到香港去买楼 China property

Sometimes the most obvious trades are the best. An investor buying the Hang Seng Property Index at the beginning of this year, reasoning that prices would be buoyed by strong Chinese demand and ultra-low interest rates imported through the US dollar peg, would be sitting on a 17 per cent gain. If that same investor then sold Shanghai property stocks, on the understanding that Beijing would intensify measures to keep prices in check, he or she would have dodged a 25 per cent fall, nearly three times worse than the benchmark.

有时候，最明摆着的交易就是最好的交易。如果一名投资者认定香港房价将受到中国强劲需求和联系汇率制导致的超低利率的提振，而在今年年初买入恒生地产指数，今天将坐收17%的涨幅。同样是这名投资者，如果他或她认定中国政府将强化措施抑制房价，而抛出上海股市的地产股，将因此躲过25%的跌幅（比大盘跌幅高出近3倍）。

Mainland property markets are no longer buzzing. The rate of year-on-year price increases for new urban residential builds has been falling since April, when it hit 15.4 per cent. In October, Beijing rents fell for the first time in 18 months. Newspaper editorials issue regular reminders that if increases in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements fail to dampen spirits, economic planners have some heavier-duty weapons – such as a property tax – in reserve. They have been generally successful in curbing exuberance. Since August 2005, when the official sale-price data series for 70 cities began, the average yearly rise has been 7 per cent, well inside the roughly 12 per cent annual increase in urban disposable incomes.

中国内地楼市已不再那么火爆。城市新建住宅销售价格同比涨幅自4月份触及15.4%的水平以来，一直在下降。10月份，北京房租价格出现18个月以来的首次下跌。报纸经常性的发表社论提醒人们，如果加息和上调银行存款准备金率不能冷却楼市，经济规划者们手中还备有某些更重量级的武器，例如房产税。在抑制房价过猛上涨方面，他们总体上是成功的。自2005年8月官方开始发布70个大中城市房屋销售价格数据系列以来，房价年均涨幅为7%，较城市居民可支配收入约12%的年均增幅低出不少。

Still, the likelihood of softening mainland markets increases the appeal of buying in Hong Kong, where regulators’ tightening efforts – such as withdrawing the entitlement to Hong Kong citizenship to foreign property buyers – have had little discernible effect. A 5 per cent fall in the broader Shanghai market on Friday, apparently prompted by fears of an acceleration in interest-rate rises, was not matched over the border, where property stocks accounted for four of the top nine risers. The obvious trade is still paying off

尽管如此，内地楼市放缓的可能性却加大了香港楼市的吸引力。香港监管部门收紧闸门的努力——例如取消授予外来购房者香港公民身份的政策——并没有收到什么明显效果。上周五，上海股市下跌了5%（显然是受投资者担心加息步伐加快的驱动）；香港股市的跌幅则相形见绌，而且在9只涨幅最大的股票中，地产股占了4只。明摆着的交易依然很合算。

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