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Monday, May 07, 2007
The Pain Grows Stronger/Watch It Grin
Years ago I remember seeing a Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert had yet another get-rich-quick scheme. This one was a generic newspaper which featured headlines about "Unrest in Middle East" and "Government Proposes More Taxes". It was basically a newspaper you could read any day for the rest of your life, and it would always be true.
Much the same can be said of the market - at least in terms of the Dow 30. I'm starting to lose track. What would today make it......the last 27 out of 30 sessions up? Something like that. It's starting not to matter. As you can see from the graph below, it essentially never goes down.
I am staying far away from SPX puts (or DIA puts, for that matter). The only index put I've been accumulating is on the Russell 2000. Earlier in this cycle, the Russell was strong than the Dow, but recently, it's been falling behind. It also has the added advantage of falling faster on the rare occasions when the market is weak (notice the recent dip, shown in blue).
A closer look at recent activity illustrates the relative weakness better. Today the Dow was up yet another 50, whereas the Russell - a broader index - actually fell.
The NASDAQ Composite is also relatively low on steam compared with the mega-caps.
And the $XMI is continuing the exhibit the rather fascinating "hug just beneath the broken trendline" phenomenon.
I have no position in the CME, but it's interesting how this is shaping up recently. It's not really a head and shoulders pattern, but it definitely looks toppy.
My puts on INFY did pretty well today. Infosys (INFY) fell on a good pick-up in volume.
Symbol MEE is a pretty massive head and shoulders pattern, although frankly patterns this big don't have as much weight with me, since it has already kind of done the retracement-and-fall-again dance. But your eyes have every right to make an independent judgment.
Symbol MS is doing the same shtick as $XMI.
Airline RYAAY finally took a tumble, losing about 20% of its value in the past week or so. It was really overheated earlier, and I don't see any clear pattern at this point.
Long suggestion SCHN continues to do well, although I'm sure the massive buyout news regarding AL/AA had everything to do with today's rise.
at5/07/200723 insightful comments
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Labels:bid,cme,infy,mee,msft,new highs,ryaay,schn
Friday, May 04, 2007
Sigh....
OK, this up-every-day thing is getting realllllllly old.
I'm started to become disenchanted with the Russell 2000. I wasn't surprised at the recent recovery. In fact, I sold a huge block of puts just before the bounce higher started (thank God).
What bugs me is that the bounce-back pushed higher than the point I thought things would soften up again. The entire area I've shaded in green here (a closer view) is basically the "WTF???" zone. Particularly the strong finish during the last few minutes of today. Disgusting.
The $XAU is sporting a handsome shooting star, and although I've had no position in this for a while, I picked up some puts on it today. Because of the behavior of the market these days, I've focused on deep in-the-money, far-out expiration puts. Low risk, low volatility (and consequently lower profits should a miracle occur and things actually start heading down one day).
I mentioned CRDN yesterday as a possible long. The awaited breakout took place today, although on unspectacular volume.
ONT, mentioned many times here as a long, had a terrific day. The volume in the past few weeks is sensational.
Akamai (AKAM) might be pushing back to a neckline, but this isn't a perfect head and shoulder, so no position yet. The right shoulder is higher than the left, and I tend to be a purist about these things.
Jones Soda (JSDA) got whacked today. Even so, it has a nice little head and shoulders pattern, and this could have another $8 to $10 to drop (based on classic measurement techniques).
The balance of today's offerings are basically "rollovers." That is, stocks I think have lost momentum and have a good chance of falling. They are......Caterpillar (CAT):
Hess (HES):
Noble Energy (NBL):
Potash (POT):
PSB:
I've had enough. Time to hang up the charts for the weekend.
at5/04/200730 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:$rut,$xau,akam,cat,crdn,hes,jsda,nbl,ont,pot,psb
We've Met Before
My Friday post will be late today. In the meantime........
',1)">
at5/04/20078 insightful comments Links to this post
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The Pain Grows Stronger/Watch It Grin
Years ago I remember seeing a Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert had yet another get-rich-quick scheme. This one was a generic newspaper which featured headlines about "Unrest in Middle East" and "Government Proposes More Taxes". It was basically a newspaper you could read any day for the rest of your life, and it would always be true.
Much the same can be said of the market - at least in terms of the Dow 30. I'm starting to lose track. What would today make it......the last 27 out of 30 sessions up? Something like that. It's starting not to matter. As you can see from the graph below, it essentially never goes down.
I am staying far away from SPX puts (or DIA puts, for that matter). The only index put I've been accumulating is on the Russell 2000. Earlier in this cycle, the Russell was strong than the Dow, but recently, it's been falling behind. It also has the added advantage of falling faster on the rare occasions when the market is weak (notice the recent dip, shown in blue).
A closer look at recent activity illustrates the relative weakness better. Today the Dow was up yet another 50, whereas the Russell - a broader index - actually fell.
The NASDAQ Composite is also relatively low on steam compared with the mega-caps.
And the $XMI is continuing the exhibit the rather fascinating "hug just beneath the broken trendline" phenomenon.
I have no position in the CME, but it's interesting how this is shaping up recently. It's not really a head and shoulders pattern, but it definitely looks toppy.
My puts on INFY did pretty well today. Infosys (INFY) fell on a good pick-up in volume.
Symbol MEE is a pretty massive head and shoulders pattern, although frankly patterns this big don't have as much weight with me, since it has already kind of done the retracement-and-fall-again dance. But your eyes have every right to make an independent judgment.
Symbol MS is doing the same shtick as $XMI.
Airline RYAAY finally took a tumble, losing about 20% of its value in the past week or so. It was really overheated earlier, and I don't see any clear pattern at this point.
Long suggestion SCHN continues to do well, although I'm sure the massive buyout news regarding AL/AA had everything to do with today's rise.
at5/07/200723 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:bid,cme,infy,mee,msft,new highs,ryaay,schn
Friday, May 04, 2007
Sigh....
OK, this up-every-day thing is getting realllllllly old.
I'm started to become disenchanted with the Russell 2000. I wasn't surprised at the recent recovery. In fact, I sold a huge block of puts just before the bounce higher started (thank God).
What bugs me is that the bounce-back pushed higher than the point I thought things would soften up again. The entire area I've shaded in green here (a closer view) is basically the "WTF???" zone. Particularly the strong finish during the last few minutes of today. Disgusting.
The $XAU is sporting a handsome shooting star, and although I've had no position in this for a while, I picked up some puts on it today. Because of the behavior of the market these days, I've focused on deep in-the-money, far-out expiration puts. Low risk, low volatility (and consequently lower profits should a miracle occur and things actually start heading down one day).
I mentioned CRDN yesterday as a possible long. The awaited breakout took place today, although on unspectacular volume.
ONT, mentioned many times here as a long, had a terrific day. The volume in the past few weeks is sensational.
Akamai (AKAM) might be pushing back to a neckline, but this isn't a perfect head and shoulder, so no position yet. The right shoulder is higher than the left, and I tend to be a purist about these things.
Jones Soda (JSDA) got whacked today. Even so, it has a nice little head and shoulders pattern, and this could have another $8 to $10 to drop (based on classic measurement techniques).
The balance of today's offerings are basically "rollovers." That is, stocks I think have lost momentum and have a good chance of falling. They are......Caterpillar (CAT):
Hess (HES):
Noble Energy (NBL):
Potash (POT):
PSB:
I've had enough. Time to hang up the charts for the weekend.
at5/04/200730 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:$rut,$xau,akam,cat,crdn,hes,jsda,nbl,ont,pot,psb
We've Met Before
My Friday post will be late today. In the meantime........
',1)">
at5/04/20078 insightful comments
Links to this postNewer PostsOlder PostsHome