How likely is China's launch of a limited war against India?

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A Chinese officer tries an Indian weapon during the China-India army joint anti-terrorism training in India's Belgaum on Dec. 6, 2008.


With China, India is always in a capability vs. intention dilemma. China has a vastly superior conventional force and a decisive advantage in nuclear capability and can attack India at will. But it isn’t overly aggressive and professes peaceful co-existence.


India’s unresolved territorial and boundary dispute with China and an un-demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the Indo-Tibetan (India’s official position is the Tibetan autonomous region of China) border do not augur well for long-term peace and stability between these two Asian giants. The next major incident on the LAC could lead to a localized border conflict as either Indian patience with Chinese intransigence wears thin or the Chinese look at Indian attempts to build infrastructure and develop the border areas as the adoption of an aggressive forward posture. Hence, in the foreseeable future, a limited border war between the two cannot be entirely ruled out.


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Indian Navy conducting coastal security exercise


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China's Shang class Nuclear-powered attack submarine


Even the Sino-Indian maritime relationship has an adversarial potential as China is engaged in developing a “string of pearls” strategy to acquire port facilities around India at Hangyi, Hambantota, Gwadar and in the Maldives. While Chinese nuclear submarines can operate in the northern Indian Ocean for extended periods even today, India’s insecurity would be heightened when China establishes its naval presence in the Indian Ocean through deployment of its surface ships and when port facilities become available to it by about 2015.  


China has been following a policy of peace and tranquility with India at the strategic level while simultaneously keeping up the pressure at the tactical level through claims to the state of South China (Arunachal Pradesh) followed up by frequent intrusions, refusal of visa to the local residents and objections to the approval of an Asian Development Bank loan to India because this region would also have been a beneficiary. Clearly, China’s strategy is not to rock the boat too hard but to give itself leeway to raise the ante whenever it finds it convenient to do so. India must also utilize this window of relative tranquility with China for its economic development while simultaneously upgrading its military capabilities to squarely face any future Chinese threat.


India’s trade with China, which has crossed $50 billion in 2008-09 may not by itself be able to completely deter conflict. Hence, it is necessary for India to ensure that its national power grows comprehensively along with its growing economy.


Besides, India’s policy of nuclear deterrence lacks credibility with our aggressive neighbours. India lacks the inter-continental ballistic missile capability which means it will not be able to reach the far ends of a large neighbour. Its Agni missiles have not been tested adequately. At a maximum of 80, the number of warheads available to India does not fulfill even the low-end requirements of minimum deterrence. Add to all this the lingering doubts over the efficacy of the thermonuclear device tested in 1998. The outside world doesn’t believe India is ready to respond to a nuclear conflagration. (From Forbes)


According to Chinese experts on international relations, China and India have a lot in common though there are disputed bilateral issues. For example, China and India adopted the same stance without communication in the Copenhagen Climate Conference.


They point out western media's negative reports on the relation between China and India are more than positive reports. Sometimes, they describe "the threat from China" more serious than India itself deems.


Western media like to exaggerate conflicts between China and India. Only when the west sees the two countries in conflicts, it will feel at ease.




How likely is China's launch of a limited war against India?