神马文学网064
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/29 19:46:16
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Sea Change
It was nice to see a good, solid down day. Particularly when the market blasted higher from the opening bell, riding on the wings of CSCO's strong earnings. The fact that the NASDAQ actually fell after such a strong opening is great. Green on the screen is a pleasant change these days.
The real change going on is in the political/social pulse of the country. 1994's Republican sweep into Congress preceded the monster bull market of 1995-2000. Conservative values, religion, the 'contract with America' - the whole schmear.
Now that the pendulum is starting to swing the other way, what do we have? Cover stories about aetheism, bestselling books about atheism, a very left-of-center Speaker of the House. It's like a mirror image of 1994. And don't you think the odds of a Democratic president in 2008 are pretty strong? The pendulum is swinging to the left, and I imagine it's going to be approaching socialism before it starts tipping the other way again.
How good do you think that's going to be for corporate profits? Can you imagine what kind of nuclear bomb will hit the market when the capital gains tax is eliminated and people must pay ordinary income on stock profits? After all, no more tax breaks for the rich!
Like I mentioned, the NASDAQ fell. The $NDX pierced its prior 100% Fib level (which, cough cough, I've conveniently skooched upward to today's high). I like the weakness today.
The Russell 2000, a perpetual favorite of mine, has puts which I've been gobbling up at these levels. Someone asked about IWM - to which I respond, yes, I like this for a short position. I wouldn't call it a head and shoulders, but I like how it is weakening.
I think I mentioned a couple of days back going long the $SOX. Nahhhhhh. I changed my mind and bought puts yesterday. I'm glad I did. This did well today, and it's got a really obvious stop price (and a really obvious this-was-the-right-choice price).
I've never drawn a trendline on an RSI until today, but it works rather well, don't you think?
The cool thing is that the $VIX is slowly but surely turning upward. A series of higher lows, marked by that ascending trendline, illustrates this. C'mon, $VIX!!!
Now for some specific short suggestions, all of which have put options available. AMG:
BA, which kissed the underbelly of its former trendline today:
FMX (no options on this, I don't think, but......):
HYDL, which busted its head and shoulders pattern, but still looks sweet:
TXT:
Hey, I could use another dose of Down tomorrow. We'll see.
at11/09/200613 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels:$ndx,$rut,$sox,$spx,$vix,amg,ba,fmx,hydl,txt
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
All News is Bullish News
Now that the Democrats have captured the House (and quite possibly the Senate), they've already started rehearsals for the new government's parade in January. I managed to get a clip.......
',1)">
I was watching the election returns until 4 this morning, and I kept watching the GLOBEX go lower, and lower, and lower. It was clear the market was going to open down hard. And in the back of my mind I kept thinking, "somehow or another, I bet this stupid market closes up for the day." And sure enough - a new high on the Dow! Disgusting, revolting, and sickening. I hate this market.
Bear markets aren't fiction. They really do happen sometimes. Let us wistfully enjoy the prices of yesteryear, such as the NASDAQ's plunge from 2000 to 2002.....
Boy, those were the days. But no more. You can see how the $VIX just keeps getting ground down to nothing. The last time the bears were partying was in June/July of this year. It's been unrelenting misery ever since.
The NASDAQ was especially strong today. It's about to push into wide open territory, with no recent overhead resistance. Cisco's strong earnings posted after the market's close today is only going to help the bulls.
The $NDX has a skosh more to go to get into the same "open air", but it's probably going to happen. At least I don't own $MSH or $NDX puts anymore (I dumped those yesterday morning).
The S&P 500's chart over the past ten years is a fascinating one. This chart still looks really toppy to me, pushing right up against the upper boundary of its ascending channel and smack dab in its retracement area. But, God almighty, if a massive sweep to the left in U.S. politics isn't going to ding the market, what is? It would honestly take a major terrorist attack, bigger even than 9/11, at this point.
The only slightly bright spot today was the $XAU (gold and silver index), on which I own puts. I've (badly) drawn the former head and shoulders pattern on this. One could be generous and call this a "complex" head and shoulders at this point. All the same, it's got a nice clean stop.
at11/08/200620 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:$compq,$ndx,$xau,elections,new high
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Red, Blue.......and Green
Let's start off with a stock market update from Eric Idle:
',2)">
Today was another rotten day for us poor, beleaguered bears. At least the bulls didn't get the satisfaction of chalking up another lifetime high at the closing bell. At this point, we can only wait and see what the morning brings once those "100% precincts reporting" notations are displayed. As of this writing, it's 0% reporting.
The S&P 500 is at a serious make-or-break time. If the market is strong tomorrow, and the S&P pushes above its recent high, we might as well hang it up until mid-January (at least). "Bullish" election results would pretty much be the final nail on the coffin.
The Transports are still in a bearish pattern, clearly showing lower highs and lower lows. As with all trends, this is breakable, but it remains intact for now.
The NASDAQ Composite pushed above its multi-year high today (on an intraday basis), and if the market is happy with the results of the elections, this could easily bound much higher. As for what defines a bullish result - - who knows. I can only imagine a Democrat sweep would be damaging. Just about anything else (Republican victory, gridlock) would probably mean more bull.
Interestingly, the Amex Major Market Index ($XMI) closed down today, in spite of a lift across the board on all other indices. This is quite a shooting star pattern we have here. You may recall I pointed to this index as bullish quite a while back.
During the summer, I had a great time shorting OIH and related stocks. It's not the slam-dunk that it was once, but there's definitely a pattern of lower lows and lower highs here (although it's softening). Shorting this with a stop at $140 seems like a decent bet.
Well, if we push higher tomorrow, I'll be tempted to stop blogging until the market gets fun again. But frankly I have too many readers at this point to walk away. So.....on with the show, I suppose!
at11/07/200621 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:$compq,$spx,$xmi,elections,oih
Newer PostsOlder PostsHome
Sea Change
It was nice to see a good, solid down day. Particularly when the market blasted higher from the opening bell, riding on the wings of CSCO's strong earnings. The fact that the NASDAQ actually fell after such a strong opening is great. Green on the screen is a pleasant change these days.
The real change going on is in the political/social pulse of the country. 1994's Republican sweep into Congress preceded the monster bull market of 1995-2000. Conservative values, religion, the 'contract with America' - the whole schmear.
Now that the pendulum is starting to swing the other way, what do we have? Cover stories about aetheism, bestselling books about atheism, a very left-of-center Speaker of the House. It's like a mirror image of 1994. And don't you think the odds of a Democratic president in 2008 are pretty strong? The pendulum is swinging to the left, and I imagine it's going to be approaching socialism before it starts tipping the other way again.
How good do you think that's going to be for corporate profits? Can you imagine what kind of nuclear bomb will hit the market when the capital gains tax is eliminated and people must pay ordinary income on stock profits? After all, no more tax breaks for the rich!
Like I mentioned, the NASDAQ fell. The $NDX pierced its prior 100% Fib level (which, cough cough, I've conveniently skooched upward to today's high). I like the weakness today.
The Russell 2000, a perpetual favorite of mine, has puts which I've been gobbling up at these levels. Someone asked about IWM - to which I respond, yes, I like this for a short position. I wouldn't call it a head and shoulders, but I like how it is weakening.
I think I mentioned a couple of days back going long the $SOX. Nahhhhhh. I changed my mind and bought puts yesterday. I'm glad I did. This did well today, and it's got a really obvious stop price (and a really obvious this-was-the-right-choice price).
I've never drawn a trendline on an RSI until today, but it works rather well, don't you think?
The cool thing is that the $VIX is slowly but surely turning upward. A series of higher lows, marked by that ascending trendline, illustrates this. C'mon, $VIX!!!
Now for some specific short suggestions, all of which have put options available. AMG:
BA, which kissed the underbelly of its former trendline today:
FMX (no options on this, I don't think, but......):
HYDL, which busted its head and shoulders pattern, but still looks sweet:
TXT:
Hey, I could use another dose of Down tomorrow. We'll see.
at11/09/200613 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:$ndx,$rut,$sox,$spx,$vix,amg,ba,fmx,hydl,txt
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
All News is Bullish News
Now that the Democrats have captured the House (and quite possibly the Senate), they've already started rehearsals for the new government's parade in January. I managed to get a clip.......
',1)">
I was watching the election returns until 4 this morning, and I kept watching the GLOBEX go lower, and lower, and lower. It was clear the market was going to open down hard. And in the back of my mind I kept thinking, "somehow or another, I bet this stupid market closes up for the day." And sure enough - a new high on the Dow! Disgusting, revolting, and sickening. I hate this market.
Bear markets aren't fiction. They really do happen sometimes. Let us wistfully enjoy the prices of yesteryear, such as the NASDAQ's plunge from 2000 to 2002.....
Boy, those were the days. But no more. You can see how the $VIX just keeps getting ground down to nothing. The last time the bears were partying was in June/July of this year. It's been unrelenting misery ever since.
The NASDAQ was especially strong today. It's about to push into wide open territory, with no recent overhead resistance. Cisco's strong earnings posted after the market's close today is only going to help the bulls.
The $NDX has a skosh more to go to get into the same "open air", but it's probably going to happen. At least I don't own $MSH or $NDX puts anymore (I dumped those yesterday morning).
The S&P 500's chart over the past ten years is a fascinating one. This chart still looks really toppy to me, pushing right up against the upper boundary of its ascending channel and smack dab in its retracement area. But, God almighty, if a massive sweep to the left in U.S. politics isn't going to ding the market, what is? It would honestly take a major terrorist attack, bigger even than 9/11, at this point.
The only slightly bright spot today was the $XAU (gold and silver index), on which I own puts. I've (badly) drawn the former head and shoulders pattern on this. One could be generous and call this a "complex" head and shoulders at this point. All the same, it's got a nice clean stop.
at11/08/200620 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:$compq,$ndx,$xau,elections,new high
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Red, Blue.......and Green
Let's start off with a stock market update from Eric Idle:
',2)">
Today was another rotten day for us poor, beleaguered bears. At least the bulls didn't get the satisfaction of chalking up another lifetime high at the closing bell. At this point, we can only wait and see what the morning brings once those "100% precincts reporting" notations are displayed. As of this writing, it's 0% reporting.
The S&P 500 is at a serious make-or-break time. If the market is strong tomorrow, and the S&P pushes above its recent high, we might as well hang it up until mid-January (at least). "Bullish" election results would pretty much be the final nail on the coffin.
The Transports are still in a bearish pattern, clearly showing lower highs and lower lows. As with all trends, this is breakable, but it remains intact for now.
The NASDAQ Composite pushed above its multi-year high today (on an intraday basis), and if the market is happy with the results of the elections, this could easily bound much higher. As for what defines a bullish result - - who knows. I can only imagine a Democrat sweep would be damaging. Just about anything else (Republican victory, gridlock) would probably mean more bull.
Interestingly, the Amex Major Market Index ($XMI) closed down today, in spite of a lift across the board on all other indices. This is quite a shooting star pattern we have here. You may recall I pointed to this index as bullish quite a while back.
During the summer, I had a great time shorting OIH and related stocks. It's not the slam-dunk that it was once, but there's definitely a pattern of lower lows and lower highs here (although it's softening). Shorting this with a stop at $140 seems like a decent bet.
Well, if we push higher tomorrow, I'll be tempted to stop blogging until the market gets fun again. But frankly I have too many readers at this point to walk away. So.....on with the show, I suppose!
at11/07/200621 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:$compq,$spx,$xmi,elections,oih
Newer PostsOlder PostsHome