分析：中国钾肥需求日增 China’s fertiliser needs in view

As all eyes look to China for a possible competing offer for PotashCorp , the country’s fertiliser needs are increasingly in the limelight.

随着所有的目光都转向中国，寻找可能会对加拿大钾肥公司(PotashCorp)提出收购竞标的中国企业时，中国的化肥需求也日益凸显。

Sinochem, the chemicals group that also handles China’s potash imports through its subsidiary Sinofert, has said it is paying “close attention” to the progress of BHP Billiton’s $39bn hostile offer for the Canadian fertiliser producer.

中国国有化工集团中化(Sinochem)已表示，正“密切关注”必和必拓(BHP Billiton)对加拿大钾肥公司390亿美元的敌意收购的进展。中化通过子公司中化化肥( Sinofert)管理中国的钾肥进口。

Underlying this interest is a mineral that China relies on to fulfil a goal considered paramount to national security – self-sufficiency in grain production.

中国对钾肥的兴趣背后，是它实现粮食生产自给自足的目标。这一目标被视为对国家安全极为重要，而中国高度依赖钾肥这种矿产资源来实现这一目标。

China is critically short of potash, and increasingly relies on the mineral as urban growth shrinks arable land and Beijing seeks to boost crop yields. The country is using about 7 per cent of global arable land to feed about 20 per cent of the world’s population, according to Informa Economics, the US-based agribusiness consultancy.

中国极度缺乏钾肥。随着城市扩大缩减了可耕地面积，政府希望扩大农作物产量，中国越来越依赖这种化肥。总部位于美国的农业咨询公司Informa Economics表示，中国正利用约占全球7%的可耕地养活约占全球20%的人口。

The Chinese Academy of Sciences, a think-tank that advises the government, said in a recent report that China’s reliance on imports “may become a major threat to its fast developing national economy and long-term strategic needs”.

中国科学院(Chinese Academy of Sciences)最近在一份报告中称，中国对粮食进口的依赖“可能会对其快速发展的国民经济和长期战略需要构成重大威胁。”中国科学院是一家为政府提供咨询的智库。

China imported about half of its potash last year, much of it from Canada and Russia. Domestic production is 3m-4m tonnes annually, with potash demand last year of 7.9m tonnes. Farmers have cut their use of potash due to the economic crisis, according to Wang Ling of China Fertilizer Market Week, but pre-crisis demand stood at about 11m tonnes annually.

去年，中国约一半的钾肥来自进口，很大一部分来自加拿大和俄罗斯。中国国内钾肥产量为 每年300万吨至400万吨，而去年的钾肥需求为790万吨。China Fertilizer Market Week的王玲(Wang Ling, 音译)表示，由于经济危机，农民减少了钾肥使用量，而危机前的需求曾达到每年1100万吨。

Jon Galligan, a Hong Kong-based analyst at CLSA who studies Chinese agriculture, says that the shortage of potash contrasts with “sufficient domestic supply in nitrogen fertilisers and phosphate”, the two other main fertilisers.

里昂证券(CLSA)研究中国农业的驻香港分析师乔恩•加里根(Jon Galligan)表示，与钾肥短缺形成对比的是，另外两种主要化肥“氮肥和磷肥的国内供应充足”。

“One of the stated goals of the government is to be self-sufficient in agricultural products, and by extension that also means being sufficient in fertilisers as well.”

“政府提出的一个目标是，农产品实现自给自足，推而广之，这也意味着化肥也要实现自给自足。”

China has the world’s sixth-largest reserves of potash in the world and the country has been aggressively expanding domestic potash production, with output doubling between 2005 and 2009, according to statistics from China Chemical Reporter, an industry magazine.

行业杂志《中国化工报导》(China Chemical Reporter)的数据显示，中国钾肥储量位居全球第六，中国一直在大力扩大国内钾肥生产，2005年至2009年，钾肥产出翻了一番。

But the domestic deposits are not large enough to match the country’s growing appetite for potash. Hence, China is working to develop resources in Laos, and earlier this year Chinese companies were reportedly eyeing a possible potash investment in Belarus.

然而，中国的国内储量无法满足中国对钾肥日益增长的需求。因此，中国正致力于在老挝开发钾肥。而另据报道，今年早些时候，中国企业也正曾考虑过在白俄罗斯投资钾肥。

The attraction of fertilisers for importers such as China, says Vincent Andrews, fertiliser analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York, is long-term supply security. “Countries are going to be perpetual buyers anyway, why not buy in bulk today and have assurity of supply?” he says.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻纽约化肥分析师文森特•安德鲁斯(Vincent Andrews)表示，对于中国等粮食进口国而言，化肥的吸引力在于长期供应安全。他表示：“各国都将成为永久的买家，为什么现在不去大量购买，确保供应？”

This year’s mediocre harvests in the country and rising imports of corn underline how critical fertilisers will be if China is to maintain its goal of grain self-sufficiency. Fertiliser companies have already said they would redouble efforts to ensure fertiliser supply as the autumn harvest season approaches.

中国今年的农作物收成平平，玉米进口量增加，这意味着如果中国要保持其粮食自给自足的目标，化肥将变得十分重要。中国的化肥企业已表示，它们将加倍努力，在秋季的收获季节临近之际，确保化肥供应。

Bill Doyle, PotashCorp chief executive, acknowledged China’s growing influence on the industry in a recent conference call with investors and analysts. “Over the past 20 years, [China’s] annual potash consumption growth has averaged almost 10 per cent,” he said.

在最近一次与投资者和分析师的电话会议上，PotashCorp首席执行官比尔•多伊尔(Bill Doyle)承认，中国对化肥行业的影响力日益增强。他表示：“过去20年，（中国）钾肥消费平均每年增长近10%。”

“The prospect of a hungry and growing market in China creates a very positive operating environment in the years ahead.”

“未来几年，中国饥渴且不断增长的市场前景，创造了一个非常有利的经营环境。”