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Friday, December 22, 2006
Loving the Lump
Yesterday I wrote....
I was hoping for a nice nasty surprise from RIMM, but they had blowout earnings and their stock is way, way high in after hours trading. I wouldn't drop dead of shock if they ended the day down tomorrow. It's just a hunch. Maybe a completely stupid hunch, but a hunch nonetheless. I'm hanging on to these March puts.
Well, well, well. The hunch was right. RIMM was in record high territory after hours yesterday. Once reality started to sink in, the gains diminished, and the stock fell on the day. Let me be clear here: for a stock to go down significantly on a day when blow-out earnings are reported, blow-out projections are made, and record highs are made prior to the open........well, sweet dreams are made of this.

I also still like the look of MCK. Maybe my hunches have a bit more credibility now. Plus the Fib fans.

Bank of America isn't going to have a Google-sized (anticipated) fall. It's a major bank, after all. But I think the best days of this stock are through.

$XAU has a lot of room left to free-fall.

And although I'm not in an $MSH position (I'm in $NDX), this is a good prospective put purchase. Very toppy.

This has nothing to do with trading, but I loved the Lisa Lampanelli bit of the William Shatner roast. As a lifelong Trek fan (of the Original Series......please!) I found the entire event a kick. You froo-froo types, don't bother. But if you want a good laugh and don't mind the raunch, here you go.....
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Oh, and Merry Christmas, everyone. Let us look forward to a year of delivering lumps of coal to bulls - both naughty and nice - in the year ahead.
at12/22/200630 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:$msh,$xau,bac,mck,rimm
Thursday, December 21, 2006
RIMM Job
It's nice to feel on top of the market again. It's no disaster for the bulls, but days like this give one hope.
My shorts in $XAU (gold/silver), which a lot of commenters have slammed the past couple of weeks, are doing well. $XAU kind of gave up the ghost today. No more petite inching down. It fell in a meaningful way. This makes the likelihood of a meaty fall a lot stronger.

High-priced stocks like CME can lose double digits of dollars each day, which makes them great for put owners. It's getting closer to the trendline. Can it crack through?

TSO's top looks lovelier every passing day.

I got snookered into thinking Sears (SHLD) was going to be a superstock. But as I've reminded myself, and others - - it's Sears. Are polyester pantsuits coming back? Does every household need ten new lawnmowers? I confess I have no position in this stock, but I sure envy you put-holders out there.

The disgusting, greedy pigs at Goldman Sachs that have bled obscene bonuses out of their firm this year have been getting a lot of press. Don't you think investment banks have jumped the shark by now? I sure do.

Yep, that twinkle in my eye is Google, everyone's favorite company ever to exist. Chip, chip, chip. Lower each day. So much for the hockey stick.

FDX continues to be weak, even after the impact of earnings was absorbed yesterday.

I was hoping for a nice nasty surprise from RIMM, but they had blowout earnings and their stock is way, way high in after hours trading. I wouldn't drop dead of shock if they ended the day down tomorrow. It's just a hunch. Maybe a completely stupid hunch, but a hunch nonetheless. I'm hanging on to these March puts.
at12/21/200617 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:$xau,cme,goog,gs,shld,tso
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Baby Got Redback
As regular readers know, although I'm a bear (in both real life and my Second Life), I do publish bullish charts some of the time (maybe 10%). One stock I've consistently point out as having a handsomely bullish pattern is RBAK, which I first mentioned over a year ago in mySeptember 2005 post. At the time, RBAK was about $9 per share. It was purchased today for $25 per share, and the stock price actually closed north of that.
The calls I bought on RBAK a month or so ago more than tripled in price over a small amount of time. Now this is a beautiful example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern in action!

What's funny to me is some highly-paid analyst published a report in the wee hours of this morning stating, in brief, (1) RBAK had reached its target price, so they were downgrading it (2) a buyout was not likely "in the near future" (which, given the outcome, I guess meant within the next 30 minutes following the publication of the report).. Wow, what an embarassment. Analysts have never been worth a sack of crap, have they?

The $INDU reached yet another all-time intraday high today (turd monkeys!) but closed down a bit. The divergence between the RSI and the price action is absolutely huge. Come ON, you stupid market, would you fall already? Jesus H. Christ!

The NASDAQ continues to look weaker than the U.S. stock market as a whole.

...and the Dow Transports continue to act (alone) in a truly bearish fashion.

CDX, a short I've suggested before, had a nice down day - - I suppose led by FedEx's action.

And speaking of FedEx, another item I've suggested shorting, it had a nice down day, although it certainly was no demolition of the stock. These things can take time, I suppose.

One could make a flimsy argument that GOOG is sporting a petite head and shoulders pattern. I wouldn't even mention it. Oops, too late. Anyway, I have high (low) hopes for GOOG in January.

Finally, TSO continues to be well behaved. This looks like a nice, fat toppy pattern to me.

Someone commented (and let me say, I really appreciate the comments section - - I read it religiously) that yesterday's graph of the coming disaster in Medicare has nothing to do with stocks or the financial markets. I dunno, I think the insolvency of the United States will surely be germane at some point.
Oh, I forgot. Liquidity. There's liquidity. And all that money needs a place to go. (Where it came from, no one knows - - actually they do - - leverage, leverage, leverage. Which, oh, is a two-edged sword). Anyway, liquidity is the current This Time It's Different argument. Just like how the Internet's productivity enhancement changed everything and justified the valuations of 1999.
People just never learn. Never. I simply cannot wait for those Liquidity twits to get blown to hell. Then at least we can wait a few years before we have to endure them again with another fabricated story.
at12/20/200617 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:$indu,$ndx,analysts,csx,fdx,goog,rbak,tso
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