神马文学网065
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/29 22:42:10
Monday, November 06, 2006
Electile Dysfunction
This is a really dangerous time for us bears. All eyes are on the election right now. Setting aside whether the Dems or the Reps prevail, the fact is that if the market breaths a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning (for whatever reason), there are important "lines in the sand" which could be taken out by the bulls. If this happens, I'm ready to hang up my bearish hat until probably mid-January of next year (and even then I would consider whether to don it again or not).
The NASDAQ Composite represents this danger well. Look how close it is to pushing above the double top it has made over the past several months.
The Russell 2000 also shows this danger, but in a different way. Look at the downward-pointing arrow. If the $RUT pushes above this level (and it could easily be tomorrow or Wednesday), there's going to be a very hefty stake pushed through the bear's heart for the rest of the year.
If the market does push higher, the $SOX is probably not a bad place to look for calls. It seems to have found a short-term bottom.
The $XAU (gold and silver), on the other hand, might be a nice short play. I've circled what seems to be a possible turning point. I've got puts on this index right now.
One stock which shows just how hefty the bull run has been in mega-investor Warren Buffett's BRK.A, which now trades well over $100,000 per share!
I've mentioned Fluor (FLR) before as another good bearish pattern, but it merits repeating.
And let's bow our heads for a moment and remember departed reader hurricane5, who held us HANS as one of the "one decision" stocks to own. This poor beverage stock has lost 50% of its value. It had an unbeliveable run, but you just knew this thing couldn't sustain itself.
In closing, take a look at LEH. This stock is so typical of what I see right now. A double top which could be taken out and blow all the bears away. Or, if it weakens anew, could be a fantastic short to have. But this election isn't going to clear up until Wednesday. Until then, we can only wait and see.
at 11/06/2006 26 insightful comments 
Links to this post
Friday, November 03, 2006
Sub-12K. Tim Says Yay.
The Dow was able to close for ten days in a row above the 12,000 level. Not today, though. We're back into 11,xxx territory. Let's hope it stays that way! For years!
As usual, I've got a number of charts to share with you that you might find of interest. First up is a long (you heard right) suggestion, symbol CRR. Looks pretty battered to me, and the swell in volume recently indicates a possible change in direction.
Now onto more familiar territory - the shorts! Here's FMX:
LLL looks good:
I like how MCK is playing against these Fib fans:
MTW looks like a good double top:
NVR is thinly traded, but a good topping pattern:
Finally, these's QQQQ. Check out the similarity between the two sections of the RSI indicator. To me, this suggests the QQQQs (and, therefore, the $NDX) are headed much lower.
at 11/03/2006 18 insightful comments Links to this post
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Five in a Row
Five down days on the Dow in a row. Nice. Let's hope for a sixth tomorrow. A solid week of downers would be sweet. Of course, all eyes are on the election next week. The market can have perverse and surprising reactions. A huge victory for the Dems would supposedly damage the market. But let's remember Clinton's 1992-2000 tenure wasn't exactly bad for stocks.
My $MSH puts are slowly gaining strength. There's a lot of room to tumble, but there's no earnest downward momentum yet.
The same holds true for the Russell 2000 ($RUT). Today's "spinning top" candlestick pattern indicates uncertainty.
For anyone bearish on gold, check out AEM. It looks really vulnerable to a swing down.
FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.
HYDL is a honey of a head and shoulders pattern. Full retracement has been completed.
Retailer Nordstrom (JWN) has decidedly busted through its supporting trendline and is high enough to be a relatively safe play.
lufk
The fog will hopefully clear by next Wednesday. Thanks for taking the time to stop by.
at 11/02/2006 10 insightful comments Links to this post