a lot in employee performance appraisals. For example: my employee, Biff, has been late to work the past three days; I notice this and conclude that Biff is lazy and does not care about his job. There are many possible reasons why Biff was late, perhaps his car broke down, his babysitter did not show up, or there has been bad weather. The problem is, because of one negative aspect that may be out of Biff’s control, I assume that he is a bad worker.光环效应指的是一个人对于其他人看法是积极或消极的。这种效应经常发生在对雇员的评价上。比如，比弗是我的一名员工，我发现过去的三天他都迟到了，于是我觉得他是个懒鬼，对工作不负责任。但其实，有很多原因会导致他的迟到，也许他的车抛锚了，也许帮他照顾孩子的保姆没上班，有或者是天气缘故。但是，关键是他的迟到已经给我早长了不好的印象，于是我理所当然的认为比弗不是个好员工。
Interesting Fact: The Physical Attractiveness Stereotype is when people assume that attractive individuals possess other socially desirable qualities, such as happiness, success and intelligence. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when attractive people are given privileged treatment such as better job opportunities and higher salaries.有趣的发现：心理吸引模板就是当人们自认为那些吸引人的个体拥有大家公认的品质，比如快乐、成功和智慧。当这种认为变成了一种心理暗示时受欢迎的人通常会获得特权，比如得到更好的工作机会和更高的薪水。
第五
Herd Mentality从众心理
Herd mentality is the tendency to adopt the opinions and follow the behaviors of the majority to feel safer and to avoid conflict. Also known as “Mob Mentality,” this is, at its most common form, peer pressure. Herd mentality explains why fads get so popular. Clothes, cars, hobbies, styles, all it takes is a group of people who think something is cool, and it catches on.从众心理是指人们会倾向于去采取大多数人认可的观点和行为来寻求安全感，避免冲突。也被称做“大众心理”，也是其最常见的形式。从众心理很好的解释了为什么时尚会变得那么流行。衣服、汽车、爱好、风格，它所起到的作用就是，一批人觉得某样东西很酷，于是大家都去追捧，这就是流行。
Interesting Fact: things that are unattractive, or that would never seem cool or popular now have had huge followings due to herd mentality. Examples include parachute pants, pet rocks, mullets, cone bras, tie-dye, sea monkeys, and the 1980s (by the way, that is an ’80s guy in the picture above).有趣的发现：因为从众心理的缘故，本来不那么受吸引人或者不那么流行的事物现在都有了大批的追随者，包括降落伞紧身裤，宠物石，胭脂鱼，锥形胸衣，扎染，丰年虾和1980s（顺便说一下，这是一个位于图片上方的80年代的家伙）
第四
Reactance感应抵抗
Reactance is the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. This is common with rebellious teenagers, but any attempt to resist authority due to perceived threats to freedom and/or choice is reactance. The individual may not have a need to do the specific behavior, however the fact that they cannot do it makes them want to.感应抵抗指的是你会因为想要获得自由而试图逆着人家的意愿做事。这在叛逆期的青少年中很常见，但是由于所谓的对自由的威胁而做出的任何反抗或选择都属于抗逆。个人也许并没有必要做一些特定的行为，然而他们不能做的让他们想去做。
Interesting Fact: “reverse psychology” is an attempt to influence people using reactance. Tell someone (particularly children) to do the opposite of what you really want, and they will rebel and actually end up doing what you want.有趣的发现：“颠倒心理学”就是一种试图用抵抗来影响他人的行为。让他们（特别是孩子）按照你相反的意愿去做，他们一定会反抗，那么结果还是随了你的愿。
第三
Hyperbolic Discounting双曲贴现
Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency for people to prefer a smaller, immediate payoff over a larger, delayed payoff. Much research has been done on decision-making, and many factors contribute to the individual decision making process. Interestingly, delay time is a big factor in choosing an alternative. Put simply, most people would choose to get 20 dollars today instead of getting 100 dollars one year from today. Normally it makes sense to choose a greater amount of money immediately than less in the future, as the value of a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow. Assume that the interest rate is 9%, at this interest rate, a rational person would be indifferent to taking $91.74 now, or $100 a year from now. However, it isinteresting how much less we are willing to take immediately rather than wait, would you rather have $100 a year from now, or $50 immediately? How about $40 immediately? Where do you draw the line?双曲贴现指的是人们相较于延迟和复杂的结局更倾向于简洁及时的。针对人类的决策过程，人们已将作了许多研究，发现有相当多的因素对其有影响。有意思的是，在决定要做出什么样的选择时，拖延的时间才是最重要的因素。简单来说，大多数人会选择今天拿20美元，而不是一年后的今天拿到100美元。事实上，立刻拿到得钱可能比以后拿到的钱数量还多，因为同样数量的钱，在今天的价值是要比日后高的。假设，利率是9%，那么聪明的人肯定知道当前拿91.74美元和一年后拿100美元诗没有多大区别的。然而，我还是很想知道一个人为了更快的得到利益会愿意牺牲多大，你是愿意一年后拿100美元还是现在就拿50美元呢？或者40美元？让步的底线到底在哪里呢？
第二
Escalation of Commitment义务的约束
Escalation of commitment is the tendency for people to continue to support previously unsuccessful endeavors. With all the decisions people have to make, it is unavoidable that some will be unsuccessful. Of course, the logical thing to do in these instances is to change that decision or try to reverse it. However, sometimes individuals feel compelled not only to stick with their decision, but also to further invest in that decision because they have sunk costs. For example, say you use half of your life savings to start a business. After 6 months, it is evident that the business is going to be unsuccessful. The logical thing to do would be to “cut your losses” and drop the business. However, due to the sunk costs of your life savings, you feel committed to the business and invest even more money into the project hoping that the additional cash will turn the business around.义务的约束指的就是人们会继续努力完成之前失败的事业。人的一生要做有多决定，不可避免的会有人走错路。从正常逻辑看来，如果陷入困境，应该要及时变通或悬崖勒马，但有时人们会觉得难以继续坚持之前的决定，并且因为已经有了牺牲，所以难以投资下去。举例说，如果让你花费半生积蓄去创业，半年之后，眼看着你的事业就要走下坡路了，按理说来，就应该减少损失，收手不干了。然而投进了半生积蓄，这让你觉得有责任投资更多的钱以期能够咸鱼翻身，东山再起。
第一
Placebo Effect安慰剂效应
The Placebo effect is when an ineffectual substance that is believed to have healing properties produces the desired effect. Especially common with medications, the placebo effect has been observed when individuals given a sugar pill for a real ailment report improvement. Placebos are still a scientific mystery. It is theorized that placebos cause an “Expectancy Effect”, (In cases of uncertainty, expectation is what is most likely to happen) individuals expect the pills to cure their ailments, so they feel cured. However, this does not explain how the ineffectual pills actually cause a reduction in symptoms.安慰剂效应是指一个没有治疗效果的物质，但如果你相信它有，就会起到一定的作用。这在药物治疗中很常见，临床观察到，那些治疗中服用了糖丸的病人，还是取得了一定的进展。安慰剂效应还是一个科学难题，但理论上讲安慰剂是早晨了期待效应（人在遇到不确定的情况时，事情多会朝着你期望的方向发展），因为病人希望有疗效，所以他感觉不错。但这还是不足以解释疾病症状减轻的原因。
Interesting Fact: The term “Placebo” is used when the outcomes are considered favorable, when the outcomes are negative or harmful; the term is “Nocebo”有趣的发现：如果结果是好的我们常用“安慰剂”这个词，但如果结果不尽如人意通常称作“反安慰剂效应”。