神马文学网044
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Friday, February 09, 2007
Well Put
Good day on the market today, bears. This time, after a look at a couple of indexes, I'm going to show just stocks on which I think puts might be a lucrative position. They have a number of properties in common - - the stocks are high priced (meaning the options can get really juicy). They have options with decent volume. And they seem to be running out of steam.
The stock market finally - FINALLY! - made its mind up on direction today, and it was down. As you can clearly see from the horizontal line of support, the moment it pushed through, it was party time.
Looking at the past several months, you can very clearly see that early in this bull phase the price action and RSI were lined up (green lines) and yet, for a couple of months or more, RSI and price action have been absolutely divergent (red lines).
Going back to an even wider time range, you can see how lofty the S&P 500 is right now. Which is why my puts went up so fast today.
But let's not get too excited yet (lest I get another cowardly voicemail from an Australian hermaphrodite). There have been many times that the market has taken a quick, exciting drop. I've marked each of them here with red lines. And each time, it shakes it off and simply moves on to new lifetime highs. So I'm willing to concede this may be fake-out number twenty thousand and six.
The rest of today's entry is just stock charts, pure and simple - - again, with the focus being on puts. I've mentioned many of these before, and own puts on most or all of them. Goldman Sachs (GS):
Cabot (COG):
Capital One (COF):
Bear Stearns (BSC):
AutoZone (AZO):
Merrill Lynch (MER):
MicroStrategy (MSTR):
Research in Motion (RIMM):
Textron (TXT):
Exxon Mobil (XOM):
Have a good weekend. To most of you, at least.
at 2/09/2007 7 insightful comments 
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Thursday, February 08, 2007
Double Top
In honor of the late Anna Nicole Smith, we will direct our attention to another artificially-inflated bubble without much intellect behind it which no one thinks will die so young: the U.S. stock market.
The $VIX is forming a pretty decent inverted head and shoulders pattern. I've drawn the neckline here. Clearly it would be beneficial for the bears for the $VIX to push its way above this neckline, thus completing the pattern.
The S&P 500 remains beneath its broken trendline. The huge divergence between the price action and the indicator is quite intact, with today finally registering a small downturn in the market after several days of doing basically nothing.
Much the same can be said of the Dow 30.
John Deere (DE) is at the top of a sharping ascending channel.
And Cummins (CMI), mentioned here recently, has put in a possible double top.
I put Boston Properties here (BXP) not to suggest it, but merely to marvel. It's incredible - simply incredible. Much came be same for any of the components of the Real Estate group (wasn't there supposed to be a deflating bubble? Guess that's just residential....)
Bear Stearns (BSC) is finally losing a bit of its steam.
Aetna is obeying its Fibonacci retracement very nicely.
Reynolds Aluminum (RAI), also mentioned here recently, is dipping.
MTW seems to be in a series of lower highs and lower lows - often the makings of a good short position.
MTH looks like it has fully retraced to the neckline of its head and shoulder pattern.
And the same can be said of MDC.
The DJ Real Estate (IYR) equity is breathtakingly high - - which just goes to show stocks sometimes have no trouble defying their resistance lines!
at 2/08/2007 13 insightful comments Links to this post
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
The Chunda from Down Unda
I've been doing this ("this" being running a technology development team, charting, trading) for a very long time, and I've been writing this blog for about a year and a half (in fact, my 400th post is just a few days away). In all that time, nothing like this has ever happened, but..........
On my voicemail this morning was a 5 minute message from someone who reads this blog. Although, like an anonymous poster, he didn't have the gonads to say who he was, he left a scathing, angry, insulting message telling me at length how much he hated this blog. He even had his (presumed) girlfriend check out my picture to affirm that, yes, I'm dorky looking.
Ooooookay.
Listen, my Southern Hemisphere chum: you don't need to read this. To take the time to read my blog at length (including, according to his voicemail, my archives), seek out my phone number, call me, and waste five minutes of your life leaving a flame is curious, to say the least. Here's my advice: stop reading it. What you are doing now is the equivalent in logic of stepping in the same big pile of dog poo every afternoon and complaining about how it's bad for your shoes. Walk around it! If you don't like my poo, go somewhere else! Thank you!
Anyway.
At least that gave me something to talk about, because these markets are a real snooze. On Monday the Dow was up 8.25 points. On Tuesday, 4.57 points. Today, 0.56 points. Zero point five six points, people. Good God, someone do something.
In fact, just about the only chart I've got for you today is Anderson (ANDE), which I first mentioned as a bullish suggestion back on December 27th. With today's breakout, it looks better than ever!
Sigh. I'd love to show more charts, but it would just be more of the same. Maybe something will rattle and roll tomorrow. Until then.........g'day!
at 2/07/2007 19 insightful comments Links to this post