神马文学网贝叶斯“预先假定”
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/28 04:29:52
Statistics and climatology
统计学和气候学
Gambling on tomorrow
我拿什么赌明天
Aug 16th 2007
From The Economist print edition
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9645336
Modelling the Earth's climate mathematically is hard already. Now a new difficulty is emerging
用数学方法为气候建模已然困难，现在新的难题又浮现出来
Illustration by Dettmer Otto
“SCIENCE” is a recently coined word. When the Royal Society, the world's oldest academy of the discipline, was founded in London in 1660, the subject was referred to as natural philosophy. In the 19th century, though, nature and philosophy went their separate ways as the natural philosophers grew in number, power and influence.
“science”（科学）是最近新创的一个词。1660年成立于伦敦的英国皇家学会（the Royal Society）是世界上历史最悠久的科学学会，在当时，science这一学科指的是自然哲学，不过到了19世纪，自然和哲学开始分道扬镳，因为自然哲学家的人数不断增长，其权威性和影响力也日愈显著。
Nevertheless, the link between the fields lingers on in the name of one of the Royal Society's journals, Philosophical Transactions. And appropriately, the latest edition of that publication, which is devoted to the science of climate modelling, is in part a discussion of the understanding and misunderstanding of the ideas of one particular 18th-century English philosopher, Thomas Bayes.
尽管如此，从英国皇家学会的一本期刊的名字“Philosophical Transactions”（哲学会报，现在均译为自然科学会报）可以看出，自然和哲学之间仍有着藕断丝连的联系。并且发表在最新一期杂志里关于气候建模科学的专题，也恰如其分地参与了一场对托马斯·贝叶斯（Thomas Bayes）（18世纪一位很特别的英国哲学家）理论在理解上正确与否的讨论。
Bayes was one of two main influences on the early development of probability theory and statistics. The other was Blaise Pascal, a Frenchman. But, whereas Pascal's ideas are simple and widely understood, Bayes's have always been harder to grasp.
对早期概率论和统计学发展具有重大影响的有两位科学家，贝叶斯是其中一位，另一位是法国的布雷泽·帕斯卡（Blaise Pascal）。不过帕斯卡的理论相对简单，也得到了普遍理解，而贝叶斯的理论人们一直很难领会。
Pascal's way of looking at the world was that of the gambler: each throw of the dice is independent of the previous one. Bayes's allows for the accumulation of experience, and its incorporation into a statistical model in the form of prior assumptions that can vary with circumstances. A good prior assumption about tomorrow's weather, for example, is that it will be similar to today's. Assumptions about the weather the day after tomorrow, though, will be modified by what actually happens tomorrow.
帕斯卡看世界的方式同赌徒赌博一样：每次掷骰子都与前一次毫无关系；贝叶斯则考虑到经验的积累，并且以能随客观情况而改变的预先假定的形式把经验纳入统计模型。例如，对明日天气的预先假定应类似于今天的天气，这样的预先假定才是有用的；而对后天天气的假定则应根据明天的实际天气情况进行修改。
Psychologically, people tend to be Bayesian—to the extent of often making false connections. And that risk of false connection is why scientists like Pascal's version of the world. It appears to be objective. But when models are built, it is almost impossible to avoid including Bayesian-style prior assumptions in them. By failing to acknowledge that, model builders risk making serious mistakes.
从心理上来说，人们更倾向于贝叶斯的理论，甚至到了经常做出错误联系的程度，而这种风险则令科学家们更加偏好帕斯卡的观点——它似乎挺客观。但是模型建立起来后，几乎不可避免地把贝叶斯的预先假定理论也纳入了模型中。而如果没有认识到这一点，模型的构建者们有可能犯下严重的错误。
Assume nothing
无用的假定
In one sense it is obvious that assumptions will affect outcomes—another reason Bayes is not properly acknowledged. That obviousness, though, buries deeper subtleties. In one of the papers in Philosophical Transactions David Stainforth of Oxford University points out a pertinent example.
从某种意义上来说，假定显然会影响结果，这也是贝叶斯理论未得到完全认可的另一个原因。不过，这种显然的影响把更深的微妙之处掩藏了起来，在《自然科学会报》的一篇论文中，牛津大学的David Stainforth举出了一个恰当中肯的例子。
Climate models have lots of parameters that are represented by numbers—for example, how quickly snow crystals fall from clouds, or for how long they reside within those clouds. Actually, these are two different ways of measuring the same thing, so whether a model uses one or the other should make no difference to its predictions. And, on a single run, it does not. But models are not given single runs. Since the future is uncertain, they are run thousands of times, with different values for the parameters, to produce a range of possible outcomes. The outcomes are assumed to cluster around the most probable version of the future.
气候模型中有大量用数值表示的参数，例如雪花的结晶体脱离云层的速度、或者说它们在云层中会停留多长时间。事实上，这是测量同一事物属性的两种不同方法，所以模型中使用任何一种数值对其预测结果应该是没有区别的。是的，只用一次没有影响，但是模型并不是只用一次的，由于未来的不确定性，模型会运行数千次，每次都为参数提供不同的数值，从而产生一系列可能的结果，人们假定这些结果都在未来最可能的天气状况范围附近。
The particular range of values chosen for a parameter is an example of a Bayesian prior assumption, since it is derived from actual experience of how the climate behaves—and may thus be modified in the light of experience. But the way you pick the individual values to plug into the model can cause trouble.
为参数选择某一特定范围的数值正是贝叶斯预先假定理论的运用实例，因为这些数值来源于气候变化的实际经历，从而也可以根据实际情况进行修改。但是，如何为模型选择特定数值的方法有可能带来一些问题。
They might, for example, be assumed to be evenly spaced, say 1,2,3,4. But in the example of snow retention, evenly spacing both rate-of-fall and rate-of-residence-in-the-clouds values will give different distributions of result. That is because the second parameter is actually the reciprocal of the first. To make the two match, value for value, you would need, in the second case, to count 1, ½, ?, ¼—which is not evenly spaced. If you use evenly spaced values instead, the two models' outcomes will cluster differently.
例如，我们可以选择一系列等差数值，比方说1、2、3、4，但是在雪花结晶体一例中，以等差方式分别取得脱离云层的速度值和在云层中停留的时间长度值，将得出不同分布范围的预测结果，这是因为上述第二个参数其实是第一个参数的倒数。所以为了让两个参数互相对应，一对一，就需要对第二个参数按1、½、?、¼的间隔取值——这样就不是等差排列了。而如果均采用等差数值，两个模型得出的结果就不在同一个范围内。
Climate models have hundreds of parameters that might somehow be related in this sort of way. To be sure you are seeing valid results rather than artefacts of the models, you need to take account of all the ways that can happen.
气候模型中还有数百个参数，它们都可能以某种方式相互关联，就象上例所述一样。为了确保从模型中得到真实而非伪造的结果，就必须考虑所有可能发生的相互关系。
That logistical nightmare is only now being addressed, and its practical consequences have yet to be worked out. But because of their philosophical training in the rigours of Pascal's method, the Bayesian bolt-on does not come easily to scientists. As the old saw has it, garbage in, garbage out. The difficulty comes when you do not know what garbage looks like.
现在，关于气候建模时令人痛苦的计算问题只不过引起了人们的注意，而其实际带来的结果尚有待上下求索找出答案。但是由于帕斯卡定理严格的哲学思想，贝叶斯定理中的紧密相关（bolt-on）概念并不能轻易让科学家们所接受。正如那句古老的谚语所说，进去的是垃圾，出来的当然也是垃圾，而如果我们不知道垃圾长什么样，那么麻烦就来了。
发表于10:39 | 阅读全文 | 评论 1 | 编辑 | 分享 0Joost：让ISP忧心忡忡
2007-08-24
[2007.06.07]Overdoing it?Overdoing it?
过火？
Jun 7th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Networking: Internet-service providers are worried that new online-video services, such as Joost, will overload their networks
网络：因特网服务提供商担忧它们的网络会瘫痪在例如Joost之类的新兴在线视频服务之下
WHEN Niklas Zennström and Janus Friis announce a new venture, the world takes notice. As the duo behind KaZaA, a file-sharing network that was widely used to trade music, and Skype, a free internet-phone service, they have already shaken up the music and telecoms industries. So when they took the wraps off their latest project, a television-over-internet service called Joost, it looked as though the television industry might be the next to suffer. Yet rather than adopting the defensive stance that has often characterised traditional media's response to new technology, the likes of Sony, Viacom and Turner Broadcasting have signed deals with Joost to provide the service with content.
当Niklas Zennström和Janus Friis宣布一项新的风险投资计划后，全世界都关注起来。KaZaA是一个广泛用于音乐共享的文件共享网络，Skype则是一种免费网络电话服务，两个都出自这两个人之手。通过KaZaA和Skype的二重唱，他们已经震动了音乐和电信产业。他们的最新项目是名为Joost的网络电视服务，因此，当他俩揭开最新项目的面纱时，看上去电视行业可能会成为下一个受到冲击的行业。但是，不像传统媒体通常那样采用防卫的姿态应对新技术，像索尼、Viacom和 Turner广播这样的大公司的应对手段则是已经向Joost发出可以为其提供素材服务的友好信号。
As a result it is the rather less glamorous internet-service providers (ISPs) that are having sleepless nights. Frederick de Wahl, Joost's boss, says software companies have been waiting for the internet's infrastructure to reach sufficient “maturity” before trying to pipe full-screen television over the patchwork of technologies that are used to deliver broadband to homes. Joost uses a proprietary peer-to-peer (P2P) protocol that pipes data to viewers at a rate of 350 megabytes per hour. But networks are now up to the job, and Joost is expecting to amass millions of users, if not tens of millions, within the year. “It is a bandwidth-intensive product, that much is obvious,” says Mr de Wahl. ISPs, he says, should be “aware and prepared”.
结果，轮到一向缺乏魅力的网络服务提供商（ISPs）睡不安稳了。Joost的老板Frederick de Wahl声称在通过将曾经用在传输宽带到户上的技术拼凑起来，用以尝试传送全屏电视信号之前，软件公司已经在等待因特网的基础设施足够“成熟”。 Joost采用一种拥有专利的P2P（点对点）协议，可以以每小时350兆字节的速度向观众传送数据。但现在的网络已经可以胜任这项任务，因此Joost 期望在一年内，就算不能聚集数千万的用户，至少也要聚集数百万。“很明显，这是一项非常占用带宽的服务”de Wahl先生这样说道。他认为，ISPs应该“意思到需求并且准备好”。
Some of the companies that run the telecoms networks over which Joost and other bandwidth-hungry services hope to run are less confident that the internet's foundations are ready to bear the strain. Concern over the internet's ability to handle large amounts of video has opened a niche for companies that offer guaranteed network links that run alongside, but separately from, the internet. PacketExchange, for example, trumpets its service as a “faster, safer and more reliable alternative to the public internet”. Worries about overtaxed networks are also prompting outright bans on internet video. America's armed forces recently began blocking access to video services such as YouTube and MySpace from their internal networks, because of bandwidth limitations at their internet gateway.
一些运营电信网络的公司都对因特网基础设施是否准备好了承担带宽压力缺乏自信，Joost和其他类似带宽要求较高服务希望在它们的网络之上开展。对因特网处理大量视频能力的关注，为独立但是脱离因特网提供可靠网络链接的公司提供了一个不大的机遇。例如，PacketExchange宣传它的服务为“与选择公共网络相比，更快，更安全并且更可靠”。关于网络会负担过重的担忧同样促成了对网络视频的全面禁令。由于它们因特网网关的带宽限制，美国陆海空三军最近开始阻塞来自它们内部网络的，对例如YouTube和MySpace之类视频服务器地访问请求。
ISPs are particularly worried. P2P applications such as Joost are used by less than 5% of a typical ISP's subscriber base, but they account for over half the total traffic. Comcast, an American cable operator, has been criticised for cutting off intensive P2P-using “bandwidth hogs”, even though it refuses to specify exactly what it regards as acceptable usage limits.
ISPs都忧心忡忡。典型的ISP用户基础中，只有不到5%的用户会使用例如Joost之类的P2P应用，但他们却占用了过半的网络总流量。一个美国电缆经营公司Comcast，对限制大量使用P2P提出了批评，大量使用P2P被称作“独占带宽”，但即使如此，其也拒绝对可接受的使用限制的确切要求进行详细说明。
Many ISPs have taken the less drastic measure of “throttling” the download speeds available to their heaviest users at peak times, which are between 4pm and midnight—in other words, prime-time for television. Virgin Media, a British ISP that recently introduced throttling, offers a maximum download speed of 20 megabits per second, but this is reduced once a three-gigabyte limit has been exceeded. If the connection is running at full capacity, that will take 20 minutes.
在流量最高峰的时段，许多ISP对流量最大的一部分用户的可用下在速度进行程度上不那么剧烈的“抑制”。这段时间为下午四点到午夜，换句话说，就是电视上的黄金时段。英国的ISP商，Virgin Media，最近开始限制行动，仅提供每秒20兆比特的最大下载速度，但一旦阻塞的流量超过3GB，这个限速就会取消。如果连接一直在最大容量下传输， 20分钟就会达到3GB的额度。
If Joost and other P2P video services become popular, they may prompt ISPs to change their business models. They might, for example, require users who wish to use such services to sign up for special service plans, presumably at a higher price, that allow such use and, perhaps, give priority to P2P traffic to ensure stutter-free video streaming. “There's got to be more realism—we may be coming to the end of one model of working,” says Kevin Baughan, Virgin Media's technical-strategy director. Since many ISPs also offer video services of their own they are unlikely to look kindly upon free services carried over their pipes.
如果Joost和其他P2P视频服务流行起来，它们可能会促使ISP改变它们的商业模式。例如，ISP可能会要求想要使用这类服务的用户签署特殊的服务协议，协议会允许这类服务的使用，但应该会需要更高的价格，可能也会为用户提供P2P通信的优先权以保证视频不会缓冲。“事实变得更加显示，我们应该到了结束一种工作模式的时候了”，Virgin Media的技术战略主管Kevin Baughan这样说道。由于许多ISP自己同样也提供视频服务，它们自然不愿将在自己的链路上传送的免费服务看作好事。
The question is whether blocking P2P traffic altogether would be legal. Some telecoms companies have blocked customers from making voice-over-internet calls over their broadband connections, because they are worried about how internet telephony will affect the money they make from traditional phone calls. In some countries internet telephony is outlawed for this very reason. But American regulators ruled that this practice was unacceptable when Madison River, a rural operator, tried it in 2005. And in 2006 after a Chilean operator, Telefónica Chile, tried to block Skype, a court ruled that its action was anti-competitive. It is not hard to imagine the same sorts of arguments being applied to video services.
问题是完全的阻塞P2P流量是否合法。由于担心网络电话会影响它们来自传统电话的盈利，一些电信公司已经阻塞了客户通过它们的宽带链接拨打网络语音电话。在一些国家，网络电话由于这样的非常原因被视作触犯法律。但当一位乡村网管，Madison River试图在2005年拨打网络电话时，美国立法者只是规定这种行为是不受欢迎的。在2006年，一位智利网管Telefónica Chile，试图阻塞Skype之后，法院规定这种行为为反竞争的。不难想象，同样的争议肯定会出现在视频服务上。
Mr de Wahl says his company is happy to work with ISPs to overcome problems, and he is confident Joost is not about to break the internet. But he is prepared for conflict. “I'm sure some people are going to try and block us,” he says. But he notes that similar worries arose with previous internet technologies, such as newsgroups, the web and file-sharing, all of which involved big increases in the amount of network traffic. “I'm not saying this isn't going to take some new infrastructure,” he says. “But it's happened before, and the internet is still here.”
de Wahl先生声称他的公司很乐意与ISP合作解决这些问题，同时他也很自信Joost不会破坏因特网。但他也对可能的冲突有所准备。他说道，“我很肯定将会有一些人试图阻碍我们。”但他也注意到，之前的网络技术在当时同样也引起了类似的担忧，例如新闻组，web技术和文件共享，这些每一个受带来了网络流量的大幅增加。“我不是说这不需要增加新的基础设施，”de Wahl先生说道。“但同样的事情以前发生过，而且因特网通过了考验，仍然完好无缺。”发表于10:38 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0
巴西的能源政策：盈中有缺
2007-08-24
[2007.08.16] Scarcity in the midst of surplusBrazil's energy policy
巴西的能源政策
Scarcity in the midst of surplus
盈中有缺
Aug 16th 2007 | PORTO VELHO （波多韦柳，朗多尼亚Rondônia州首府）
From The Economist print edition
http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9660102
Thanks partly to ethanol from sugar cane, Brazil aims to be an energy superpower. But can it keep its own lights on?
巴西志在成为超级能源大国，这多少要归功于从甘蔗中提取的酒精，但是巴西自己的灯能一直亮着吗？
Corbis（图片来自Corbis）
THE president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has just returned from a five-country tour taking in Mexico and Central America, where he touted Brazil's claims to be an energy superpower. Blessed with sunshine, watered by huge rivers and close to self-sufficiency in oil, Brazil's energy potential is indeed enormous. But for various reasons, ranging from government lethargy to environmental lobbies, it runs a serious risk of energy shortages at home.
巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）刚刚结束了对拉美五国的访问回国，在此期间他大力宣扬了巴西要成为超级能源大国的主张。上天赋予的灿烂阳光、壮观大河提供的充足水源，以及几近自给自足的石油，这些确实都令巴西的能源潜力巨大。但是，从政府的昏昏噩噩到环境保护者的游说，多种原因使巴西国内面临能源短缺的严重危险。
Acende Brasil, an electricity-industry body, predicts a 28-32% chance of blackouts by 2012 if the economy grows at 4.8% a year (the government's forecast is 5%). Officials dismiss this as alarmist. But Lula is worried enough to have attended a recent meeting of his for the first time.
电力行业机构Acende Brasil预测，如果经济以每年4.8%（政府的估计是5%）的速度增长，那么到2012年巴西发生大停电的机会将高达28-32%。官员们都认为这是杞人忧天拒不接受，但是卢拉对此十分担心，并且破例第一次参加了巴西国家能源政策委员会（National Energy Policy Council）的最近一期会议。
Even if economic growth disappoints, power could still run short. At present, four-fifths of Brazil's electricity comes from hydroelectric dams. But at times of high demand or low rainfall, hydropower needs topping up with thermal supplies, mostly natural gas. About half of the natural gas consumed in Brazil comes from Bolivia. Relations between the two countries have been tense since Bolivia declared the nationalisation of the Bolivian operations of Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil and gas company, last year.
即使经济的增长速度未能如愿，电力依然会出现短缺。目前，巴西五分之四的电力来自水力发电站，但是在电力需求高或降雨量较少时，必须为水力发电机提供充足的热能，这其中主要是天然气。巴西所消耗的天然气中大约有一半来自玻利维亚，而自从去年玻利维亚宣布对Petrobras（巴西国家石油和天然气公司）在玻境内的运营实行国有化以来，两国关系就一直是箭在弦上。
[译注：2006年5月1日，玻利维亚总统莫拉莱斯派遣军队接管玻利维亚境内所有的天然气田（包括Petrobras旗下的两座炼油厂），宣布对油气产业进行国有化改造。]
Petrobras has also had problems in ensuring consistent production from its gasfields at home. This month the company admitted that there would be a shortfall in promised deliveries, earning a fine of $90m from the electricity regulator. Uncertainty over future gas supplies meant that at a government auction for new electricity-generation plants held last month only oil-fired projects were proposed.
Petrobras的问题不止于此，它还要确保巴西国内气田能够保持稳定的生产。该公司本月承认，它们无法实现所承诺的供电量，为此要承担电监局处以的9千万美元罚金。由于对未来天然气供应失去信心，在上月举行的新发电厂政府拍卖会上，只有以石油为燃料的发电厂得到了提名。
The government's hopes are pinned on two big projects, both of which have their critics. It recently gave the go-ahead for a third nuclear reactor at Angra dos Reis. Even more controversially, Ibama, the environmental agency, has given approval for two new dams on the Madeira river in the state of Rondônia.
巴西政府把希望错误地放在两个大项目上，这两个项目均已遭到了批评。不久前，该国恢复了在安格拉（Angra dos Reis）建造第三个核反应堆的计划。而更具争议的是，巴西环境保护机构Ibama（巴西环境与可再生资源委员会）竟然批准了在朗多尼亚州（Rondônia）的马代拉河（Madeira）上建造两个新水坝。
Supporters point out that the two dams will flood an area only one-sixth as large as that inundated by the giant Itaipu dam. But because of their modern turbines, and the strength of the Madeira's flow, they will generate electricity equal to 8% of Brazil's current output.
拥趸们指出，与巨大的Itaipu水坝相比这两个水坝的泄洪区面积仅为前者的六分之一，但是由于采用了现代化涡轮机，加上马代拉河的汹涌水流，两水坝的发电量将达到巴西目前电力产出的8%。
Opponents predict that the turbines will silt up and that the dams will produce only half the energy advertised. Wesley Ferreira Lopes, of the Movement for Dam Victims, claims that 5,000 families, rather than the official estimate of 900, will be displaced by the dam. His group promises an “uprising” to block the scheme.
而反对者们则预言，两个水坝的涡轮机将会被淤泥充塞，而其发电量仅为其宣传的一半。Movement for Dam Victims（水坝受害者运动）团体的Wesley Ferreira Lopes宣称，建造水坝将令5千家庭背井离乡，而非官方估计的9百，该团体誓言要发起一场“起义”以阻止这项计划。
If all goes to plan, the Madeira dams should be completed by 2012. But Roberto Smeraldi, of Friends of the Earth, says that every dam project in Amazonia has run between 60% and 120% over its planned construction time. The backup plan is to add thermal energy until the dams can be finished. But from where?
如果一切都能按部就班，马代拉水坝应于2012年竣工，不过地球之友（Friends of the Earth，著名的非政府环境组织）的Roberto Smeraldi指出，亚马逊河上每一次的水坝建设项目都未能在其计划时间内完成，均超出了60%到120%，而后续的计划就是增加热能直至水坝建成，但是热能从何而来？
Bolivian gas might have been an option. But, because of the nationalisation, Bolivia may struggle to expand output, despite a deal this month under which Venezuela will invest $600m. Bolivia is committed to expanding exports to Argentina, rather than Brazil. And Bolivian officials are furious about the Madeira dams. They claim these will raise water levels in their country, perhaps encouraging malaria and displacing families and wildlife. After a meeting on August 3rd in São Paulo, Bolivia's deputy environment minister threatened “all necessary measures, legal and international” if the dams go ahead. That could include reducing gas exports.
玻利维亚的天然气本来是个选择，但是因为玻要实现资源国有化，它可能会努力扩大产出，尽管本月它还与委内瑞拉签署了一份协议，其中委将注资６亿美元。玻利维亚的目的是扩大对阿根廷的出口，而不是巴西。另外，玻政府对马代拉水坝计划是大发雷霆，声称其国内的水位会因此上升，从而可能令疟疾横行，百姓和动物们放弃家园。在８月３日于巴西圣保罗的一次会议之后，玻环境副部长威胁说，如果水坝项目一意孤行，他们将采取“所有必要的措施，合法的而且国际性的措施”，这其中就可能包括减少天然气出口。
Brazil insists it has a sovereign right to go ahead with the dams. Evo Morales, Bolivia's president, should stop “sticking his beak” into Brazil's affairs, says Ivo Cassol, the governor of Rondônia.
巴西则坚持认为，对水坝计划它拥有完全独立的权利，朗多尼亚州长Ivo Cassol表示，玻总统埃沃·莫拉莱斯（Evo Morales）不应该再“把他的鼻子”伸入巴西的事务中。
Another possibility is to generate electricity from sugar cane, in conjunction with ethanol production, though the technology for this is still fairly new. Using sugar cane, Brazil produces far more ethanol per hectare, with fewer emissions, than the United States does with its corn-based equivalent. McKinsey, a consultancy, reckons that if the area under sugar cane were doubled, fertiliser applied and farming mechanised, Brazil's ethanol output would increase from 17 billion litres (4.5 billion American gallons) a year today to 160 billion litres by 2020.
另一个选择是用甘蔗来发电（这源自从甘蔗中提取酒精），尽管这项技术才刚刚起步。利用甘蔗，巴西每公顷的酒精产量要远远超过美国同等面积的玉米酒精产量，而排放物则减少。据麦肯锡咨询公司（McKinsey）估计，如果甘蔗种植面积加倍，并施以充足的化肥和进行机械化耕作，巴西的酒精产量将从现在每年的170亿公升提升至2020年的1600亿公升。
But ramping up ethanol production has drawbacks. Although very little of Brazil's sugar cane is grown in the Amazon region, expanding the crop could put pressure on the rainforest nonetheless, by pushing ranching and soyabean farming farther into the interior.
但是骤然加大酒精产量会遇到一些不利条件。虽说巴西在亚马逊河流域种植的甘蔗很少，但扩大耕作面积仍然会给雨林生态增添压力，因为农场的经营和大豆的耕种被迫向雨林内部深入。
Environmentalists argue that Brazil could do much more to conserve energy. But that is a long-term effort. The country faces difficult trade-offs between development and the environment. As Jerson Kelman, the electricity regulator, notes, it would be ironic if green opposition to dams means that Brazil ends up using more oil to keep the lights on.
环境保护者认为，巴西可以采取更多的措施来节约能源，不过这需要长期的努力。现在这个国家面临着发展与环境之间权衡利弊的难题，正如其电监局总裁Jerson Kelman所说，如果水坝无法做到环保，而巴西最终将需要更多的石油才能让灯不会熄灭，这就太具讽刺意味了。发表于10:33 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0
服装：孟加拉追赶中国
2007-08-24
[2007.08.18] Garments in BangladeshGarments in Bangladesh
孟加拉的服装
Knitting pretty
密针细线
Aug 16th 2007 | DHAKA
From The Economist print edition
The clothing business is flourishing despite Chinese competition
虽然有中国货竞争,服装生意仍蒸蒸日上
THE garment trade in Bangladesh, as in many poor countries, sprang up solely because of preferential access to important markets such as the European Union (EU) and America. So when the rules governing exports to rich countries were changed at the beginning of 2005, Bangladeshis feared huge job losses. Once the quotas that had guaranteed a share of the market to all exporting countries were abolished, they assumed, China would hoover up all the jobs in the industry.
如其他穷国一样,孟加拉国的服装生意在进入欧联及美国等主要国家后就立即蓬勃发展了。当2005年初改变向富裕国家出口政策后，孟加拉人们担心损失大量就业机会。当原来保证出口国家市场份额的配额制度取消时，他们估计中国会将纺织服装业的就业一扫而光。
Yet Bangladesh's garment exports are booming. Last year, it sent clothes worth $8.9 billion to rich countries. Revenues from the garment trade account for about 80% of all exports and are double the remittances sent home by Bangladeshis working overseas—the economy's other pillar. The country has made use of its labour, its only abundant resource. Wages are lower than in China, India, Cambodia or Vietnam, its main competitors. About 2m people—90% of them women—work in the rag trade, and another 15m jobs depend indirectly on making clothes, through firms that produce thread, buttons and textiles. On today's trends, Bangladesh's garment exports will soon overtake those of its giant neighbour, India.
但是孟加拉国的服装行业正在蒸蒸日上。去年，孟加拉国向富裕国家出口了价值89亿美金的服装。服装行业贸易收入占了总出口收入的80%，是孟加拉国另一经济支柱，外劳收入的两倍。孟加拉国在利用人力，这个国家唯一的丰富资源。这里的工资比那些主要竞争对手，中国，印度，柬埔寨，或越南都要低。有200万人在服装业工作，其中90%是妇女。还有1500万人间接服务于服装业，制造缝纫线，纽扣，及纺织等。按照目前的趋势，孟加拉国的服装出口很快就会超过其强大的邻国，印度的服装出口量了。
Cheap labour, along with a reluctance among buyers to rely on China for all their purchases, appears to have won the Bangladeshi industry a reprieve. But the recent growth in exports to its two biggest markets, the EU and America, has occurred since the pair imposed transitionary restrictions on Chinese exports, which end next year. Meanwhile, in Canada, the only big market that places no restrictions on China, Bangladesh has lost market share.
有便宜的劳工，加上那些购买者不愿仅购买中国货，这使得孟加拉服装业松了一口气。但是，目前的出口增加是由于那两个最大的市场，欧盟及美国向中国产品施行了进口过渡限制，而这限制明年将被取消。同时，在加拿大，这唯一没有向中国产品施行限制的国家，孟加拉国的服装产品损失了市场份额。
To reduce the risk of a similar setback in America, Bangladesh has enlisted Muhammad Yunus, its Nobel prize-winning micro-credit pioneer, to lobby for duty-free access, “to put Bangladesh on par with other least developed countries”. But bosses fear that the stricter labour standards that would accompany such a concession might outweigh the benefits. Most garment workers are not unionised, although big protests did force the government to announce a near doubling of the minimum wage to Tk1662 ($25) a month last year—the first increase since 1994.
为了减少在美国损失市场份额的风险，孟加拉国启用了微贷款先驱，诺贝尔奖获得者穆罕默德.与努斯为其产品免税做游说，“将孟加拉国与其他不发达国家同等对待”。但是那些老板担心随之而来的会是更严格的劳工标准，冲减由此免税而获得的收益。多数服装工人都没有加入工会，但是，去年的大游行强迫政府宣布将最低工资几乎增加一倍，达到每个月TK1662（25美金）。这也是1994年来第一次增加最低工资。
Bangladesh is most competitive in knitwear, which has grown from 15% of its garment exports in the early 1990s to over half this year. The secret is the inputs, some three-quarters of which are made locally. That saves firms the transport and storage costs, import duties and long lead-times that come with the imported “woven” fabric used to make shirts and trousers. It also entitles them to duty-free access to the European Union. “In the long-run, the woven garment sector will probably leave Bangladesh”, says Mohammed Quasem, a knitwear tycoon whose latest factory is about to start up in the town of Gazipur with 10,000 workers.
孟加拉国最有竞争力的是针织产品，其在服装出口的比例从1990年代初期的15%增加到去年的50%强。其秘诀是投入，接近75%的原料是由本地生产的。这为那些企业节省了运输及仓储费用，进口关税及进口制造衬衫及长裤的“纺织”面料所需的订货周期。而且这也使孟加拉厂商在欧盟得到免税进口优惠。“从长期看,针织服装业可能会离开孟加拉国”，针织巨头穆罕默德.卡西姆如是说。他最新的，雇用10000名工人的工厂将在格吉普开工。
In the short run, garment-makers of all stripes are simply trying to survive an indiscriminate anti-corruption drive launched by Bangladesh's recently installed military regime—a disadvantage for which neither low wages nor trade preferences can compensate.
从短期看，各类服装业者仅仅是争取在由孟加拉最近建立的军政权领导的那无区别的反腐运动中生存下来。而这军政权的伤害却是低工资或贸易优惠永远不能弥补的。 发表于10:28 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0
宝马：氢能7系轿车
2007-08-24
[2007.08.16]First Americans Set to Drive the BMW Hydrogen 7 on U.S. RoadwaysFirst Americans Set to Drive the BMW Hydrogen 7 on U.S. Roadways
WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., Aug. 16 /PRNewswire/ -- BMW today announced the launch of the Hydrogen 7 Pioneer Program as it handed over the keys of a BMW Hydrogen 7 -- the first hydrogen-powered luxury sedan -- to Hollywood actor Will Ferrell. Through the Hydrogen 7 Pioneer Program, BMW will give industry leaders and prominent figures in entertainment, politics, business and more a BMW Hydrogen 7 for their daily use.
宝马汽车公司日前推出了作为市场先驱的装载液态氢燃料的氢能7系轿车，这是世界上第一款豪华氢气动力轿车，它的钥匙已经交给了好莱坞影星威尔·法瑞尔。宝马计划将为娱乐、政界、商业要人提供氢能7系轿车。
In launching the program, BMW underscores the fact that the BMW Hydrogen 7 is not a concept car, but a production model vehicle that has successfully completed the entire Product Development Process, meeting all the standards necessary for driving on U.S. roadways. Running in hydrogen mode, the BMW Hydrogen 7 essentially emits nothing but water vapor, representing a major step in reducing harmful CO2 emissions. During the program, 25 of the 100 cars that are produced will be used in evaluation programs in the US. The BMW Hydrogen 7 is not for sale, but is considered to be a milestone in bringing forward hydrogen as the sustainable fuel for individual transportation.
宝马公司强调，氢能7系并不是一种概念车,目前量产车型的车辆已经完成整个产品开发过程。氢能7系满足了在美国驾驶所必须具备的条件。氢能7系以氢气作为燃料，排放的基本是水蒸气，有效降低了二氧化碳的排放量。目前宝马已制造出100辆氢能7系，其中25辆用于评估测试。宝马氢能7系虽然暂不出售,但它是推动氢能替代燃料的里程碑。
BMW believes hydrogen will replace petroleum as the long-term alternative to fossil fuel, and hopes the Hydrogen 7 will play a pioneering role in driving forward the hydrogen technologies that will ensure our mobility in the future.
宝马集团认为，氢将取代石油作为长期替代化石燃料，并希望氢能7系发挥先锋作用，推动氢气技术，成为未来汽车工业的保证。
Thus, the hydrogen pioneers will be instrumental in helping people understand that hydrogen technology is here, it is now and it is what BMW Group believe holds the key to our future mobility. By harnessing the power and influence of individuals who, like Will Ferrell, are at the forefront of their respective disciplines, BMW hopes to continue to generate support of hydrogen-drive vehicles in the short term and stimulate demand for a viable hydrogen infrastructure in the long-term.
氢能先锋计划将帮助人们了解氢能技术,宝马集团相信已经拿到未来成功的钥匙。宝马公司利用像威尔·法瑞尔那样的名流作宣传，支持氢驱动汽车，希望拉动长期需求。
Ferrell is the first in a series of Americans who BMW plans to announce in the coming months that will help the company in its mission to build widespread support of hydrogen as a viable alternative to fossil fuels.
在今后几个月中，法瑞尔将成为宝马公司的形象代言人，他的使命是推广并宣传氢气是一种可行的替代矿物燃料。
While Ferrell and BMW's future hydrogen pioneers will become the first group to be given access to the BMW Hydrogen 7 in the US for a longer period of use, a number of entertainers, politicians, business leaders and more have opted for a BMW Hydrogen 7 as their energy-efficient ride of choice. Those who have recently chosen the vehicle include Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie at the "Ocean's 13" premiere in Hollywood; Fox Entertainment Chairman Peter Liguori at the FOX All-Star Party in Santa Monica; Richard Gere and Sharon Stone at the Cinema for Peace Gala in Berlin; and "An Inconvenient Truth" producer Davis Guggenheim (Oscar(R) for the best Documentary Feature) and Best Foreign Language Film Oscar(R) winner, director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck at the 2007 Academy Awards; among others. The vehicle has also made an impact oversees, with luminaries such as Michael Glos, German Federal Minister for Economy and Technology, and Gunter Verheugen, Vice President of the European Commission, world renowned soprano Anna Netrebko and many others covering more than 1.3 million miles worldwide till now.
其他许多知名艺人,政界人士,商界领袖,也将成为首批在美国试驾氢能7系的人。那些新近挑选车辆的人包括在"十三罗汉"首映好莱坞时到场的布拉德·皮特和安吉丽娜·朱莉夫妇;在福克斯的全明星党在圣莫尼卡举行的舞会上出现的福克斯娱乐集团主席彼得·利高瑞、在柏林和平晚会出现的理查德基尔与莎朗史东; 荣获奥斯卡最佳纪录片提名的"难以忽视的真相"导演戴维斯古根海姆和出席了2007年奥斯卡颁奖典礼的奥斯卡最佳外语片得主弗洛兰·汉克尔·唐纳斯马克等等。这种汽车与名人之间也产生了互相影响监督的作用（汗。。不知道什么意思）。如德国联邦经济和技术部长米夏埃尔格洛斯,欧洲委员会副会特费尔霍伊长,世界著名女高音安娜布科和其他许多人，到目前为止有意向试用氢动力车的买主遍布世界各地，面积超过130万公里.
BMW Group In America
BMW of North America, LLC has been present in the United States since 1975. Rolls-Royce Motor Cars NA, LLC began distributing vehicles in 2003. The BMW Group in the United States has grown to include marketing, sales, and financial service organizations for the BMW brand of motor vehicles, including motorcycles, the MINI brand, and the Rolls-Royce brand of Motor Cars; DesignworksUSA, an industrial design firm in California; a technology office in Silicon Valley and various other operations throughout the country. BMW Manufacturing Co., LLC in South Carolina is part of BMW Group's global manufacturing network and is the exclusive manufacturing plant for all Z4 models and X5 Sports Activity Vehicles. The BMW Group sales organization is represented in the U.S. through networks of 338 BMW passenger car centers, 335 BMW Sports Activity Vehicle centers, 142 BMW motorcycle retailers, 81 MINI passenger car dealers, and 30 Rolls-Royce Motor Car dealers. BMW (US) Holding Corp., the BMW Group's sales headquarters for North, Central and South America, is located in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.
宝马汽车北美公司、LLC自1975年一直驻扎在美国.当劳斯莱斯公司2003年开始派发车辆时.宝马集团在美国已发展到集合营销、销售和金融服务为一体的机动车品牌服务行业,销售的产品包括摩托车,迷你品牌,劳斯莱斯品牌的汽车;美国设计公司就在加州;科技厅在硅谷和其他各项业务则分布在美国各地.在南卡罗莱纳州的宝马汽车制造公司是宝马集团的全球生产网络之一,并独家生产厂的所有型号的z4和x5系列的车辆.宝马小组销售组织代表在美国有338 个客车中心、335 个体育活动车中心、142 个摩托车销售中新、81 位微型客车经销商, 和30 位劳斯莱斯汽车经销商网络。宝马集团的销售总部设在美国北部, 中部和南部交界的地方, 位于新泽西州的伍德克利夫湖附近。
注：我采用的翻译方法是不同于直译与意译的编译，即以新闻语言的标准，剔除政治、禁区、重复罗嗦、常识等等因素，整理出来的文字。如需转载，请注明作者戴宁，谢谢合作o(∩_∩)o。。。