VoIP for All...But When?

JUNE 19, 2006
Keep that grain of salt handy
By Ben Macklin - Senior Analyst
A new report from IDC,U.S. Residential VoIP Services 2006-2010 Forecast and Analysis: Where There Is Smoke, Is There Fire?, predicts that residential Voice over IP (VoIP) subscribers in the US will reach 44 million in 2010, up from 10.3 million in 2006. This will mean that, by 2010, 62% of all US broadband households will adopt VoIP for their phone service.

eMarketer is less bullish, projecting that by 2010 there will be 33 million residential VoIP subscribers in the US, equating to 39% of the projected number of broadband households. The variety of estimates from different researchers clearly indicates that the level and speed at which a new technology such as VoIP is adopted is difficult to predict.
What can be said with some confidence is that by the end of 2006 there will be around 10 million VoIP subscribers in the US and that the service will move beyond the "early adopter" stage this year, bringing greater clarity as to the potential size and shape of the VoIP market.

VoIP is still very much a niche market in both the US and the UK, but research fromHarris Interactive shows that the level of awareness of the service has grown significantly in both countries throughout 2005.

The Harris survey also revealed that among those adults who do not use Internet telephony, more than half (56%) in the UK and about half (49%) in the US say they are at least somewhat interested in it. However, only 26% of adults who do not currently use VoIP in both countries say they are likely to buy or consider buying VoIP service within the next 12 months.
Additional findings from the survey indicate that the key barriers to VoIP adoption will come from those people who prefer to use their landline to make calls (42% in the UK, 28% in the US). Further resistance will come from those who prefer to use their mobile phone (19% in the UK, 29% in the US) or those who indicate they do not talk much on the phone (40% in both the UK and the US).
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