Moody's Analytics推出针对中国的新型RiskCalc违约概率模型

2010年05月25日
纽约--(美国商业资讯)--风险管理解决方案领域的领导者Moody's Analytics今天宣布推出一种新型违约概率模型，用于评估中国的非上市公司的信用风险。该模型与RiskCalc的增强版RiskCalc Plus一起使用。RiskCalc将财务报表与股市信息整合进了对独立信用风险的高度前瞻性的评估。针对俄罗斯和新兴市场的其他模型将于2010年第三季度推出，从而使RiskCalc的分析能力拓展至全球非上市公司信用。
Moody's Analytics产品管理部门主管Anuj Gupta说："在向非上市公司进行出租和出借时，对风险的了解一直是一大挑战。通过RiskCalc中国模型，信用分析师如今可以根据类似的中国非上市公司的历史违约率，确定一项潜在中国交易的违约概率值，从而提供一种显著的竞争优势。"该模型通过来自30多万家中国公司的80多万份财务报表进行了开发和验证。
此外，RiskCalc Plus已经拓展至包含Peer Analysis。Peer Analysis使出借方可以对同行业中公司之间的借方风险与类似的资产情况进行对比。RiskCalc Plus还包含使用户能够绘制最多六年违约概率图表的增强功能，加深他们对违约风险趋势的了解。将于2010年第三季度发布的RiskCalc Plus的其它增强功能还将包括另外的报告选项和存储能力。
RiskCalc Plus以及针对中国、俄罗斯和新兴市场的新型违约概率模型以包含在Moody's Analytics的Credit RESearch Database (CRDTM)中的数据为基础。CRD通过与全球超过45家领先金融机构的合作而建成，包含有关650万家公司的3600万份财务报表和超过60万种非上市公司违约情况，提供了有关非上市公司违约概率的独特观点。
欲了解更多信息，请访问：www.moodys.com/riskcalc
关于Moody's Analytics
Moody's Analytics是一家为全球债务资本市场和信用风险管理专业人士提供研究、数据、分析工具和相关服务的领先提供商。该公司的产品和服务可提供个人风险和投资组合的信用风险评估和管理方法；提供债务证券的价格和价值份额；分析整体经济趋势；并增强客户的风险管理技能和实践。Moody's Analytics是穆迪公司（Moody's Corporation）（纽约证券交易所：MCO）旗下子公司，穆迪公司公布的2009年营收为18亿美元，在全球共有大约4000名员工，并在26个国家开展业务。欲了解有关该公司的其他信息，请访问：www.moodys.com。
RiskCalcTM


RiskCalc is the premier private firm probability of default model. RiskCalc enables greater accuracy, consistency and efficiency than other commercially available models and internal bank models when evaluating privately held firms. RiskCalc produces a forward-looking default probability (called expected default frequency, or EDFTM) by combining financial statement and equity market information into a highly predictive measurement of stand alone credit risk. RiskCalc consists of a global network of 25 models that cover approximately 80% of the world's GDP.
Credit Risk Challenge: Measuring Private Firm Credit Risk
Institutions are faced with an increasing demand to quantify private firm credit risk. This demand comes from shareholders seeking to maximize their return on risk and from regulators requiring adequate capital levels. Developing accurate and consistent default models for global private portfolios is a significant challenge due to data limitations and constraints on internal resources.
Measure Private-Firm Credit Risk Accurately, Efficiently and Consistently
RiskCalc’s robust analytics and broad coverage has made it the private-firm model of choice among the world’s leading banks, corporations, and asset managers. It is considered worldwide as the preferred model for:
Efficiently screening obligors at origination Early detection of credit deterioration Accurately and consistently pricing credit risk Monitoring and benchmarking exposures or investments Basel II compliance
Key RiskCalc Features
Comprised of a network of country-specific models developed and tested on local private-firm data to capture local default risk factors
Key RiskCalc Features
Comprised of a network of country-specific models developed and tested on local private-firm data to capture local default risk factors Can be used either as a stand-alone probability of default(PD) model, an input to an internal PD model or as a benchmarking tool Can be easily accessed via the website, through XML or RiskAnalyst™, Moody’s Analytics’ dual rating credit scoring platform Produces EDF credit measures from one through five years Maps EDF credit measures to agency ratings Uses intuitive and commonly used financial ratios such as leverage, profitability, debt coverage, liquidity, etc. Adjusts for unique industry differences Captures the impact of credit cycle changes from month-to-month in the period between two financial statements Displays valuable ratio diagnostics and their individual contributions to risk
RiskCalc’s Unique Advantage: The World’s Largest and Cleanest Private Company Default Database
The predictive power of RiskCalc is based on Moody’s Analytics CRD. Built in partnership with over 45 leading financial institutions around the world, the CRD contains 27 million financial statements on 5.6 million firms and over 500,000 private company defaults, yielding unique insight into private firm default probability.
RiskCalc’s Global Presence: Network of 25 World-Class Models
The RiskCalc network is comprised of unique models covering:
Americas: USA, Canada and Mexico country models, plus U.S. Insurance, U.S. Banks and North America Large Firm Europe, Middle East and Africa: Austria, France, Netherlands, Nordic (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland), Portugal, Spain, UK, Germany, Belgium, Italy, South Africa, Switzerland Asia Pacific: Japan, Korea, Australia, Singapore
Moody's KMV RiskCalc Global Network